※ 引述《GARYKOU (竹竹)》之銘言： : 就是...我打實況野球的時候突然想到的... : 遊戲裡頭不是會有紫色臉...黃色臉...紅色臉... : 之類的...表示打者當天的狀況... : 然後還有一種特性...是說...比較不會受當天的狀況所影響... : 我想問的是...有沒有人做過這樣的比較呢?... : 比如說...比較某位球員一季中每一場比賽的 OPS 的標準差.. : 比較小的應該就是比較不會受狀況起伏影響?... : 或者是說...某些球員的打擊貢獻都集中在少部分的幾場比賽中... : 其他比賽就鳥鳥的?... : 不知道底巴格大或是其他大大有沒有看過類似的研究呢?.. 目前沒有定論，有些人似乎認為所謂的高低潮只是單純的random chance， 不過我認為球員的確是會有狀況起伏的。有時候好成績的確只是由於如運氣 等外在因素造成的，不過有的球員在某段時間和另一段時間的確看起來真的 就不太像是同一個人，讓人很難相信沒有所謂的hot這回事。由於我自己面對 較高水準投手的機會沒那麼多，遇到時有時候打得不錯，有時候被電，但沒 有真正這種所謂play over head的經驗，被電也不是狀況差只是對手比我強 。而平常面對沒那麼厲害的投手時，I was always hot. But that's because I'm better, not hot. 而至於有沒有球員特別streaky或特別steady，我想也是不容易區別出來的， 球員的能力在變、健康在變、環境在變、運氣在變，要在眾多noise中抓出 一個小因素的影響是不容易的，這跟clutch hitting有點類似。 下面截錄一段James的文章： This almost becomes a brain teaser. Most baseball fans believe that players get “hot” and “cold.” Many analysts believe (and a popular web site is devoted to proving) that this is nonsense, that hot streaks and cold streaks are just random clusters. Everyone agrees that a hot streak is a transient phenomenon. Therefore, why doesn’t everyone agree that it is a non-real phenomenon—a random sequence? Because people believe that there is some persistence to the transient phenomenon—in other words, that the persistence is not zero. My opinion is that, at this point, no one has made a compelling argument either in favor of or against the hot-hand phenomenon. The methods that are used to prove that a hot hitter is not really hot, in my opinion, would reach this conclusion whether hot hitters in fact existed or whether they did not. Stated another way, the hot-hand opponents are arguing—or seem to me to be arguing—that the absence of proof is proof. The absence of clear proof that hot hands exist is proof that they don't. I am arguing that it is not. The argument against hot streaks is based on the assumption that this analysis would detect hot streaks if they existed, rather than on the proven fact. Whether hot streaks exist or do not I do not know—but I think the assumption is false. -- My Baseball Blog http://www.wretch.cc/blog/andrenomo --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.35.24.198 ※ 編輯: Andre 來自: 218.35.24.198 (04/12 15:41)