※ 引述《GARYKOU (竹竹)》之铭言： : 就是...我打实况野球的时候突然想到的... : 游戏里头不是会有紫色脸...黄色脸...红色脸... : 之类的...表示打者当天的状况... : 然後还有一种特性...是说...比较不会受当天的状况所影响... : 我想问的是...有没有人做过这样的比较呢?... : 比如说...比较某位球员一季中每一场比赛的 OPS 的标准差.. : 比较小的应该就是比较不会受状况起伏影响?... : 或者是说...某些球员的打击贡献都集中在少部分的几场比赛中... : 其他比赛就鸟鸟的?... : 不知道底巴格大或是其他大大有没有看过类似的研究呢?.. 目前没有定论，有些人似乎认为所谓的高低潮只是单纯的random chance， 不过我认为球员的确是会有状况起伏的。有时候好成绩的确只是由於如运气 等外在因素造成的，不过有的球员在某段时间和另一段时间的确看起来真的 就不太像是同一个人，让人很难相信没有所谓的hot这回事。由於我自己面对 较高水准投手的机会没那麽多，遇到时有时候打得不错，有时候被电，但没 有真正这种所谓play over head的经验，被电也不是状况差只是对手比我强 。而平常面对没那麽厉害的投手时，I was always hot. But that's because I'm better, not hot. 而至於有没有球员特别streaky或特别steady，我想也是不容易区别出来的， 球员的能力在变、健康在变、环境在变、运气在变，要在众多noise中抓出 一个小因素的影响是不容易的，这跟clutch hitting有点类似。 下面截录一段James的文章： This almost becomes a brain teaser. Most baseball fans believe that players get “hot” and “cold.” Many analysts believe (and a popular web site is devoted to proving) that this is nonsense, that hot streaks and cold streaks are just random clusters. Everyone agrees that a hot streak is a transient phenomenon. Therefore, why doesn’t everyone agree that it is a non-real phenomenon—a random sequence? Because people believe that there is some persistence to the transient phenomenon—in other words, that the persistence is not zero. My opinion is that, at this point, no one has made a compelling argument either in favor of or against the hot-hand phenomenon. The methods that are used to prove that a hot hitter is not really hot, in my opinion, would reach this conclusion whether hot hitters in fact existed or whether they did not. Stated another way, the hot-hand opponents are arguing—or seem to me to be arguing—that the absence of proof is proof. The absence of clear proof that hot hands exist is proof that they don't. I am arguing that it is not. The argument against hot streaks is based on the assumption that this analysis would detect hot streaks if they existed, rather than on the proven fact. Whether hot streaks exist or do not I do not know—but I think the assumption is false. -- My Baseball Blog http://www.wretch.cc/blog/andrenomo --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.35.24.198 ※ 编辑: Andre 来自: 218.35.24.198 (04/12 15:41)