從 ptt2 轉來的^^ ============================================================================== The oiloholics 不「油」自主 Aug 25th 2005 From The Economist print edition Oil prices could yet go higher—unless the world's biggest gas guzzlers curb their thirst 石油消費大國不加節制，油價恐怕持續攀升。 THE price of oil affects the cost of almost everything. It helps determine not just the cost of driving to work or flying off on holiday, but also the cost of furniture, food and anything else which has to be transported from factory to shop floor. The past three global recessions were all triggered by a jump in oil prices. Thus, it should be alarming that oil prices have more than tripled since late 2001. So far, though, the world economy has held up remarkably well: global GDP growth is strong and inflation remains modest. How long can this continue? 油價影響生活的每個細節。除了到底要不要開車上班、是否週末坐飛機度假，它同時 影響所有需要從工廠運輸到店面的商品，包括傢俱、食物等的價格。過去三次的全球經 濟蕭條全都肇因於油價的突然飆漲。值得注意的是，從2001年底以來，油價已然翻了三 倍，然而截至目前，世界經濟狀況都維持地極佳: 世界GDP的成長力道仍然強勁；物價膨 脹低而持平。這是怎麼一回事? The optimists point to a host of reasons for why “this time is different” and why high oil prices will not trigger a global downturn. For example, it is claimed that in real terms, adjusted by consumer prices, oil is still cheap. Most businessmen reckon that is tosh: relative to producer-output prices, real crude oil prices are now close to a record high (see article). In any case, the notion that rising oil prices have no economic impact until they hit the previous peak in real terms is ridiculous. 為何這次油價攀升並未引起全球的經濟低迷? 樂觀的分析師歸納出許多原因。例如， 他們認為，在經過消費者物價指數的調整後，原油在實質價格上還是相對便宜。絕大 多數的企業家則認為他們在胡扯: 相對於產出價格，目前原油價格幾乎達歷史新高， 聲稱原油價格必須達歷史高點才會衝擊經濟，相當可笑。 Roll out the barrel 給我石油，其餘免談 The main reason why high oil prices have so far not kiboshed the world economy is that cheap money has supported spending sprees and housing bubbles in many countries, notably America, which have offset the impact of dearer oil. The two main engines for the world, the United States and China (also the two biggest oil consumers), have both had their growth boosted by lax monetary conditions in the past couple of years. Indeed high oil prices can partly be seen as a consequence of low interest rates. The two most important prices in the world economy are the price of oil and the price of money, and they are linked. If interest rates are abnormally low (in bond yields as well as short-term rates), then as global demand increases in response, oil prices should rise—especially if production capacity is tight, as it is today. 偏高的石油價格至今尚未搞砸世界經濟。主要原因是，許多國家(特別是美國)偏低利率 的資金來源，造成的大量消費和不動產的投資，抵銷了昂貴石油造成的衝擊。世界兩大生 產國(同時也是兩個最大的石油消費國)，美國和中國都因為寬鬆的貨幣供應，經濟在近年 大幅成長。石油價格高漲，當然一部份是利率低的結果。影響世界經濟的最主要兩個因 素，分別是石油價格和貨幣價格，而兩者息息相關。如果利率(在債券收益中等同於短期利 率)異常降低，則世界的經濟需求提高，石油價格應聲上漲，生產力吃緊時尤是，如今更 是。 So referring to the recent climb in oil prices as a “shock” is misleading. The market is simply responding to stronger oil demand on the back of a strong world economy. The increases in both global GDP and global oil consumption last year were the biggest for almost 30 years. Rising oil prices may even be read as a signal that global economic growth has been more rapid than existing output capacity can sustain. Normally, bond yields would perform that role. But the bond market has been behaving mighty oddly, with yields falling over the past year. The rising oil price is thus taking some of the job of constraining the world economy away from higher interest rates. From this point of view, a high oil price is quite healthy, a way of helping to prevent the global economy from overheating. A much more efficient solution would be tighter global monetary conditions. But tighter money now risks pushing the housing and borrowing booms into reverse, tipping economies into recession. 最近油價攀升不是突如奇來，而是強勁的世界經濟發展下，市場反映更多石油需求的結 果。去年全球GDP成長和石油消費額都為三十年來最高，高漲的油價亦可解讀為全球經濟 成長之速，已超過現有生產力所能負荷。一般情況下，債券收益才能透露這個訊息，但 債券市場近年表現古怪，收益不斷下探，因而油價上升可代為控制利率不偏高。由此看來 ，高油價反而有益，使世界經濟不致過熱。一個更有效的做法是緊縮貨幣供給，但同時 也可能使房市與借貸市場降溫，使世界經濟陷入蕭條。 Moreover, even if rising oil prices are a natural market response to rising demand, they can still have nasty consequences for slower-growing economies, such as Europe's. Excessive growth in demand in America and China is, in effect, imposing a tax on others by pushing world prices higher than they would otherwise be. Even more serious, with little spare capacity in the oil industry , such rapid growth in consumption leaves the market vulnerable to any supply disruption, like those that initiated previous oil shocks. 此外，就算油價上漲是市場對於需求提升的自然反應，仍可能對於成長較緩的經濟體造成 巨大傷害，例如歐洲。在美國和中國的超額成長，造成價格上揚，可以視同對於其他國家 的增稅。更嚴重者，偏低的石油庫存，使市場在強勁的消費需求下，任何供貨中斷的情況 都可能造成價格震盪，前幾次的原油價格震盪就是如此。 This effect is exacerbated by the fact that the economies that are currently growing the fastest tend also to be the least efficient users of oil. To produce one dollar of GDP, emerging economies use more than twice as much oil as developed economies. Many emerging economies, including China and India, subsidise oil. Insulated from the reality of rising world prices, consumers guzzle more oil than if they had to pay full market prices. This, in turn, pushes global oil prices higher. 目前經濟成長最快的國家，往往也是石油利用效率最差的，這也使效應加劇。開發中國家 每生產一塊錢的GDP，較已開發國家用了兩倍的石油。在許多開發中國家中，如中國和印 度，政府補助石油消費，消費者對於世界油價毫無意識，會比在負擔全額價格下消費更多 的石油，因而油價更快速地上升。 Such pressures are likely to grow. The IMF forecasts that over the next five years emerging economies could account for almost three-quarters of the increase in world oil demand. China has single-handedly accounted for one-third of the growth in global oil demand since 2000. With China's oil consumption per person still only one-fifteenth of that in America, it is inevitable that its energy demands will increase over the coming years if its income does too. But China's consumption is also being inflated because domestic petrol prices have not been allowed to rise as fast as crude prices. It is time for governments to scrap price controls and subsidies to allow the market's price signals to get through to consumers. 油價上揚的壓力可能還會增高。IMF(國際貨幣基金組織)預測，未來五年內，新興經濟國 會包辦3/4的石油需求成長，單是中國在2000年就已經佔了石油需求成長的1/3。而目前中 國的每人石油消費只是美國的1/5，未來中國的收入增加，能源需求必定上升。因為燃料 價格受到管制，不隨國際原油價格起伏，中國目前有消費膨脹的趨勢。中國政府應該開放 價格管制，停止油料補助，使價格訊息能達消費者。 It is easy to point a finger at China's growing oil demand (which has in fact cooled off this year), but America remains the biggest consumer, using one-quarter of the world's output of the black stuff. America uses 50% more oil per dollar of GDP than the European Union, largely because consumers pay less. As petrol prices have hit $3 a gallon in some cities, there has been an outcry from motorists. Even so, petrol remains dirt cheap in America, compared with Britain or Germany where prices are above $6 a gallon. America's heavy dependence on oil not only leaves the economy more vulnerable to a supply shock, it also pushes prices higher for the rest of the world. 在矛頭對向中國的同時，別忘了美國仍是最大的石油消費國，獨占全球1/4的「黑金」輸 出。美國的石油/GDP值，仍比歐盟高了50%，可歸因於消費者花費較少。即使在某些城市， 石油燃料達$USD 3/加侖，車主連連抗議，然而美國的燃料相對英國、德國等$USD 6/加侖 的價格來說還是便宜地不得了。美國過於倚賴石油，一方面使美國經濟承受不起石油供 應中斷的衝擊，同時也使世界其他國家必須負擔更高的價格。 Time for a cure 該「戒油」了 The best long-term solution—for America as well as the world economy—would b e higher petrol taxes in the United States. Alas, there is little prospect of that happening. America, unlike Europe, has preferred fuel-economy regulations to petrol taxes. But even with those it has failed abysmally. These regulations have been so abused that the oil efficiency of its vehicles has fallen to a 20-year low. This week, the Bush administration announced proposals for changing the fuel-economy rules governing trucks and sport-utility vehicles, but failed to close loopholes that allow these gas guzzlers to use more petrol than normal cars, a shameful concession to carmakers. 對於美國或世界其他國家，能夠治本的作法是提高石油燃料稅，但實行的可能性相當低 。美國不同於歐陸，較傾向使用管制燃料使用的政策--儘管這些政策一敗塗地。濫用燃料 管制的結果是，車輛的燃油利用率達二十年的新低。這星期，布希政府公佈新的燃料節約 政策草案，主要內容在管制貨車與休旅車(SUV)。但草案並未防止這些耗油車種使用更多 的汽油。這樣等同於向汽車製造商讓步，並不光彩。 America and China, in their different ways, are drunk on oil consumption. The longer they put off taking the steps needed to curb their habit, the worse the headache will be. George Bush once learned that lesson about alcohol. It is time for him to wean America off oiloholism too. 如果以喝酒比喻用油，美國和中國都是不「油」自主的酒鬼。拖延戒酒，之後頭只會更痛 。布希學過當酒鬼的教訓，現在也該運用這經驗，教教美國人怎麼「戒油」。 --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.229.75.72