从 ptt2 转来的^^ ============================================================================== The oiloholics 不「油」自主 Aug 25th 2005 From The Economist print edition Oil prices could yet go higher—unless the world's biggest gas guzzlers curb their thirst 石油消费大国不加节制，油价恐怕持续攀升。 THE price of oil affects the cost of almost everything. It helps determine not just the cost of driving to work or flying off on holiday, but also the cost of furniture, food and anything else which has to be transported from factory to shop floor. The past three global recessions were all triggered by a jump in oil prices. Thus, it should be alarming that oil prices have more than tripled since late 2001. So far, though, the world economy has held up remarkably well: global GDP growth is strong and inflation remains modest. How long can this continue? 油价影响生活的每个细节。除了到底要不要开车上班、是否周末坐飞机度假，它同时 影响所有需要从工厂运输到店面的商品，包括家俱、食物等的价格。过去三次的全球经 济萧条全都肇因於油价的突然飙涨。值得注意的是，从2001年底以来，油价已然翻了三 倍，然而截至目前，世界经济状况都维持地极佳: 世界GDP的成长力道仍然强劲；物价膨 胀低而持平。这是怎麽一回事? The optimists point to a host of reasons for why “this time is different” and why high oil prices will not trigger a global downturn. For example, it is claimed that in real terms, adjusted by consumer prices, oil is still cheap. Most businessmen reckon that is tosh: relative to producer-output prices, real crude oil prices are now close to a record high (see article). In any case, the notion that rising oil prices have no economic impact until they hit the previous peak in real terms is ridiculous. 为何这次油价攀升并未引起全球的经济低迷? 乐观的分析师归纳出许多原因。例如， 他们认为，在经过消费者物价指数的调整後，原油在实质价格上还是相对便宜。绝大 多数的企业家则认为他们在胡扯: 相对於产出价格，目前原油价格几乎达历史新高， 声称原油价格必须达历史高点才会冲击经济，相当可笑。 Roll out the barrel 给我石油，其余免谈 The main reason why high oil prices have so far not kiboshed the world economy is that cheap money has supported spending sprees and housing bubbles in many countries, notably America, which have offset the impact of dearer oil. The two main engines for the world, the United States and China (also the two biggest oil consumers), have both had their growth boosted by lax monetary conditions in the past couple of years. Indeed high oil prices can partly be seen as a consequence of low interest rates. The two most important prices in the world economy are the price of oil and the price of money, and they are linked. If interest rates are abnormally low (in bond yields as well as short-term rates), then as global demand increases in response, oil prices should rise—especially if production capacity is tight, as it is today. 偏高的石油价格至今尚未搞砸世界经济。主要原因是，许多国家(特别是美国)偏低利率 的资金来源，造成的大量消费和不动产的投资，抵销了昂贵石油造成的冲击。世界两大生 产国(同时也是两个最大的石油消费国)，美国和中国都因为宽松的货币供应，经济在近年 大幅成长。石油价格高涨，当然一部份是利率低的结果。影响世界经济的最主要两个因 素，分别是石油价格和货币价格，而两者息息相关。如果利率(在债券收益中等同於短期利 率)异常降低，则世界的经济需求提高，石油价格应声上涨，生产力吃紧时尤是，如今更 是。 So referring to the recent climb in oil prices as a “shock” is misleading. The market is simply responding to stronger oil demand on the back of a strong world economy. The increases in both global GDP and global oil consumption last year were the biggest for almost 30 years. Rising oil prices may even be read as a signal that global economic growth has been more rapid than existing output capacity can sustain. Normally, bond yields would perform that role. But the bond market has been behaving mighty oddly, with yields falling over the past year. The rising oil price is thus taking some of the job of constraining the world economy away from higher interest rates. From this point of view, a high oil price is quite healthy, a way of helping to prevent the global economy from overheating. A much more efficient solution would be tighter global monetary conditions. But tighter money now risks pushing the housing and borrowing booms into reverse, tipping economies into recession. 最近油价攀升不是突如奇来，而是强劲的世界经济发展下，市场反映更多石油需求的结 果。去年全球GDP成长和石油消费额都为三十年来最高，高涨的油价亦可解读为全球经济 成长之速，已超过现有生产力所能负荷。一般情况下，债券收益才能透露这个讯息，但 债券市场近年表现古怪，收益不断下探，因而油价上升可代为控制利率不偏高。由此看来 ，高油价反而有益，使世界经济不致过热。一个更有效的做法是紧缩货币供给，但同时 也可能使房市与借贷市场降温，使世界经济陷入萧条。 Moreover, even if rising oil prices are a natural market response to rising demand, they can still have nasty consequences for slower-growing economies, such as Europe's. Excessive growth in demand in America and China is, in effect, imposing a tax on others by pushing world prices higher than they would otherwise be. Even more serious, with little spare capacity in the oil industry , such rapid growth in consumption leaves the market vulnerable to any supply disruption, like those that initiated previous oil shocks. 此外，就算油价上涨是市场对於需求提升的自然反应，仍可能对於成长较缓的经济体造成 巨大伤害，例如欧洲。在美国和中国的超额成长，造成价格上扬，可以视同对於其他国家 的增税。更严重者，偏低的石油库存，使市场在强劲的消费需求下，任何供货中断的情况 都可能造成价格震荡，前几次的原油价格震荡就是如此。 This effect is exacerbated by the fact that the economies that are currently growing the fastest tend also to be the least efficient users of oil. To produce one dollar of GDP, emerging economies use more than twice as much oil as developed economies. Many emerging economies, including China and India, subsidise oil. Insulated from the reality of rising world prices, consumers guzzle more oil than if they had to pay full market prices. This, in turn, pushes global oil prices higher. 目前经济成长最快的国家，往往也是石油利用效率最差的，这也使效应加剧。开发中国家 每生产一块钱的GDP，较已开发国家用了两倍的石油。在许多开发中国家中，如中国和印 度，政府补助石油消费，消费者对於世界油价毫无意识，会比在负担全额价格下消费更多 的石油，因而油价更快速地上升。 Such pressures are likely to grow. The IMF forecasts that over the next five years emerging economies could account for almost three-quarters of the increase in world oil demand. China has single-handedly accounted for one-third of the growth in global oil demand since 2000. With China's oil consumption per person still only one-fifteenth of that in America, it is inevitable that its energy demands will increase over the coming years if its income does too. But China's consumption is also being inflated because domestic petrol prices have not been allowed to rise as fast as crude prices. It is time for governments to scrap price controls and subsidies to allow the market's price signals to get through to consumers. 油价上扬的压力可能还会增高。IMF(国际货币基金组织)预测，未来五年内，新兴经济国 会包办3/4的石油需求成长，单是中国在2000年就已经占了石油需求成长的1/3。而目前中 国的每人石油消费只是美国的1/5，未来中国的收入增加，能源需求必定上升。因为燃料 价格受到管制，不随国际原油价格起伏，中国目前有消费膨胀的趋势。中国政府应该开放 价格管制，停止油料补助，使价格讯息能达消费者。 It is easy to point a finger at China's growing oil demand (which has in fact cooled off this year), but America remains the biggest consumer, using one-quarter of the world's output of the black stuff. America uses 50% more oil per dollar of GDP than the European Union, largely because consumers pay less. As petrol prices have hit $3 a gallon in some cities, there has been an outcry from motorists. Even so, petrol remains dirt cheap in America, compared with Britain or Germany where prices are above $6 a gallon. America's heavy dependence on oil not only leaves the economy more vulnerable to a supply shock, it also pushes prices higher for the rest of the world. 在矛头对向中国的同时，别忘了美国仍是最大的石油消费国，独占全球1/4的「黑金」输 出。美国的石油/GDP值，仍比欧盟高了50%，可归因於消费者花费较少。即使在某些城市， 石油燃料达$USD 3/加仑，车主连连抗议，然而美国的燃料相对英国、德国等$USD 6/加仑 的价格来说还是便宜地不得了。美国过於倚赖石油，一方面使美国经济承受不起石油供 应中断的冲击，同时也使世界其他国家必须负担更高的价格。 Time for a cure 该「戒油」了 The best long-term solution—for America as well as the world economy—would b e higher petrol taxes in the United States. Alas, there is little prospect of that happening. America, unlike Europe, has preferred fuel-economy regulations to petrol taxes. But even with those it has failed abysmally. These regulations have been so abused that the oil efficiency of its vehicles has fallen to a 20-year low. This week, the Bush administration announced proposals for changing the fuel-economy rules governing trucks and sport-utility vehicles, but failed to close loopholes that allow these gas guzzlers to use more petrol than normal cars, a shameful concession to carmakers. 对於美国或世界其他国家，能够治本的作法是提高石油燃料税，但实行的可能性相当低 。美国不同於欧陆，较倾向使用管制燃料使用的政策--尽管这些政策一败涂地。滥用燃料 管制的结果是，车辆的燃油利用率达二十年的新低。这星期，布希政府公布新的燃料节约 政策草案，主要内容在管制货车与休旅车(SUV)。但草案并未防止这些耗油车种使用更多 的汽油。这样等同於向汽车制造商让步，并不光彩。 America and China, in their different ways, are drunk on oil consumption. The longer they put off taking the steps needed to curb their habit, the worse the headache will be. George Bush once learned that lesson about alcohol. It is time for him to wean America off oiloholism too. 如果以喝酒比喻用油，美国和中国都是不「油」自主的酒鬼。拖延戒酒，之後头只会更痛 。布希学过当酒鬼的教训，现在也该运用这经验，教教美国人怎麽「戒油」。 --

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