※ [本文轉錄自 historia 看板] 作者: MRZ (LQY) 看板: historia 標題: 軍事史之史觀理論020 時間: Tue Mar 15 16:52:01 2005 Looking, then, at the contemporary world, what kinds of knowledge of military/war history might be predicted to be in particular demand in the near future? To the present writer, it seems highly probable that it will be such knowledge as pertains closely to two conspicuous and interrelated military developments: the apparently increasing use of multinational military forces for peace-enforcing operations, and the tendency in Western Europe and elsewhere to replace the large conscript armies with small professional forces. The founders of research in military/war history will presumably call for broader and more intimate knowledge of past experiences of small-scale wars and coalition warfare; and also for such historical knowledge of certain parts or aspects of military life: of professionalism and processes of professionalization, of recruitment patterns and problems, of education and training, of various leadership models, and of the creating of 'spirit' and morale in collectives of various size and character. This is merely an attempt at a prognosis of the interests and demands of the research funders. And even assuming that it will prove essentially correct, there are also the historians themselves and the reading public to reckon with. So there is, not regrettably, a wide margin for other developments than those forecasted here. 那麼能否就戰史或軍史本身來鑑往知來﹐推測未來的戰爭形態呢﹖對於現今的作家 而言﹐參考今日國際局勢來看﹐軍事變化主要有兩項主流﹕一是聯合軍種作戰與國 際維持和平任務﹐將取代昔日的大規模全面戰爭﹔二是昔日歐式的大規模徵兵制陸 軍﹐將會被量小質精的募兵制陸軍所取代。於是今日西方軍事史學家的研究﹐也更 加著重在近代以前的小規模戰場或軍事聯盟性質的戰爭形態(譯者按﹕如拿破侖戰爭 時代或之前的歐洲戰爭)﹐要不然就是著重於軍事生活方面的研究﹕軍事專業主義的 定義﹑或軍事專業主義成形的過程﹑過去募兵制的情況與產生的問題﹑軍事教育與 訓練方式﹑軍事領導者的類型﹑或是所謂‘軍人魂’的類型與特徵。 這些研究者很少有意要提出什麼預言﹐即使他們之中有些人的預言到了後來果然成 真﹐這些歷史學者也很少向社會提出什麼建言。而這點對於未來的史學發展來說﹐ 並不算什麼令人覺得惋惜的現象。 -- 萬物皆非主，唯曼尼大神，至聖之先知，亞當史密斯。 La ilaha ill money，Adam Smith rasula'Llah 榮耀歸於曼尼。自宇宙之初成﹐貫古今與未來﹐直至永恆不滅。喀鏘！（收銀機響聲） Gloria patri Money. Sicut erat in principio, et nunc, et semper, et in saecula saeculorum.Ka-ching! --

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