※ [本文转录自 historia 看板] 作者: MRZ (LQY) 看板: historia 标题: 军事史之史观理论020 时间: Tue Mar 15 16:52:01 2005 Looking, then, at the contemporary world, what kinds of knowledge of military/war history might be predicted to be in particular demand in the near future? To the present writer, it seems highly probable that it will be such knowledge as pertains closely to two conspicuous and interrelated military developments: the apparently increasing use of multinational military forces for peace-enforcing operations, and the tendency in Western Europe and elsewhere to replace the large conscript armies with small professional forces. The founders of research in military/war history will presumably call for broader and more intimate knowledge of past experiences of small-scale wars and coalition warfare; and also for such historical knowledge of certain parts or aspects of military life: of professionalism and processes of professionalization, of recruitment patterns and problems, of education and training, of various leadership models, and of the creating of 'spirit' and morale in collectives of various size and character. This is merely an attempt at a prognosis of the interests and demands of the research funders. And even assuming that it will prove essentially correct, there are also the historians themselves and the reading public to reckon with. So there is, not regrettably, a wide margin for other developments than those forecasted here. 那麽能否就战史或军史本身来监往知来﹐推测未来的战争形态呢﹖对於现今的作家 而言﹐参考今日国际局势来看﹐军事变化主要有两项主流﹕一是联合军种作战与国 际维持和平任务﹐将取代昔日的大规模全面战争﹔二是昔日欧式的大规模徵兵制陆 军﹐将会被量小质精的募兵制陆军所取代。於是今日西方军事史学家的研究﹐也更 加着重在近代以前的小规模战场或军事联盟性质的战争形态(译者按﹕如拿破仑战争 时代或之前的欧洲战争)﹐要不然就是着重於军事生活方面的研究﹕军事专业主义的 定义﹑或军事专业主义成形的过程﹑过去募兵制的情况与产生的问题﹑军事教育与 训练方式﹑军事领导者的类型﹑或是所谓‘军人魂’的类型与特徵。 这些研究者很少有意要提出什麽预言﹐即使他们之中有些人的预言到了後来果然成 真﹐这些历史学者也很少向社会提出什麽建言。而这点对於未来的史学发展来说﹐ 并不算什麽令人觉得惋惜的现象。 -- 万物皆非主，唯曼尼大神，至圣之先知，亚当史密斯。 La ilaha ill money，Adam Smith rasula'Llah 荣耀归於曼尼。自宇宙之初成﹐贯古今与未来﹐直至永恒不灭。喀锵！（收银机响声） Gloria patri Money. Sicut erat in principio, et nunc, et semper, et in saecula saeculorum.Ka-ching! --

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