※ 引述《stasis (流雨風雪)》之銘言： : Trends : The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends. 趨勢是你的朋友，只除了在結尾它反轉的時候。 : == : Most traders agree they like to be long strong instruments. Traders agree : less on the definition of strong. Some definitions of strong from the web, 絕大多數的交易者都同意，他們喜歡做多強勢的金融工具。 交易者對於強勢的定義並不那麼一致。 從網路上找來的「強勢」的定義有： : include: : having strength or power greater than average or expected. : potent: having or wielding force or authority. : impregnable: able to withstand attack. 具備的強度或力量大於平均值或期望值。 有效力：具有力量或能施加影響的力量或權威。 堅定不移：能夠抵擋攻擊。 : None of these definitions seem to fit stocks, bonds or futures exactly. : Trading instruments do not possess muscles or authority or even a physical : structure. So traders who use the term strength, really mean something else, : likely, trending up. 這些定義，沒有一個精確的適用於股票、債券或期貨。 交易工具並不是肌肉，也不是權威，更不是有形的結構。 使用「強度」這個詞的交易者，其實是在講其他的東西， 很可能，他們是在講向上的趨勢。 : The preference for the word, strength over trending, may owe to the richness : and variety of gut associations people have with strong and the rather sparse : and obscure associations they have with with trend. 人們選擇的字彙，之所以選擇強度而非趨勢， 可能歸於人們對於對於「強度」的各式各樣直覺或心理因素， 以及人們對於趨勢的缺乏認識。 : A trend is a general drift or tendency in a set of data. All measurements of : trend involve taking a current reading and a historical reading and comparing : them. If the current reading is higher than the historical reading, we have : an up-trend. If lower, we have a down-trend. In the improbable event of an : exact match, we have a sideways trend. 趨勢是在一組資料中呈現的漂移的現象，或是某種傾向。 所有對於趨勢的測定方法，必須將一個當前的數字和一個歷史數字作比較。 如果當前的數字高於歷史數字，那麼我們就是在上升趨勢中。 如果是低於的話，它就是下降趨勢。 如果那麼剛好就相等的話，它就是側行趨勢。 : The direction of the trend depends upon the method we use to perform the : comparison. Real instruments fluctuate minute-to-minute, day-to-day and : year-to-year. We have, therefore an enormous supply of historical points to : use to determine trend. As such, we can determine as many instances of trend : as we please, in any direction that we please. 趨勢的方向決定於我們拿來比較的方法。 真實世界中的金融工具，每分鐘，每天，每年，都在不斷變動。 因此我們手上擁有非常充足的歷史資料來做比對，來判定趨勢的方向。 這樣一來，我們高興判定多少趨勢就判定多少，高興判定哪個方向就判定哪個方向。 : There is no such thing as the trend; there are countless trends, depending on : the method we use to determine a trend. People typically pick a method for : determining trend that fits with their current positions and/or view of the : market. 沒有唯一的趨勢這種東西。無數多的趨勢，取決於我們判定趨勢的方法。 人們通常都是選擇能夠和現有部位，或者現有看法吻合的方法，來判定趨勢。 : == : There's No Such Thing as an Uptrend Forever : Note: In the case of a monotonically increasing series, such as the balance : of a US dollar bank account with daily compounding interest, every price is : above all its predecessors. You can make a claim, then, that no matter how : you measure it, the trend is always up. 沒有永遠的上升趨勢這種東西。 註：在那種單一上升數列的例子中，例如每日計息的美金帳戶，每個價格都比前一個高。 那麼你就能主張，無論你如何測定趨勢，趨勢永遠是向上的。 : However, in a larger scope, in a world in which the US dollar fluctuates in : value relative to other currencies, and in which banks sometimes fail, a bank : account may not actually continue to be a long-term monotonic up-trend : investment. 然而，在大一點的時間格局中，美金和其他貨幣的相對價格不斷變動， 銀行有時也會倒，銀行帳戶可能就沒辦法成為一個長期上升趨勢的投資。 : Say we compound one penny at a three percent per year interest rate from year : Zero-AD to the present. We get about $5.48 * 10^23, or around a half : trillion trillion dollars. Clearly someone in those early days has a penny : earning interest, per stories of money lenders in temples. That no such : investment survives today indicates severe financial setbacks, from time to : time, in which people and whole societies experience collapse and have to : start over. Compounding interest seems to work pretty well for a few hundred : years at a time. 假設我們以複利計算，一分錢在每年3%的利率之下，從西元初到現在。 我們得到的數字大約是$5.48 * 10^23，也就是五千兆個一萬兆。 從廟宇的借貸歷史來看，很顯然當時有一分錢的人也可以拿得到利息。 而從現在看不到這種投資的狀況來看，表示金融的逆流。 從一個時代到另一個時代，人類和整個社會都歷經過崩塌，必須一次次重來。 複利這東西在幾百年的時間格局中，似乎都表現得不錯。 : == : All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical : price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is : no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend : might mean; we can only determine historical trends. 所有定義趨勢的方法都會比較各式的歷史價格點。 所有的趨勢都基於歷史，沒有單獨存活於現在的。 我們沒有辦法判定現今的趨勢，甚至沒辦法定義什麼叫做「現今的趨勢」， 我們能做的只是判定歷史趨勢。 : The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would : be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, : velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. : Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent : meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or : another view of history. 唯一能測定現今趨勢(也就是完全只存在於「現在」的趨勢)的方法，就是 從「現在」取出兩個點，然後計算它們的差異。 運動，速率，還有趨勢都不存在於「現在」。 他們不會在快照中出現。 趨勢不存在於「現在」，而所謂「唯一的趨勢」這東西也沒有意義。 當我們說趨勢，我們其實是在說歷史的一個角度。 : There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are : necessarily projecting our own definitions. : With that in mind, we can proceed to examine ways to define, compute and use : trends. 沒有「現今的趨勢」這種東西。我們說到趨勢時，只是在投射我們的定義而已。 從這個概念出發，我們才能夠真正的去檢視各種方法來定義、計算還使用趨勢。 --------------------------------------------------------- 好難翻啊 一方面又覺得它講得很玄 一方面又覺得它講得很清楚 XD -- 這個世界多美麗 --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.229.49.1