※ 引述《stasis (流雨风雪)》之铭言： : Trends : The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends. 趋势是你的朋友，只除了在结尾它反转的时候。 : == : Most traders agree they like to be long strong instruments. Traders agree : less on the definition of strong. Some definitions of strong from the web, 绝大多数的交易者都同意，他们喜欢做多强势的金融工具。 交易者对於强势的定义并不那麽一致。 从网路上找来的「强势」的定义有： : include: : having strength or power greater than average or expected. : potent: having or wielding force or authority. : impregnable: able to withstand attack. 具备的强度或力量大於平均值或期望值。 有效力：具有力量或能施加影响的力量或权威。 坚定不移：能够抵挡攻击。 : None of these definitions seem to fit stocks, bonds or futures exactly. : Trading instruments do not possess muscles or authority or even a physical : structure. So traders who use the term strength, really mean something else, : likely, trending up. 这些定义，没有一个精确的适用於股票、债券或期货。 交易工具并不是肌肉，也不是权威，更不是有形的结构。 使用「强度」这个词的交易者，其实是在讲其他的东西， 很可能，他们是在讲向上的趋势。 : The preference for the word, strength over trending, may owe to the richness : and variety of gut associations people have with strong and the rather sparse : and obscure associations they have with with trend. 人们选择的字汇，之所以选择强度而非趋势， 可能归於人们对於对於「强度」的各式各样直觉或心理因素， 以及人们对於趋势的缺乏认识。 : A trend is a general drift or tendency in a set of data. All measurements of : trend involve taking a current reading and a historical reading and comparing : them. If the current reading is higher than the historical reading, we have : an up-trend. If lower, we have a down-trend. In the improbable event of an : exact match, we have a sideways trend. 趋势是在一组资料中呈现的漂移的现象，或是某种倾向。 所有对於趋势的测定方法，必须将一个当前的数字和一个历史数字作比较。 如果当前的数字高於历史数字，那麽我们就是在上升趋势中。 如果是低於的话，它就是下降趋势。 如果那麽刚好就相等的话，它就是侧行趋势。 : The direction of the trend depends upon the method we use to perform the : comparison. Real instruments fluctuate minute-to-minute, day-to-day and : year-to-year. We have, therefore an enormous supply of historical points to : use to determine trend. As such, we can determine as many instances of trend : as we please, in any direction that we please. 趋势的方向决定於我们拿来比较的方法。 真实世界中的金融工具，每分钟，每天，每年，都在不断变动。 因此我们手上拥有非常充足的历史资料来做比对，来判定趋势的方向。 这样一来，我们高兴判定多少趋势就判定多少，高兴判定哪个方向就判定哪个方向。 : There is no such thing as the trend; there are countless trends, depending on : the method we use to determine a trend. People typically pick a method for : determining trend that fits with their current positions and/or view of the : market. 没有唯一的趋势这种东西。无数多的趋势，取决於我们判定趋势的方法。 人们通常都是选择能够和现有部位，或者现有看法吻合的方法，来判定趋势。 : == : There's No Such Thing as an Uptrend Forever : Note: In the case of a monotonically increasing series, such as the balance : of a US dollar bank account with daily compounding interest, every price is : above all its predecessors. You can make a claim, then, that no matter how : you measure it, the trend is always up. 没有永远的上升趋势这种东西。 注：在那种单一上升数列的例子中，例如每日计息的美金帐户，每个价格都比前一个高。 那麽你就能主张，无论你如何测定趋势，趋势永远是向上的。 : However, in a larger scope, in a world in which the US dollar fluctuates in : value relative to other currencies, and in which banks sometimes fail, a bank : account may not actually continue to be a long-term monotonic up-trend : investment. 然而，在大一点的时间格局中，美金和其他货币的相对价格不断变动， 银行有时也会倒，银行帐户可能就没办法成为一个长期上升趋势的投资。 : Say we compound one penny at a three percent per year interest rate from year : Zero-AD to the present. We get about $5.48 * 10^23, or around a half : trillion trillion dollars. Clearly someone in those early days has a penny : earning interest, per stories of money lenders in temples. That no such : investment survives today indicates severe financial setbacks, from time to : time, in which people and whole societies experience collapse and have to : start over. Compounding interest seems to work pretty well for a few hundred : years at a time. 假设我们以复利计算，一分钱在每年3%的利率之下，从西元初到现在。 我们得到的数字大约是$5.48 * 10^23，也就是五千兆个一万兆。 从庙宇的借贷历史来看，很显然当时有一分钱的人也可以拿得到利息。 而从现在看不到这种投资的状况来看，表示金融的逆流。 从一个时代到另一个时代，人类和整个社会都历经过崩塌，必须一次次重来。 复利这东西在几百年的时间格局中，似乎都表现得不错。 : == : All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical : price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is : no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend : might mean; we can only determine historical trends. 所有定义趋势的方法都会比较各式的历史价格点。 所有的趋势都基於历史，没有单独存活於现在的。 我们没有办法判定现今的趋势，甚至没办法定义什麽叫做「现今的趋势」， 我们能做的只是判定历史趋势。 : The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would : be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, : velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. : Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent : meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or : another view of history. 唯一能测定现今趋势(也就是完全只存在於「现在」的趋势)的方法，就是 从「现在」取出两个点，然後计算它们的差异。 运动，速率，还有趋势都不存在於「现在」。 他们不会在快照中出现。 趋势不存在於「现在」，而所谓「唯一的趋势」这东西也没有意义。 当我们说趋势，我们其实是在说历史的一个角度。 : There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are : necessarily projecting our own definitions. : With that in mind, we can proceed to examine ways to define, compute and use : trends. 没有「现今的趋势」这种东西。我们说到趋势时，只是在投射我们的定义而已。 从这个概念出发，我们才能够真正的去检视各种方法来定义、计算还使用趋势。 --------------------------------------------------------- 好难翻啊 一方面又觉得它讲得很玄 一方面又觉得它讲得很清楚 XD -- 这个世界多美丽 --

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