原文標題： Hormuz Not Fully Blocked? Analysts Investigate Frontline: Iran Establishes 'Navigation Management System' 原文連結： https://reurl.cc/npDR26 發布時間： 2026/4/6 10:41 記者署名： 原文內容： ①Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz; ②the report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Cailian Press reported on April 7 (edited by Xia Junxiong) that research firm Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz. The report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Following the war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February, Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation. Citrini Research stated that the market currently tends to describe the situation in the Strait of Hormuz using extreme terms: it is either on the verge of being blockaded or fully open and secure. To clarify the situation, Citrini Research dispatched "Analyst No. 3" (internal codename "Agent 3") to the Strait of Hormuz with a straightforward mission: observe what was actually happening. According to Citrini Research, this analyst is proficient in four languages, including Arabic, and carried a Pelican case filled with recording equipment, a pack of Cuban cigars, a box of Zyn nicotine pouches, and approximately $15,000 in cash, proceeding with an itinerary planned days earlier in Manhattan. Note: Citrini Research is headquartered in New York. On the water, conflict and trade are unfolding simultaneously. Citrini Research pointed out that although the United States maintains a military posture aimed at containing Iran's escalation of tensions, many of its allies have adopted a more discreet approach. Countries such as Japan, France, and Greece are negotiating directly or indirectly with Iran to ensure their tankers can continue sailing. This has resulted in a situation where shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not collapsed but operates in a controlled and selective manner. The report states that Iran has established a de facto navigation management system between Qeshm and Larak islands. Specifically, vessels wishing to pass through must submit detailed information via intermediaries, including ownership, cargo, and crew details, and pay transit fees. Approved vessels will receive an authorization code, and in many cases, an escort; non-compliant vessels will be required to wait. Citrini Research stated that Iran’s aim is not to close the strait but to assert sovereignty. This model mimics Turkey's long-standing management of the Bosporus Strait: regulation, fee collection, and maintaining trade flow. Iranian officials publicly announced at the end of March that Iran plans to establish a new strait management system, modeled after Turkey’s management of the Bosporus Strait and Egypt’s control of the Suez Canal. Vessels passing through the strait would be required to obtain permission from Iran and pay corresponding transit and service fees. For Iran, this brings both revenue and increased leverage while allowing the country to position itself as a 'responsible manager' of global trade rather than a 'reckless disruptor.' For most countries worldwide, this represents an uneasy but workable compromise. A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to catastrophic economic consequences, with oil inventories being depleted at a rate that the global system cannot sustain. Citrini Research pointed out that this is precisely why most energy-importing nations have chosen negotiation over confrontation. Shipping patterns have already begun to adjust, with fewer very large crude carriers and more small vessels and liquefied gas carriers. This reality holds significant implications for the market. Even without a full blockade, freight rates may remain elevated, and energy insecurity will persist. However, this chaotic yet multipolar reality is still preferable to another extreme scenario. The strait is not closed; it is being reshaped in a low-profile yet continuous manner, gradually exerting control over each vessel. Notably, Citrini Research also released a market-shaking report in February this year, which depicted a scenario where AI could severely impact the global economy, further intensifying market anxiety already gripped by fears over AI. 心得/評論： 我簡單抓取重點 並結合其他訊息後 整理如下 1.紐約知名研究機構Citrini Research的「3號分析師」，親自跑去何木茲海峽數船 2.原始資料來源是Citrini Research機構所發布的調查報告 名為《Strait of Hormuz:A Citrini Field Trip》 不過該份完整的實地考察報告屬於他們機構內部的付費訂閱內容 外部媒體目前大多是引述其公開的摘要精華 3.由於該海域的訊號干擾與欺騙嚴重 市場常用的公開 AIS和衛星圖出現了巨大的盲區 漏報了將近50%的真實通行流量 (想來是因為都是幽靈船) 4.他不顧阿曼邊境特工的勸阻與海岸警衛隊的警告 在港口用一疊現金臨時雇了一名素未謀面的船長 搭乘一艘沒有GPS導航的破舊快艇出海 5.到了距離伊朗海岸僅18英里的公海後 當時頭頂上有「見證者」無人機盤旋 遠處還有伊朗革命衛隊的巡邏艇在巡航 6.他甚至還愜意地跳入海峽中 嘴裡叼著古巴雪茄游泳 不過隨後他便被當地的海岸警衛隊攔截並短暫拘留 手機也遭到沒收 7.他與阿曼軍方簽訂了保密協議 不得拍攝、不得紀錄、不得刺探、不得撰寫報導 但他畢竟還是發了這份報告 此舉可能讓他日後有被報復的危險 8.3號分析師的結論是： a.荷姆茲海峽並不是簡單的「非開即關」 而是處於一種「動態執法」的狀態 方式比較類似於隨機抽查 伊朗方並未能夠有足夠能力完全實時攔船、檢查、收費 但伊朗革命衛隊依然在現場主導了「誰能通過」的新規矩 b.市場上的油價反應，包含布蘭特原油以及各類現貨價等 皆依靠AIS的情況去作價格推估 這嚴重失真 9.這位三號分析師 自此被封為「金融界詹姆士龐德」 華爾街的分析師這麼卷啊......也太猛...... --

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