原文标题： Hormuz Not Fully Blocked? Analysts Investigate Frontline: Iran Establishes 'Navigation Management System' 原文连结： https://reurl.cc/npDR26 发布时间： 2026/4/6 10:41 记者署名： 原文内容： ①Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz; ②the report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Cailian Press reported on April 7 (edited by Xia Junxiong) that research firm Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz. The report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Following the war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February, Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation. Citrini Research stated that the market currently tends to describe the situation in the Strait of Hormuz using extreme terms: it is either on the verge of being blockaded or fully open and secure. To clarify the situation, Citrini Research dispatched "Analyst No. 3" (internal codename "Agent 3") to the Strait of Hormuz with a straightforward mission: observe what was actually happening. According to Citrini Research, this analyst is proficient in four languages, including Arabic, and carried a Pelican case filled with recording equipment, a pack of Cuban cigars, a box of Zyn nicotine pouches, and approximately $15,000 in cash, proceeding with an itinerary planned days earlier in Manhattan. Note: Citrini Research is headquartered in New York. On the water, conflict and trade are unfolding simultaneously. Citrini Research pointed out that although the United States maintains a military posture aimed at containing Iran's escalation of tensions, many of its allies have adopted a more discreet approach. Countries such as Japan, France, and Greece are negotiating directly or indirectly with Iran to ensure their tankers can continue sailing. This has resulted in a situation where shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not collapsed but operates in a controlled and selective manner. The report states that Iran has established a de facto navigation management system between Qeshm and Larak islands. Specifically, vessels wishing to pass through must submit detailed information via intermediaries, including ownership, cargo, and crew details, and pay transit fees. Approved vessels will receive an authorization code, and in many cases, an escort; non-compliant vessels will be required to wait. Citrini Research stated that Iran’s aim is not to close the strait but to assert sovereignty. This model mimics Turkey's long-standing management of the Bosporus Strait: regulation, fee collection, and maintaining trade flow. Iranian officials publicly announced at the end of March that Iran plans to establish a new strait management system, modeled after Turkey’s management of the Bosporus Strait and Egypt’s control of the Suez Canal. Vessels passing through the strait would be required to obtain permission from Iran and pay corresponding transit and service fees. For Iran, this brings both revenue and increased leverage while allowing the country to position itself as a 'responsible manager' of global trade rather than a 'reckless disruptor.' For most countries worldwide, this represents an uneasy but workable compromise. A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to catastrophic economic consequences, with oil inventories being depleted at a rate that the global system cannot sustain. Citrini Research pointed out that this is precisely why most energy-importing nations have chosen negotiation over confrontation. Shipping patterns have already begun to adjust, with fewer very large crude carriers and more small vessels and liquefied gas carriers. This reality holds significant implications for the market. Even without a full blockade, freight rates may remain elevated, and energy insecurity will persist. However, this chaotic yet multipolar reality is still preferable to another extreme scenario. The strait is not closed; it is being reshaped in a low-profile yet continuous manner, gradually exerting control over each vessel. Notably, Citrini Research also released a market-shaking report in February this year, which depicted a scenario where AI could severely impact the global economy, further intensifying market anxiety already gripped by fears over AI. 心得/评论： 我简单抓取重点 并结合其他讯息後 整理如下 1.纽约知名研究机构Citrini Research的「3号分析师」，亲自跑去何木兹海峡数船 2.原始资料来源是Citrini Research机构所发布的调查报告 名为《Strait of Hormuz:A Citrini Field Trip》 不过该份完整的实地考察报告属於他们机构内部的付费订阅内容 外部媒体目前大多是引述其公开的摘要精华 3.由於该海域的讯号干扰与欺骗严重 市场常用的公开 AIS和卫星图出现了巨大的盲区 漏报了将近50%的真实通行流量 (想来是因为都是幽灵船) 4.他不顾阿曼边境特工的劝阻与海岸警卫队的警告 在港口用一叠现金临时雇了一名素未谋面的船长 搭乘一艘没有GPS导航的破旧快艇出海 5.到了距离伊朗海岸仅18英里的公海後 当时头顶上有「见证者」无人机盘旋 远处还有伊朗革命卫队的巡逻艇在巡航 6.他甚至还惬意地跳入海峡中 嘴里叼着古巴雪茄游泳 不过随後他便被当地的海岸警卫队拦截并短暂拘留 手机也遭到没收 7.他与阿曼军方签订了保密协议 不得拍摄、不得纪录、不得刺探、不得撰写报导 但他毕竟还是发了这份报告 此举可能让他日後有被报复的危险 8.3号分析师的结论是： a.荷姆兹海峡并不是简单的「非开即关」 而是处於一种「动态执法」的状态 方式比较类似於随机抽查 伊朗方并未能够有足够能力完全实时拦船、检查、收费 但伊朗革命卫队依然在现场主导了「谁能通过」的新规矩 b.市场上的油价反应，包含布兰特原油以及各类现货价等 皆依靠AIS的情况去作价格推估 这严重失真 9.这位三号分析师 自此被封为「金融界詹姆士庞德」 华尔街的分析师这麽卷啊......也太猛...... --

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