原文標題：You Have a Message From Taiwan 來自台灣的訊息：我們都該注意了 原文連結：https://reurl.cc/M3Wjjp 發布時間：Last Updated: May 7, 2025, 10:29 AM EDT 記者署名：Spencer Jakab, Investing Columnist 原文內容： ChatGPT 翻譯 你有想過台灣嗎？或許現在該開始關注了。 台灣人口與佛州相當，但面積只有其四分之一。對多數美國人來說，台灣的知名度可能來 自兩個方面： 美中之間的潛在軍事衝突熱點（中國視其為叛離省分）； 全球半導體產業的領導地位。 但這週引發市場關注的不是這些，而是：新台幣（TWD）匯率出現近乎「核爆式」的急升 ，對美元的升值速度之快，甚至被某些策略師形容為「超過萬億分之一機率」的異常事件 。 實際上，這樣的變動與近年來的貿易戰後遺症有關。川普政府發動貿易戰，試圖縮減赤字 ，但這些貿易夥伴（如台灣）所獲得的美元盈餘，往往又被再投資於美國資產。 台灣在這方面的規模遠超其體量，特別是其龐大的壽險產業，過去對匯率風險曝險過高。 在美元近月走弱、新台幣升值的情況下，台灣保險公司面臨重大損失。舉例來說，去年9 月購買10年期美債的台灣壽險公司，以本幣計價在本週一度浮虧達17%。 近一週來，台灣投資人似乎出現接近恐慌式的美元拋售。德意志銀行外匯研究主管 George Saravelos 警告，這對其他美元投資重鎮（如日本）是「警告訊號」。他指出， 市場信心的崩潰可能具有自我實現效應。 外國投資人過去視美國國債為極度安全的資產，幾乎不可能違約。但貿易戰讓人不得不思 考一個問題：美元的「實際價值」未來是否還能維持？ 這不僅攸關亞洲銀行或保險公司，也關乎美國一般投資人與消費者的未來。美國的利率是 全球金融的基石，也是美國長期投資與消費繁榮的後盾。 但如果某天外國投資人因擔憂美國的聯邦債務與政策不可預測，轉而撤資，那麼美國可能 會像「新興市場」般被對待，利率會上升、投資信心下降。 要避免這種情況，美聯儲（Fed）可能得採取極端措施，進一步刺激通膨，這又會導致美 元走弱。 總之，美國民眾的儲蓄與投資可能會出現「新興市場化」的風險，股票估值會大跌，生活 水平也將受衝擊。 雖然這不是預測，而是警示。但這週在地球另一端發生的金融風暴，應該提醒美國人：他 們擁有的東西，也可能會失去。 ------------- 以下為原文： What do you think of Taiwan? Do you at all? Maybe it’s time to start. With about the same population as Florida, and a fourth of its land area, the island democracy is a small and faraway place. Americans mostly know it for two things—as a possible military flashpoint between the U.S. and China, which considers it a rogue province, and as the dominant force in semiconductors. But something else entirely raised alarms this week. The Taiwanese dollar had a seemingly nuclear melt-up, rising so quickly and unexpectedly against the U.S. dollar that some strategists described it as a more than one-in-a-trillion event. Maybe. But it isn’t hard to trace this and many other recent, unusual moves to the trade war. The flip side of the deficits President Trump seeks to erase is that trading partners have recycled much of their earnings in dollars into U.S. investments. Taiwan punches way above its weight in that respect, and its huge insurers mostly left themselves exposed to currency moves. With the greenback weakening in recent months, and the Taiwanese currency then surging, that has hurt. A Taiwanese life insurer that bought a boring 10-year Treasury note in September had lost as much as 17% on paper in its own currency at one point this week. In the past week or so, something close to panic selling of dollars apparently set in among Taiwan-based investors. Other holders of U.S. investments, such as in Japan, will view it as a “warning shot,” according to George Saravelos, who runs foreign-exchange research at Deutsche Bank. He warns of “self-fulfilling moves.” U.S. Treasury debt, in particular, is thought to be so safe that default isn’t even seen as a one-in-100 trillion possibility by foreign investors. America borrows in dollars and has a printing press, after all. But the trade war naturally focuses attention on the elephant in the room—what the real value of those dollars will be in the future. That matters as much to ordinary American investors and consumers as it does to an Asian bank or insurer. U.S. interest rates are the bedrock of every investment on the planet and have underpinned a mostly golden era for American investors and consumers. Would it be possible to keep interest rates on things like car loans and mortgages reasonable if foreigners decided one day that unsustainable federal debt and unpredictable policies made the U.S. a risky place to invest—sort of like an emerging market? Yes, but it might require forceful steps from the Fed that stoke inflation, weakening the dollar even more. Regardless, Americans’ savings could take on a decidedly emerging-market flavor, too. This would likely lead to a big drop in stock valuations and the sort of lifestyle they would finance. That’s a nightmare scenario, not a prediction. But the horror show that unfolded in markets halfway around the world this week should remind Americans what they have to lose. 心得/評論： 台灣近期新台幣對美元的劇烈升值，凸顯全球資金對美國經濟與財政政策的不安。一旦外 國投資者對美元失去信心，美國利率、投資環境與民眾生活可能步向「新興市場化」的惡 性循環，後果不容忽視。 --

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