原文标题：You Have a Message From Taiwan 来自台湾的讯息：我们都该注意了 原文连结：https://reurl.cc/M3Wjjp 发布时间：Last Updated: May 7, 2025, 10:29 AM EDT 记者署名：Spencer Jakab, Investing Columnist 原文内容： ChatGPT 翻译 你有想过台湾吗？或许现在该开始关注了。 台湾人口与佛州相当，但面积只有其四分之一。对多数美国人来说，台湾的知名度可能来 自两个方面： 美中之间的潜在军事冲突热点（中国视其为叛离省分）； 全球半导体产业的领导地位。 但这周引发市场关注的不是这些，而是：新台币（TWD）汇率出现近乎「核爆式」的急升 ，对美元的升值速度之快，甚至被某些策略师形容为「超过万亿分之一机率」的异常事件 。 实际上，这样的变动与近年来的贸易战後遗症有关。川普政府发动贸易战，试图缩减赤字 ，但这些贸易夥伴（如台湾）所获得的美元盈余，往往又被再投资於美国资产。 台湾在这方面的规模远超其体量，特别是其庞大的寿险产业，过去对汇率风险曝险过高。 在美元近月走弱、新台币升值的情况下，台湾保险公司面临重大损失。举例来说，去年9 月购买10年期美债的台湾寿险公司，以本币计价在本周一度浮亏达17%。 近一周来，台湾投资人似乎出现接近恐慌式的美元抛售。德意志银行外汇研究主管 George Saravelos 警告，这对其他美元投资重镇（如日本）是「警告讯号」。他指出， 市场信心的崩溃可能具有自我实现效应。 外国投资人过去视美国国债为极度安全的资产，几乎不可能违约。但贸易战让人不得不思 考一个问题：美元的「实际价值」未来是否还能维持？ 这不仅攸关亚洲银行或保险公司，也关乎美国一般投资人与消费者的未来。美国的利率是 全球金融的基石，也是美国长期投资与消费繁荣的後盾。 但如果某天外国投资人因担忧美国的联邦债务与政策不可预测，转而撤资，那麽美国可能 会像「新兴市场」般被对待，利率会上升、投资信心下降。 要避免这种情况，美联储（Fed）可能得采取极端措施，进一步刺激通膨，这又会导致美 元走弱。 总之，美国民众的储蓄与投资可能会出现「新兴市场化」的风险，股票估值会大跌，生活 水平也将受冲击。 虽然这不是预测，而是警示。但这周在地球另一端发生的金融风暴，应该提醒美国人：他 们拥有的东西，也可能会失去。 ------------- 以下为原文： What do you think of Taiwan? Do you at all? Maybe it’s time to start. With about the same population as Florida, and a fourth of its land area, the island democracy is a small and faraway place. Americans mostly know it for two things—as a possible military flashpoint between the U.S. and China, which considers it a rogue province, and as the dominant force in semiconductors. But something else entirely raised alarms this week. The Taiwanese dollar had a seemingly nuclear melt-up, rising so quickly and unexpectedly against the U.S. dollar that some strategists described it as a more than one-in-a-trillion event. Maybe. But it isn’t hard to trace this and many other recent, unusual moves to the trade war. The flip side of the deficits President Trump seeks to erase is that trading partners have recycled much of their earnings in dollars into U.S. investments. Taiwan punches way above its weight in that respect, and its huge insurers mostly left themselves exposed to currency moves. With the greenback weakening in recent months, and the Taiwanese currency then surging, that has hurt. A Taiwanese life insurer that bought a boring 10-year Treasury note in September had lost as much as 17% on paper in its own currency at one point this week. In the past week or so, something close to panic selling of dollars apparently set in among Taiwan-based investors. Other holders of U.S. investments, such as in Japan, will view it as a “warning shot,” according to George Saravelos, who runs foreign-exchange research at Deutsche Bank. He warns of “self-fulfilling moves.” U.S. Treasury debt, in particular, is thought to be so safe that default isn’t even seen as a one-in-100 trillion possibility by foreign investors. America borrows in dollars and has a printing press, after all. But the trade war naturally focuses attention on the elephant in the room—what the real value of those dollars will be in the future. That matters as much to ordinary American investors and consumers as it does to an Asian bank or insurer. U.S. interest rates are the bedrock of every investment on the planet and have underpinned a mostly golden era for American investors and consumers. Would it be possible to keep interest rates on things like car loans and mortgages reasonable if foreigners decided one day that unsustainable federal debt and unpredictable policies made the U.S. a risky place to invest—sort of like an emerging market? Yes, but it might require forceful steps from the Fed that stoke inflation, weakening the dollar even more. Regardless, Americans’ savings could take on a decidedly emerging-market flavor, too. This would likely lead to a big drop in stock valuations and the sort of lifestyle they would finance. That’s a nightmare scenario, not a prediction. But the horror show that unfolded in markets halfway around the world this week should remind Americans what they have to lose. 心得/评论： 台湾近期新台币对美元的剧烈升值，凸显全球资金对美国经济与财政政策的不安。一旦外 国投资者对美元失去信心，美国利率、投资环境与民众生活可能步向「新兴市场化」的恶 性循环，後果不容忽视。 --

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