標題：ASSEMBLING SPURS’ IDEAL PLAYOFF ROTATION 作者：Jared Johnson 出處：Projectspurs --- The Spurs’ playoff seeding is still up in the air with two nights of play remaining in the NBA regular season. 馬刺的季後賽順位還沒完全確定，因為NBA常規賽還有2個晚上的play才會結束。 According to CBS Sports’ Matt Moore, there are 16 different possibilities for how the West’s Nos. 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds turn out. San Antonio gets the second seed in 10 of the scenarios but still has a chance to finish at each of the other three spots. 根據CBS Sports' Matt Moore表示，西區的2,3,5,6種子目前有16種不同的可能。馬刺在 10種情況中可以拿到第2種子，當然也有可能最後結束在其他3個順位。 16種順位可能請點： https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/587857185079607299/photo/1 All that to say, the Spurs will have no idea who their playoff opponent is until after Wednesday night’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans. Should they win, they’ll get the No. 2 seed and play the No. 7-seeded Dallas Mavericks in a first-round matchup. 馬刺在結束禮拜三晚上跟鵜鶘的比賽前都不會知道季後賽第一輪會對上誰。如果贏了， 馬刺第一輪會拿到第2種子並對上第7種子的小牛。 Whoever the Spurs’ playoff opponents are, it’ll be up to head coach Gregg Popovich to create a postseason rotation that yields positive results. He’ll have to take into account matchups, how well a given player is playing and the fact that teams usually shorten their rotation in the playoffs to keep their best guys on the court as much as possible. 不管對手是誰，Popovich都會排出一個可以贏球的季後賽輪值。他會考慮到誰是對手，也 會思考他的選手有誰狀況是好的。因為事實上每隊都會減少上場的人數並讓最好的選手 有更多的場上時間。 So let’s look at how that rotation might shake out, shall we? We’ll look at each position and distribute the minutes at said position. Players will be classified under the position at which Basketball-Reference has them playing the majority of their moments, with one small liberty (you’ll see later on). 我們就來看看馬刺的季後賽輪值可能會是怎麼構成的吧。我們會看看每個位置跟那些位置 的時間分佈。選手會以Basketball-Reference的上場數據及位置而被分類，當然也會有 一些彈性啦。 Point Guard Tony Parker is San Antonio’s starting point guard and will continue to hold down that position as long as he is healthy, no matter the matchup. There was some talk that Parker was “back” as a superstar point guard in March after some spectacular games, but let’s be honest—Tony’s not that guy anymore, and probably won’t be that guy for the rest of his career. Tony Parker當然還是馬刺的頭號控衛，只要他是健康的他就會一直是先發，不管對手是 誰。有些討論表示Parker已經找回到了他之前的超級明星身手，在3月的時候他打了一些 精彩的比賽，但是說真的 - Tony已經不是之前的那個他了，而他之後的生涯也可能找不 回之前的超級身手。 Interestingly enough, the Frenchman’s numbers in the Spurs’ current 11-game winning streak have been very subdued: 11.5 points, 4.8 assists and 1.3 turnovers in 25.7 minutes per game on 50.0 percent shooting. But he still runs the Spurs’ motion offense nearly to perfection, with his dribbling and passing ability acting as the catalyst for the team’s scoring abilities. 有趣的是，這位法國人的數據在馬刺的11連勝中是非常被壓縮的：11.52得分, 4.8助攻跟 1.3失誤，在平均每場25.7分鐘的上場時間有著50.0的投籃率。但是他還是接近完美的 策劃著馬刺的進攻端，他的運球及傳球能力就像是隊伍的得分催化劑一樣。 Patty Mills and Cory Joseph are the two backup floor generals. Their respective amounts of playing time in the playoffs will depend on two key factors: whether Mills’ three-point stroke returns and who the Spurs are playing. Mills, when on his game, is an offensive killer. Check out last February’s game against the Charlotte Bobcats. Mills跟Joseph是2個主要替補。他們季後賽上場的時間將取決於2個重點：Mills的三分球 是否能夠發揮以及馬刺的對手是誰。Mills如果狀況好將會是一位進攻端殺手。來看看去年 2月對上山貓的比賽。 Patty Mills 32 points 4 Threes vs Bobcats 08.02.2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKwe91hctkA He thrives on taking advantage of second-unit point guards who get lazy, like Ramon Sessions in the video above. His tight on-ball pressure makes up for his diminutive 6’0 stature, making him a passable defender. Right now, he’s only at 33.7 percent shooting from the three-point line this season, but that success rate could blow up at a moment’s notice. If his shot is even somewhat “on,” he’ll take most of the second-unit minutes at point guard. 他會想辦法在對手的替補後衛變得怠惰時拓展自己的有利條件，就像對上影片中的Ramon Sessions一樣。他能持續的給對方壓力借此彌補他在身材上的弱勢，讓他成為一個還可以 的防守員。不過現在他在今季的三分進球率只有33.7%，雖然這個隨時都有可能提高。只要 他的投籃狀況還算是可行的，那他就會拿到大部分的替補控衛時間。 Joseph, on the other hand, is lanky, athletic and more defensive-minded. However, he’s mastered his mid-range jumper this year (44.6 percent between 10 feet and the three-point line). Against teams with dangerous offensive point guards (the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers or Portland Trail Blazers, to name a few), Joseph could see some time in Parker’s place with the starting lineup, in addition to his burn with the backups. 另外一方面，Joseph有著較長的身形跟較好的防守能力。雖然如此，他今年也有出色的中 距離(在10尺與三分線之間的出手有44.6%)。如果對上攻擊能力比較好的後衛(像是勇士， 快艇跟拓荒者)，Joseph可能會取代Parker拿到一些先發控衛的時間，當然還有以替補的 身份。 Against teams with less offensive talent at the 1 spot (like the Houston Rockets or Dallas Mavericks), Parker can hold his own and steal back some of those minutes that would have gone to Joseph. We also could see some of Parker/Joseph and Mills/Joseph on the court together, with Joseph’s length and defensive capabilities. Proposed minutes breakdown: Parker 29, Mills 14, Joseph 10 如果是對上先發控衛較弱的隊伍(像是火箭或者是小牛)，Parker應該可以保住他的位子 並拿回更多的上場時間。我們可能也會看到Parker/Joseph或Mills/Joseph一起在場上，畢 竟Joseph的防守能力是好的。 作者提出的時間分佈：Parker 29, Mills 14, Joseph 10 Shooting Guard After receiving only 23.0 minutes per game in the playoffs last season, Danny Green is in for a major bump in playing time this time around. He’s set career highs in points (11.8), rebounds (4.3), assists (2.0), steals (1.3) and blocks (1.1) per game, all while setting the franchise record for three-pointers made in a season (191). With Green’s exceptional defensive instincts, he’s also a weapon to use against explosive offensive backcourts. 雖然Green去年的季後賽只有拿到平均23.0分鐘的上場時間，今年他一定可以得到更多的 機會。他繳出了生涯最高的場均得分(11.8)，籃板(4.3)，助攻(2.0)，抄截(1.3)以及火 鍋(1.1)，也破了隊史的單季最多三分球的記錄(191)。他極好的防守意識將會是對上火力 強大的後衛時的武器之一。 Manu Ginobili is no longer close to the player he once was, but what 37-year-old is? He’s still the de facto point guard of San Antonio’s second unit, using crafty drives and passes to make defenders look silly. I don’t know if you missed this classic Manu pass from December, but if you did, now is the time to bask in its awesomeness. Ginobili當然已經不是當年的他了，但是事實上37歲的他依舊是馬刺第二隊的控衛，運用 他巧妙的切入以及傳球讓防守一方看起來很滑稽。我不知道你是不是忘記了MANU這記經典 的傳球，如果你忘了那現在就是個回顧它的好時機。 Manu Ginobili's Magical Pass Behind His Head to Green https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxbcy5uRc2k Marco Belinelli sees time at the 2 as well. He’ll get some garbage time minutes, plus short stretches in important moments when Green or Ginobili needs a breather. Proposed minutes breakdown: Green 31, Ginobili 23, Belinelli 12 Belinelli當然也會上場。他會拿到一些垃圾時間，或者是重要時刻但是Green跟Ginobili 都需要一些喘息空間的時候。 作者提出的時間分佈：Green 31, Ginobili 23, Belinelli 12 Small Forward This position officially belongs to Kawhi “The Claw” Leonard. Forgive me as I gush, but Leonard has officially secured a spot as one of the 10 best players in the league. If he hadn’t have dealt with his eye and hand issues, who knows, he may have been in the conversation for MVP. As Coach Pop decides on postseason playing time for the 23-year-old two-way stud, he’ll have to think along the lines of what he gave prime Tim Duncan: lots and lots of minutes. 小前鋒的位置現在已經正式的交給了Kawhi"巨爪"Leonard。他已經可以說是成為了全聯盟 最好的10位球員之一了。如果他沒有受到眼睛跟手的傷勢，說不定，他也會是今年MVP的 大熱門之一。在Popovich決定要給這位23歲好手多少上場時間的同時，他可能會想到之前 給了我們偉大的Duncan多少：很多很多的時間。 Here is a breakdown of Timmy’s minutes per game from his first six playoff runs: 以下是Duncan前6個季後賽的上場時間： 場均(mins) 1997-98 41.6 1998-99 43.1 2000-01 40.5 2001-02 42.2 2002-03 42.5 2003-04 40.5 Now, I’m not suggesting Pop goes quite that crazy with Kawhi this year, especially with the NBA’s expanded rotations and increased awareness of preserving players’ bodies. But The Claw needs to be on the court for almost all of the game for the Spurs to do what they want to do offensively and defensively. 當然我不會覺得Pop會那麼瘋狂的讓Kawhi在場上待那麼久，尤其是現在NBA的擴大輪值以 及控管球員身體健康的這種意識。但是"巨爪"基本上會需要以接近打完整場的方式打完所 有比賽，如果馬刺需要做出他們想要的進攻或者是防守的話。 Need I say more? 還要我講嗎？ Kawhi Leonard Full Highlights vs Warriors (2015.04.05) - 26 Pts, 7 Steals, Defense Included! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bma1zD8X3dw Reggie Williams and Kyle Anderson are the two backups who play mostly at small forward, and neither will play in every game. When they do, however, it will be just scraps of time in the fourth quarter. Green and Ginobili will play spot minutes at the 3, as well. Proposed minutes breakdown: Leonard 37, Williams 1, Anderson 1 Williams跟Anderson是兩位大部分時間都打小前鋒的替補，而他們兩個都不會在每場比賽 中出賽。如果他們上場，那應該就只是第4節中的一點時間而已。Green跟Ginobili也會 分擔一點點時間。 作者提出的時間分佈：Leonard 37, Williams 1, Anderson 1 Power Forward Is Duncan still a power forward? Or is he a center? According to Basketball-Reference, The Big Fundamental has played more minutes at center than at power forward in each of the past nine seasons, which pretty much spits in the face of all of our arguments that he’s the best power forward of all time. This year, he’s getting significant minutes at both positions, but we’ll call him a power forward here for the sake of everyone’s sanity. Duncan還是一位大前鋒嗎？還是他是中鋒呢？根據Basketball-Reference，石佛在過去 9個球季，每季打中鋒的時間都是比大前鋒還多的，這也打了說他是史上最偉大大前鋒的那 些人的臉。今年他其實依舊在兩個位置都有一定程度的時間，不過為了不讓大家崩愧，我 們就先當他是大前鋒吧。 Indeed, Duncan does play the 4 when the Spurs use their traditional starting lineup of Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Tiago Splitter. That is the team’s best five-man group, statistically, and it outscores opponents by an astronomical 21.6 points per 100 possessions. However, against small-ball teams like the Warriors, who start stretch 4 Draymond Green at power forward, the versatile Boris Diaw could get the starting nod. He’s simply better suited to guard Green and keep up with the Dubs’ uptempo attack. 沒錯Duncan確實是打大前鋒，如果馬刺採用他們傳統的先發陣容(Parker/Green/Leonard/ Duncan/Splitter)的話。以數據上來說，這基本上是隊上最好的5人組，而這個組合也 得到了比對手更多的分數，每100個球權能比對手多得到驚人的21.6分。雖然如此，如果對 上了像是勇士隊的“小球”戰略 - 把Draymond Green擺在大前鋒的位置，那多功能的 Boris Diaw就有機會上場先發。他只是比較適合防守Green借此跟上對手的進攻節奏。 Boris Diaw Offense Highlights March https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVaDCz1hqL4 If Splitter is starting, Diaw will still get a lot of minutes with the second unit, and hopefully thrive there. Matt Bonner is pretty much useless outside of his three-point shooting, so he’ll only get a few minutes here and there. Jeff Ayres is not important to the Spurs’ success and will get even less playing time. Proposed minutes breakdown: Duncan 32, Diaw 24, Bonner 6, Ayres 1 如果Splitter是先發的話那Diaw可能就會在第二隊得到更多的機會，也希望他能有好表 現。Bonner如果沒有三分能力那可以說是沒什麼用，所以他可能只會得到一點時間。 Ayers對馬刺的成功而言不是很重要，所以他會得到比Bonner更少的時間。 作者提出的時間分佈：Duncan 32, Diaw 24, Bonner 6, Ayres 1 Center Splitter and Aron Baynes will jockey for minutes at center in the postseason. At this point last year, that wouldn’t have been a contest. Splitter was clearly better than Baynes, who was merely a big body with limited skills. But The Big Banger has made a huge leap this year, the type of improvement that led me to make this arguable statement in February, when Splitter was struggling. Splitter跟Baynes會互相競爭季後賽中鋒的位置。同個時間的去年，這個位置不會是有 鬥爭的，Splitter很明顯的強過只有身材沒有技巧的Baynes。但是Baynes今年有著非常大 的進步，他進步的程度也讓我在2月的時候有了以下的評論，那時Splitter打得很掙扎。 作者對Baynes的評論 https://twitter.com/jaredtjohnson21/status/569105139547680768 Tiago’s play has recovered since (although a calf injury has him sidelined currently), but Baynes is still right there with him. Tiago的表現也回復了(雖然他小腿的傷目前讓他無法上場)，但是Baynes的表現也跟他平起 平坐。 Aron Baynes 18 Points Full Highlights (4/3/2015) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuPIZhS1Pro Although Splitter is a better defender and has a more developed basketball IQ, Baynes has a better mid-range jump shot and finishes with more power inside. If Splitter can come back healthy for the playoffs, this can be a lethal interior duo for the Spurs to throw at opponents. Both of these guys will see their playing time increase against teams with more traditional big me, like the Memphis Grizzlies and the Clippers, but decrease against small-ball teams like the Warriors. In the latter situation, Duncan will take a lot of the minutes here. Proposed minutes breakdown: Splitter 23, Baynes 16 雖然Splitter是一個比較好的防守者而他的籃球智商也比較完整，Baynes擁有比較好的 中距離跟更好的籃下表現。如果Splitter可以健康的回到季後賽，那他們兩個的搭配對 馬刺的對手來說是非常致命的。他們兩個人都可以看到自己在對上強力內線隊伍時能有 更多的上場時間(灰熊跟快艇)，而在對上小球隊伍時上場時間相對會減少(勇士)。如果是 後面的情況，那Duncan會出來並得到更多的時間。 作者提出的時間分佈：Splitter 23, Baynes 16 Conclusion The Spurs should feel great about the group they have heading into the playoffs. This is especially true if all healthy players stay that way and Splitter gets to 100 percent early on in the postseason. Below is a table outlining the Spurs’ minutes breakdown in the playoffs. Minutes will obviously fluctuate based on opponent and players’ hot and cold streaks. However, the projection is based on the average amount of playing time I see each player getting throughout a deep playoff run (which, let’s be real, is pretty darn likely.) 馬刺應該對他們即將進入季後賽的隊伍輪值感到良好。尤其是如果那些健康的球員都保持 健康，然後Splitter要儘快回到最佳的狀況。以下是馬刺各個位置的季後賽時間分佈，當 然時間會依照對手以及選手的狀況而有所變動。雖然如此，這個預測是依照我看到每個選 手在季後賽時得到的平均出賽時間(而我覺得很有可能發生)。 Also, keep in mind that the total minutes per game will be above 240 because not every player sees action in every contest. There are also imbalances in the minutes at various positions, because certain players see time at multiple positions. Note: All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/stats and accurate as of April 14 unless otherwise indicated. 還有，請注意所有的場均時間加起來會超過240，因為不是每個選手在每場都會出賽。每 個位置的時間也有可能不平衡，因為特定選手會有多個位置的出賽。 注意：所以的數字統計都是依照Basketball-Reference跟NBA.com/stats，然後到4月14號 都是準確的，除非有另外著名。 -----上場時間總結(分鐘)----- 控球後衛 T. Parker (29) P. Mills (13) C. Joseph (11) 得分後衛 D. Green (31) M. Ginobili (23) M. Belinelli (12) 小前鋒 K. Leonard (37) R. Williams (1) K. Anderson (1) 大前鋒 T. Duncan (32) B. Diaw (24) M. Bonner (6) J. Ayers (1) 中鋒 T. Splitter (23) A. Baynes (16) ---------------------------- --- 季後賽要到了 剛好看到一篇輪值分析文 想說可以翻一下 促進版友討論XDD 究竟波波的調度是不是那麼好預測呢？ 作者本身感覺還蠻有自信的說 最後其實有些地方感覺還是翻的不好 如果錯誤請見諒。 --- --

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