标题：ASSEMBLING SPURS’ IDEAL PLAYOFF ROTATION 作者：Jared Johnson 出处：Projectspurs --- The Spurs’ playoff seeding is still up in the air with two nights of play remaining in the NBA regular season. 马刺的季後赛顺位还没完全确定，因为NBA常规赛还有2个晚上的play才会结束。 According to CBS Sports’ Matt Moore, there are 16 different possibilities for how the West’s Nos. 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds turn out. San Antonio gets the second seed in 10 of the scenarios but still has a chance to finish at each of the other three spots. 根据CBS Sports' Matt Moore表示，西区的2,3,5,6种子目前有16种不同的可能。马刺在 10种情况中可以拿到第2种子，当然也有可能最後结束在其他3个顺位。 16种顺位可能请点： https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/587857185079607299/photo/1 All that to say, the Spurs will have no idea who their playoff opponent is until after Wednesday night’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans. Should they win, they’ll get the No. 2 seed and play the No. 7-seeded Dallas Mavericks in a first-round matchup. 马刺在结束礼拜三晚上跟鹈鹕的比赛前都不会知道季後赛第一轮会对上谁。如果赢了， 马刺第一轮会拿到第2种子并对上第7种子的小牛。 Whoever the Spurs’ playoff opponents are, it’ll be up to head coach Gregg Popovich to create a postseason rotation that yields positive results. He’ll have to take into account matchups, how well a given player is playing and the fact that teams usually shorten their rotation in the playoffs to keep their best guys on the court as much as possible. 不管对手是谁，Popovich都会排出一个可以赢球的季後赛轮值。他会考虑到谁是对手，也 会思考他的选手有谁状况是好的。因为事实上每队都会减少上场的人数并让最好的选手 有更多的场上时间。 So let’s look at how that rotation might shake out, shall we? We’ll look at each position and distribute the minutes at said position. Players will be classified under the position at which Basketball-Reference has them playing the majority of their moments, with one small liberty (you’ll see later on). 我们就来看看马刺的季後赛轮值可能会是怎麽构成的吧。我们会看看每个位置跟那些位置 的时间分布。选手会以Basketball-Reference的上场数据及位置而被分类，当然也会有 一些弹性啦。 Point Guard Tony Parker is San Antonio’s starting point guard and will continue to hold down that position as long as he is healthy, no matter the matchup. There was some talk that Parker was “back” as a superstar point guard in March after some spectacular games, but let’s be honest—Tony’s not that guy anymore, and probably won’t be that guy for the rest of his career. Tony Parker当然还是马刺的头号控卫，只要他是健康的他就会一直是先发，不管对手是 谁。有些讨论表示Parker已经找回到了他之前的超级明星身手，在3月的时候他打了一些 精彩的比赛，但是说真的 - Tony已经不是之前的那个他了，而他之後的生涯也可能找不 回之前的超级身手。 Interestingly enough, the Frenchman’s numbers in the Spurs’ current 11-game winning streak have been very subdued: 11.5 points, 4.8 assists and 1.3 turnovers in 25.7 minutes per game on 50.0 percent shooting. But he still runs the Spurs’ motion offense nearly to perfection, with his dribbling and passing ability acting as the catalyst for the team’s scoring abilities. 有趣的是，这位法国人的数据在马刺的11连胜中是非常被压缩的：11.52得分, 4.8助攻跟 1.3失误，在平均每场25.7分钟的上场时间有着50.0的投篮率。但是他还是接近完美的 策划着马刺的进攻端，他的运球及传球能力就像是队伍的得分催化剂一样。 Patty Mills and Cory Joseph are the two backup floor generals. Their respective amounts of playing time in the playoffs will depend on two key factors: whether Mills’ three-point stroke returns and who the Spurs are playing. Mills, when on his game, is an offensive killer. Check out last February’s game against the Charlotte Bobcats. Mills跟Joseph是2个主要替补。他们季後赛上场的时间将取决於2个重点：Mills的三分球 是否能够发挥以及马刺的对手是谁。Mills如果状况好将会是一位进攻端杀手。来看看去年 2月对上山猫的比赛。 Patty Mills 32 points 4 Threes vs Bobcats 08.02.2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKwe91hctkA He thrives on taking advantage of second-unit point guards who get lazy, like Ramon Sessions in the video above. His tight on-ball pressure makes up for his diminutive 6’0 stature, making him a passable defender. Right now, he’s only at 33.7 percent shooting from the three-point line this season, but that success rate could blow up at a moment’s notice. If his shot is even somewhat “on,” he’ll take most of the second-unit minutes at point guard. 他会想办法在对手的替补後卫变得怠惰时拓展自己的有利条件，就像对上影片中的Ramon Sessions一样。他能持续的给对方压力借此弥补他在身材上的弱势，让他成为一个还可以 的防守员。不过现在他在今季的三分进球率只有33.7%，虽然这个随时都有可能提高。只要 他的投篮状况还算是可行的，那他就会拿到大部分的替补控卫时间。 Joseph, on the other hand, is lanky, athletic and more defensive-minded. However, he’s mastered his mid-range jumper this year (44.6 percent between 10 feet and the three-point line). Against teams with dangerous offensive point guards (the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers or Portland Trail Blazers, to name a few), Joseph could see some time in Parker’s place with the starting lineup, in addition to his burn with the backups. 另外一方面，Joseph有着较长的身形跟较好的防守能力。虽然如此，他今年也有出色的中 距离(在10尺与三分线之间的出手有44.6%)。如果对上攻击能力比较好的後卫(像是勇士， 快艇跟拓荒者)，Joseph可能会取代Parker拿到一些先发控卫的时间，当然还有以替补的 身份。 Against teams with less offensive talent at the 1 spot (like the Houston Rockets or Dallas Mavericks), Parker can hold his own and steal back some of those minutes that would have gone to Joseph. We also could see some of Parker/Joseph and Mills/Joseph on the court together, with Joseph’s length and defensive capabilities. Proposed minutes breakdown: Parker 29, Mills 14, Joseph 10 如果是对上先发控卫较弱的队伍(像是火箭或者是小牛)，Parker应该可以保住他的位子 并拿回更多的上场时间。我们可能也会看到Parker/Joseph或Mills/Joseph一起在场上，毕 竟Joseph的防守能力是好的。 作者提出的时间分布：Parker 29, Mills 14, Joseph 10 Shooting Guard After receiving only 23.0 minutes per game in the playoffs last season, Danny Green is in for a major bump in playing time this time around. He’s set career highs in points (11.8), rebounds (4.3), assists (2.0), steals (1.3) and blocks (1.1) per game, all while setting the franchise record for three-pointers made in a season (191). With Green’s exceptional defensive instincts, he’s also a weapon to use against explosive offensive backcourts. 虽然Green去年的季後赛只有拿到平均23.0分钟的上场时间，今年他一定可以得到更多的 机会。他缴出了生涯最高的场均得分(11.8)，篮板(4.3)，助攻(2.0)，抄截(1.3)以及火 锅(1.1)，也破了队史的单季最多三分球的记录(191)。他极好的防守意识将会是对上火力 强大的後卫时的武器之一。 Manu Ginobili is no longer close to the player he once was, but what 37-year-old is? He’s still the de facto point guard of San Antonio’s second unit, using crafty drives and passes to make defenders look silly. I don’t know if you missed this classic Manu pass from December, but if you did, now is the time to bask in its awesomeness. Ginobili当然已经不是当年的他了，但是事实上37岁的他依旧是马刺第二队的控卫，运用 他巧妙的切入以及传球让防守一方看起来很滑稽。我不知道你是不是忘记了MANU这记经典 的传球，如果你忘了那现在就是个回顾它的好时机。 Manu Ginobili's Magical Pass Behind His Head to Green https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxbcy5uRc2k Marco Belinelli sees time at the 2 as well. He’ll get some garbage time minutes, plus short stretches in important moments when Green or Ginobili needs a breather. Proposed minutes breakdown: Green 31, Ginobili 23, Belinelli 12 Belinelli当然也会上场。他会拿到一些垃圾时间，或者是重要时刻但是Green跟Ginobili 都需要一些喘息空间的时候。 作者提出的时间分布：Green 31, Ginobili 23, Belinelli 12 Small Forward This position officially belongs to Kawhi “The Claw” Leonard. Forgive me as I gush, but Leonard has officially secured a spot as one of the 10 best players in the league. If he hadn’t have dealt with his eye and hand issues, who knows, he may have been in the conversation for MVP. As Coach Pop decides on postseason playing time for the 23-year-old two-way stud, he’ll have to think along the lines of what he gave prime Tim Duncan: lots and lots of minutes. 小前锋的位置现在已经正式的交给了Kawhi"巨爪"Leonard。他已经可以说是成为了全联盟 最好的10位球员之一了。如果他没有受到眼睛跟手的伤势，说不定，他也会是今年MVP的 大热门之一。在Popovich决定要给这位23岁好手多少上场时间的同时，他可能会想到之前 给了我们伟大的Duncan多少：很多很多的时间。 Here is a breakdown of Timmy’s minutes per game from his first six playoff runs: 以下是Duncan前6个季後赛的上场时间： 场均(mins) 1997-98 41.6 1998-99 43.1 2000-01 40.5 2001-02 42.2 2002-03 42.5 2003-04 40.5 Now, I’m not suggesting Pop goes quite that crazy with Kawhi this year, especially with the NBA’s expanded rotations and increased awareness of preserving players’ bodies. But The Claw needs to be on the court for almost all of the game for the Spurs to do what they want to do offensively and defensively. 当然我不会觉得Pop会那麽疯狂的让Kawhi在场上待那麽久，尤其是现在NBA的扩大轮值以 及控管球员身体健康的这种意识。但是"巨爪"基本上会需要以接近打完整场的方式打完所 有比赛，如果马刺需要做出他们想要的进攻或者是防守的话。 Need I say more? 还要我讲吗？ Kawhi Leonard Full Highlights vs Warriors (2015.04.05) - 26 Pts, 7 Steals, Defense Included! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bma1zD8X3dw Reggie Williams and Kyle Anderson are the two backups who play mostly at small forward, and neither will play in every game. When they do, however, it will be just scraps of time in the fourth quarter. Green and Ginobili will play spot minutes at the 3, as well. Proposed minutes breakdown: Leonard 37, Williams 1, Anderson 1 Williams跟Anderson是两位大部分时间都打小前锋的替补，而他们两个都不会在每场比赛 中出赛。如果他们上场，那应该就只是第4节中的一点时间而已。Green跟Ginobili也会 分担一点点时间。 作者提出的时间分布：Leonard 37, Williams 1, Anderson 1 Power Forward Is Duncan still a power forward? Or is he a center? According to Basketball-Reference, The Big Fundamental has played more minutes at center than at power forward in each of the past nine seasons, which pretty much spits in the face of all of our arguments that he’s the best power forward of all time. This year, he’s getting significant minutes at both positions, but we’ll call him a power forward here for the sake of everyone’s sanity. Duncan还是一位大前锋吗？还是他是中锋呢？根据Basketball-Reference，石佛在过去 9个球季，每季打中锋的时间都是比大前锋还多的，这也打了说他是史上最伟大大前锋的那 些人的脸。今年他其实依旧在两个位置都有一定程度的时间，不过为了不让大家崩愧，我 们就先当他是大前锋吧。 Indeed, Duncan does play the 4 when the Spurs use their traditional starting lineup of Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Tiago Splitter. That is the team’s best five-man group, statistically, and it outscores opponents by an astronomical 21.6 points per 100 possessions. However, against small-ball teams like the Warriors, who start stretch 4 Draymond Green at power forward, the versatile Boris Diaw could get the starting nod. He’s simply better suited to guard Green and keep up with the Dubs’ uptempo attack. 没错Duncan确实是打大前锋，如果马刺采用他们传统的先发阵容(Parker/Green/Leonard/ Duncan/Splitter)的话。以数据上来说，这基本上是队上最好的5人组，而这个组合也 得到了比对手更多的分数，每100个球权能比对手多得到惊人的21.6分。虽然如此，如果对 上了像是勇士队的“小球”战略 - 把Draymond Green摆在大前锋的位置，那多功能的 Boris Diaw就有机会上场先发。他只是比较适合防守Green借此跟上对手的进攻节奏。 Boris Diaw Offense Highlights March https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVaDCz1hqL4 If Splitter is starting, Diaw will still get a lot of minutes with the second unit, and hopefully thrive there. Matt Bonner is pretty much useless outside of his three-point shooting, so he’ll only get a few minutes here and there. Jeff Ayres is not important to the Spurs’ success and will get even less playing time. Proposed minutes breakdown: Duncan 32, Diaw 24, Bonner 6, Ayres 1 如果Splitter是先发的话那Diaw可能就会在第二队得到更多的机会，也希望他能有好表 现。Bonner如果没有三分能力那可以说是没什麽用，所以他可能只会得到一点时间。 Ayers对马刺的成功而言不是很重要，所以他会得到比Bonner更少的时间。 作者提出的时间分布：Duncan 32, Diaw 24, Bonner 6, Ayres 1 Center Splitter and Aron Baynes will jockey for minutes at center in the postseason. At this point last year, that wouldn’t have been a contest. Splitter was clearly better than Baynes, who was merely a big body with limited skills. But The Big Banger has made a huge leap this year, the type of improvement that led me to make this arguable statement in February, when Splitter was struggling. Splitter跟Baynes会互相竞争季後赛中锋的位置。同个时间的去年，这个位置不会是有 斗争的，Splitter很明显的强过只有身材没有技巧的Baynes。但是Baynes今年有着非常大 的进步，他进步的程度也让我在2月的时候有了以下的评论，那时Splitter打得很挣扎。 作者对Baynes的评论 https://twitter.com/jaredtjohnson21/status/569105139547680768 Tiago’s play has recovered since (although a calf injury has him sidelined currently), but Baynes is still right there with him. Tiago的表现也回复了(虽然他小腿的伤目前让他无法上场)，但是Baynes的表现也跟他平起 平坐。 Aron Baynes 18 Points Full Highlights (4/3/2015) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuPIZhS1Pro Although Splitter is a better defender and has a more developed basketball IQ, Baynes has a better mid-range jump shot and finishes with more power inside. If Splitter can come back healthy for the playoffs, this can be a lethal interior duo for the Spurs to throw at opponents. Both of these guys will see their playing time increase against teams with more traditional big me, like the Memphis Grizzlies and the Clippers, but decrease against small-ball teams like the Warriors. In the latter situation, Duncan will take a lot of the minutes here. Proposed minutes breakdown: Splitter 23, Baynes 16 虽然Splitter是一个比较好的防守者而他的篮球智商也比较完整，Baynes拥有比较好的 中距离跟更好的篮下表现。如果Splitter可以健康的回到季後赛，那他们两个的搭配对 马刺的对手来说是非常致命的。他们两个人都可以看到自己在对上强力内线队伍时能有 更多的上场时间(灰熊跟快艇)，而在对上小球队伍时上场时间相对会减少(勇士)。如果是 後面的情况，那Duncan会出来并得到更多的时间。 作者提出的时间分布：Splitter 23, Baynes 16 Conclusion The Spurs should feel great about the group they have heading into the playoffs. This is especially true if all healthy players stay that way and Splitter gets to 100 percent early on in the postseason. Below is a table outlining the Spurs’ minutes breakdown in the playoffs. Minutes will obviously fluctuate based on opponent and players’ hot and cold streaks. However, the projection is based on the average amount of playing time I see each player getting throughout a deep playoff run (which, let’s be real, is pretty darn likely.) 马刺应该对他们即将进入季後赛的队伍轮值感到良好。尤其是如果那些健康的球员都保持 健康，然後Splitter要尽快回到最佳的状况。以下是马刺各个位置的季後赛时间分布，当 然时间会依照对手以及选手的状况而有所变动。虽然如此，这个预测是依照我看到每个选 手在季後赛时得到的平均出赛时间(而我觉得很有可能发生)。 Also, keep in mind that the total minutes per game will be above 240 because not every player sees action in every contest. There are also imbalances in the minutes at various positions, because certain players see time at multiple positions. Note: All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/stats and accurate as of April 14 unless otherwise indicated. 还有，请注意所有的场均时间加起来会超过240，因为不是每个选手在每场都会出赛。每 个位置的时间也有可能不平衡，因为特定选手会有多个位置的出赛。 注意：所以的数字统计都是依照Basketball-Reference跟NBA.com/stats，然後到4月14号 都是准确的，除非有另外着名。 -----上场时间总结(分钟)----- 控球後卫 T. Parker (29) P. Mills (13) C. Joseph (11) 得分後卫 D. Green (31) M. Ginobili (23) M. Belinelli (12) 小前锋 K. Leonard (37) R. Williams (1) K. Anderson (1) 大前锋 T. Duncan (32) B. Diaw (24) M. Bonner (6) J. Ayers (1) 中锋 T. Splitter (23) A. Baynes (16) ---------------------------- --- 季後赛要到了 刚好看到一篇轮值分析文 想说可以翻一下 促进版友讨论XDD 究竟波波的调度是不是那麽好预测呢？ 作者本身感觉还蛮有自信的说 最後其实有些地方感觉还是翻的不好 如果错误请见谅。 --- --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 129.78.56.199 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Spurs/M.1429093023.A.B42.html ※ 编辑: baseonballs (58.96.150.166), 04/15/2015 20:51:36 ※ 编辑: baseonballs (125.254.71.41), 04/16/2015 22:14:18