作者alex710707 ()
看板RedSox
標題Travis Shaw
時間Fri Oct 16 06:24:24 2015
One of the bright spots for the Boston Red Sox in the second half of the season:
the strong major league debut of first baseman Travis Shaw.
A ninth round pick in 2011 out of Kent State University, Travis is the son of
former major league pitcher Jeff Shaw. He performed well in the low minors
but had trouble adapting to advanced pitching when he reached Double-A in
2013, hitting just .221 that year for Portland in the Eastern League,
although he showed enough power and patience to boost his wRC+ to 107;
nothing great for a first baseman but at least better than league. He made a
change to his hitting mechanics in 2014 and had a better season,
combining for a .278/.353/.473 line between Double-A and Triple-A.
He rated as a Grade C prospect for me entering 2015. I liked his strike zone
judgment and general approach, but felt that he was a mistake hitter who
could have trouble catching up with big league fastballs. Indeed, a slow
start this year for Pawtucket fit into that narrative: he hit just
.249/.318/.356 in 289 at-bats in the first half.
Shaw got promoted to the majors anyway when the Red Sox needed a bat in
August. His debut went better than could possibly be expected based on the
first half: he hit .274/.331/.491 with 13 homers in 226 at-bats for a 119
wRC+ and a 1.6 fWAR.
Repeatable in a full year? Based on the entirety of his career, he projects
as more of a .240-.250 hitter at the big league level, with decent power. A
hitter with that profile can easily hit .274/.331/.491 over such a 226 at-bat
sample without having any real change in his ability level.
That doesn't mean that Shaw can't be useful. My thinking at this point is
that Travis Shaw is the new Brian Daubach. Does that comp work for you?
John Sickles對Travis Shaw的預估
文大部分都是背景介紹,大家都知道,就不翻了,後面只講一句比較有用的話
認為他會是類似Brian Daubach的球員
Y HR
25 .294 .360 .562 21
26 .248 .315 .448 21
27 .263 .350 .509 22
28 .266 .348 .464 20
25~28歲打得很不錯,之後就開始退化了,如果Travis Shaw能打成這樣以一個
第九輪選到的也很棒了
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1F：推 roverchi: 推~ 10/16 07:41
2F：推 betadu: 這好樂觀... 10/16 09:13
3F：→ chaohsiu: 做為一壘或三壘手這樣的打擊成績還不太夠 10/16 09:51
4F：推 maxspeed150: 如果真能打成這樣以1B或3B來說其實很夠了 10/16 09:54
5F：→ maxspeed150: OPS+110~120之間雖然不會是什麼頂尖球員但也還OK了 10/16 09:55
6F：推 th11yh23: 有比Justin Smoak好一點的替補一三壘手就很不錯了 10/16 12:09
7F：推 firecrest: 比今年的熊貓好QQ 10/16 12:23
8F：→ mygoing: 應該已經比好幾年的三壘手好了吧 10/16 12:31
9F：→ alex710707: 其實我不是很喜歡Sickles的預測,他很多地方都太看數 10/16 13:02
10F：→ alex710707: 據,哪年數據好,跟著就調高評價,講白點就是太結果論, 10/16 13:02
11F：→ alex710707: 但他常常會開放給球迷問問題,且還是可以參考,預測 10/16 13:02
12F：→ alex710707: Shaw會是B.Daubach應該算是最好的情況,要再往上不太 10/16 13:02
13F：→ alex710707: 可能,這確實是有點過於樂觀 10/16 13:02
14F：推 maxspeed150: Shaw最後應該還是有點長打能力的platoon 1/3B 10/16 14:01
15F：→ maxspeed150: 能養成everyday player很好 但養不成也就算了 10/16 14:02
16F：推 KAIS: 個人蠻喜歡他的選球跟簡潔的揮棒,不過這預測實在有點樂觀 10/16 14:29
17F：推 KAIS: 若真能打成Daubach非常夠了,不下襪子時期的拿炮 10/16 14:33
18F：→ alex710707: Shaw不好預測,看到今年的Shaw我想到2013的Mike Carp, 10/16 15:26
19F：→ alex710707: Carp,不只數據漂亮,當時的揮棒看起來也很猛,只是後來 10/16 15:26
20F：→ alex710707: 就原形畢露了,Shaw明年是有可能如Sickles預測維持今 10/16 15:26
21F：→ alex710707: 年的數據,也可能變成Mike Carp,我覺得兩邊機率都不小 10/16 15:26
22F：推 Okajima: Shaw只要變成能守1/3B的Mike Carp就可在大聯盟混好多年了 10/16 16:51
23F：推 hsupigskin: 我對Shaw更樂觀 10/16 19:10
24F：推 MingXDD: 打成這樣也太威 10/16 19:34
25F：推 KAIS: 我認為能長成James Loney就很不錯了 10/16 19:56
26F：推 Okajima: 問題是襪襪不會讓道奇時期的Loney天天先發 10/17 22:23
27F：推 BrandonMai: Shaw就當Pablo和Hanley的替補就好了啊 10/18 08:43