作者alex710707 ()
看板RedSox
标题Travis Shaw
时间Fri Oct 16 06:24:24 2015
One of the bright spots for the Boston Red Sox in the second half of the season:
the strong major league debut of first baseman Travis Shaw.
A ninth round pick in 2011 out of Kent State University, Travis is the son of
former major league pitcher Jeff Shaw. He performed well in the low minors
but had trouble adapting to advanced pitching when he reached Double-A in
2013, hitting just .221 that year for Portland in the Eastern League,
although he showed enough power and patience to boost his wRC+ to 107;
nothing great for a first baseman but at least better than league. He made a
change to his hitting mechanics in 2014 and had a better season,
combining for a .278/.353/.473 line between Double-A and Triple-A.
He rated as a Grade C prospect for me entering 2015. I liked his strike zone
judgment and general approach, but felt that he was a mistake hitter who
could have trouble catching up with big league fastballs. Indeed, a slow
start this year for Pawtucket fit into that narrative: he hit just
.249/.318/.356 in 289 at-bats in the first half.
Shaw got promoted to the majors anyway when the Red Sox needed a bat in
August. His debut went better than could possibly be expected based on the
first half: he hit .274/.331/.491 with 13 homers in 226 at-bats for a 119
wRC+ and a 1.6 fWAR.
Repeatable in a full year? Based on the entirety of his career, he projects
as more of a .240-.250 hitter at the big league level, with decent power. A
hitter with that profile can easily hit .274/.331/.491 over such a 226 at-bat
sample without having any real change in his ability level.
That doesn't mean that Shaw can't be useful. My thinking at this point is
that Travis Shaw is the new Brian Daubach. Does that comp work for you?
John Sickles对Travis Shaw的预估
文大部分都是背景介绍,大家都知道,就不翻了,後面只讲一句比较有用的话
认为他会是类似Brian Daubach的球员
Y HR
25 .294 .360 .562 21
26 .248 .315 .448 21
27 .263 .350 .509 22
28 .266 .348 .464 20
25~28岁打得很不错,之後就开始退化了,如果Travis Shaw能打成这样以一个
第九轮选到的也很棒了
--
秦仲海 ：加里拉歪歪儿!!!!!!!!!!
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 211.73.166.14
※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/RedSox/M.1444947869.A.34C.html
1F：推 roverchi: 推~ 10/16 07:41
2F：推 betadu: 这好乐观... 10/16 09:13
3F：→ chaohsiu: 做为一垒或三垒手这样的打击成绩还不太够 10/16 09:51
4F：推 maxspeed150: 如果真能打成这样以1B或3B来说其实很够了 10/16 09:54
5F：→ maxspeed150: OPS+110~120之间虽然不会是什麽顶尖球员但也还OK了 10/16 09:55
6F：推 th11yh23: 有比Justin Smoak好一点的替补一三垒手就很不错了 10/16 12:09
7F：推 firecrest: 比今年的熊猫好QQ 10/16 12:23
8F：→ mygoing: 应该已经比好几年的三垒手好了吧 10/16 12:31
9F：→ alex710707: 其实我不是很喜欢Sickles的预测,他很多地方都太看数 10/16 13:02
10F：→ alex710707: 据,哪年数据好,跟着就调高评价,讲白点就是太结果论, 10/16 13:02
11F：→ alex710707: 但他常常会开放给球迷问问题,且还是可以参考,预测 10/16 13:02
12F：→ alex710707: Shaw会是B.Daubach应该算是最好的情况,要再往上不太 10/16 13:02
13F：→ alex710707: 可能,这确实是有点过於乐观 10/16 13:02
14F：推 maxspeed150: Shaw最後应该还是有点长打能力的platoon 1/3B 10/16 14:01
15F：→ maxspeed150: 能养成everyday player很好 但养不成也就算了 10/16 14:02
16F：推 KAIS: 个人蛮喜欢他的选球跟简洁的挥棒,不过这预测实在有点乐观 10/16 14:29
17F：推 KAIS: 若真能打成Daubach非常够了,不下袜子时期的拿炮 10/16 14:33
18F：→ alex710707: Shaw不好预测,看到今年的Shaw我想到2013的Mike Carp, 10/16 15:26
19F：→ alex710707: Carp,不只数据漂亮,当时的挥棒看起来也很猛,只是後来 10/16 15:26
20F：→ alex710707: 就原形毕露了,Shaw明年是有可能如Sickles预测维持今 10/16 15:26
21F：→ alex710707: 年的数据,也可能变成Mike Carp,我觉得两边机率都不小 10/16 15:26
22F：推 Okajima: Shaw只要变成能守1/3B的Mike Carp就可在大联盟混好多年了 10/16 16:51
23F：推 hsupigskin: 我对Shaw更乐观 10/16 19:10
24F：推 MingXDD: 打成这样也太威 10/16 19:34
25F：推 KAIS: 我认为能长成James Loney就很不错了 10/16 19:56
26F：推 Okajima: 问题是袜袜不会让道奇时期的Loney天天先发 10/17 22:23
27F：推 BrandonMai: Shaw就当Pablo和Hanley的替补就好了啊 10/18 08:43