※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1EFdxBkL ] 作者: sampsonlu919 (父親，願你安息) 看板: NBA 標題: [新聞] 專家解析賈奈特、鄧肯、奈許明夏去向 時間: Sun Aug 7 20:02:15 2011 NBA》專家解析賈奈特、鄧肯、奈許明夏去向 http://www.ltsports.com.tw/main/news.asp?no=86354&N_Class=3 （加蓋） 鄧肯（Tim Duncan）、賈奈特（Kevin Garnett）、奈許（Steve Nash）三員老將的 合約都將在2012年夏天到期。雖然已經無法拿到頂薪合約，但經驗豐富的三人仍然 會是諸多球隊眼中的搶手貨。 ESPN籃球專家佩爾頓（Kevin Pelton）也對三人的前景進行了分析。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ What's left for Duncan, KG, Nash? http://bbs.hoopchina.com/2566015.html (註:此為ESPN需付費專欄Insider的文章,所以我給的是HoopChina連結) By Kevin Pelton Basketball Prospectus 鄧肯 Tim Duncan Spurs coach Gregg Popovich's careful handling of Duncan's playing time has prevented him from racking up impressive per-game statistics. On offense, Duncan has dropped off. The key difference is that he no longer gets to the free throw line on a frequent basis. Historically, about 15 percent of Duncan's offense has come from free throws. That dropped to a career-low 11 percent in 2010-11. Without those easy points, Duncan's scoring efficiency has slipped below average. His role in San Antonio's attack -- already smaller than it had ever been -- might need to shrink again next season. 馬刺主帥波波維奇（Gregg Popovich）對鄧肯的使用可謂小心謹慎。不可否認，鄧肯 在場上的威脅力正在減弱，他已經沒法像以往那樣多次站上罰球線了，上季罰球在 進攻中所占的比例只有11%，為生涯最低。新賽季，他在馬刺的進攻作用可能會進一步 縮小。 Despite those caveats, Duncan remains one of the league's top big men. He ranked seventh among post players in Basketball Prospectus' wins above replacement (WARP) statistic last season. His per-minute performance put him as the league's 10th-best player. 但是鄧肯上賽季的WARP值（wins above replacement player，用以衡量球星與其替補 球員對球隊勝場所做的貢獻差額），在所有低位球員中排第7位，他每分鐘的貢獻在 聯盟排名第10位。 Presumably, Duncan will join his predecessor in retiring as a lifelong member of the Spurs. In the unlikely event he looks elsewhere, his game and temperament would be a perfect veteran complement to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder won't have cap room in 2012 but could offer some young prospects to San Antonio as part of a sign-and-trade deal. 基本可以肯定，鄧肯會終老馬刺。如果真的有萬一，那麼雷霆是不錯的選擇，他們可以 用年輕球員來交換。 賈奈特 Kevin Garnett It's rare that players can turn back the clock in their mid-30s and bounce back after battling injury, but that's just what Garnett did last season. When Garnett's athleticism waned late in the 2009-10 campaign, it seemed we might have seen the last of him playing at an elite level, but he looked healthier and more explosive from the start of 2010-11. 通常30多歲的球員在經歷傷病之後，還能強勢復蘇是很少見的。但是上賽季賈奈特 做到了，賽季初，他看起來比以往更加健康，更具爆發力。 Defensively, Garnett remains as valuable as any player besides Dwight Howard. According to Synergy Sports' tracking, Garnett was the league's most effective defender against the pick-and-roll. 防守，賈奈特之於球隊的價值僅次於哈沃德（Dwight Howard）。根據相關資料統計 顯示，KG是聯盟最擅長防守擋拆的球員。 On offense, Garnett has become mostly a pick-and-pop player, which means he rarely draws fouls or comes up with offensive boards, but his efficiency remains strong on the strength of making 53.0 percent of his 2-point attempts. 進攻，賈奈特也頗具威脅。 Last season, 14 players rated as more effective than Garnett on a per-minute basis. 上賽季，聯盟只有14人的每分鐘效率比KG更高。 Players similar to him tended to drop off at age 36, which Garnett will reach in 2012-13. However, few of them were as effective defensively as Garnett. The exception is Hakeem Olajuwon, who had a strong season at 38 before fading. On a short-term deal, Garnett should be a worthwhile risk. 到了2012-2013賽季，賈奈特將36歲，歷史上這個年齡段的球員很少有人擁有他這樣 出色的防守，唯一的例外是歐拉朱旺（Hakeem Olujuwon），打到38歲才開始走下坡 路。因此短期考慮，賈奈特是很不錯的選擇。 Because Boston might be set to rebuild if 2011-12 ends poorly, Garnett could be on the move. 如果2011-2012賽季成績不理想，塞爾提克可能會開始重建，賈奈特也可能離隊。 If Garnett's primary goal is adding a championship ring...A more intriguing possibility is for Garnett to reunite with former Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau in Chicago if Carlos Boozer wears out his welcome and could be moved in a trade. 如果KG想再拿1枚總冠軍戒指，可以去公牛。 (註:中文版其實漏譯了熱火的那一段,不過大意是說KG不大可能去邁阿密) 奈許 Steve Nash At 37, Nash is a couple of years older than the other "veteran" free agents on the market. Just five players have posted more WARP than Nash at 37 or older: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Jason Kidd, Karl Malone, Robert Parish and John Stockton. 他已經37歲了，但在歷史上，只有5名球員在37歲以上的年齡，打出的WARP值比奈許 更高。 Although last season produced Nash's lowest WARP total since he returned to Phoenix in 2004,...He remains as dangerous off the pick-and-roll as anyone in the league and was sixth among point guards in WARP -- ahead of players such as Chauncey Billups and Rajon Rondo. 儘管上季，奈許的WARP值是2004年重返太陽以來最低的，可他仍然是聯盟最危險的 控衛之一，WARP值比畢拉普斯（Chauncey Billups）和朗度（Rajon Rondo）高。 Nash might be perfectly content to finish out his career with the Suns, who have shown no inclination to trade him despite their dim prospects for competing in the Western Conference. Should that change, the obvious fit is a reunion with Mike D'Antoni in New York if the Knicks strike out on younger point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Nash also could be an asset to the Orlando Magic, whose pick-and-roll game would be ideal for him, or the Portland Trail Blazers now that their offense no longer runs through Brandon Roy. 奈許希望留守太陽，如果雙方真的分道揚鑣，那麼最合適他的應該是前主帥狄安東尼 （Mike D’Antoni）的尼克，前提是尼克追求保羅（Chris Paul）或德隆．威廉斯 （Deron Williams）失敗。 Nash also could be an asset tothe Orlando Magic, whose pick-and-roll game would be ideal for him, or the Portland Trail Blazers now that their offense no longer runs through Brandon Roy. 魔術和拓荒者也是不錯的選擇。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 其實這也是ESPN Insider最近推出的暑期專題之一 不過跟5 on 5專欄不同的地方,在於Insider的專題報導 主題是比較偏重在明年的暑期自由市場 如果有興趣的球迷,可以參考以下ESPN其他對2012自由市場的分析報導 #Dwight Howard: http://bbs.hoopchina.com/2559411.html #Deron Williams: http://bbs.hoopchina.com/2559299.html #Chris Paul: http://bbs.hoopchina.com/2559309.html #08梯新秀(Rose,Love,Westbrook..等): http://bbs.hoopchina.com/2569151.html -- / \ Ｕ　 ny ★ 小 　Ｇ　 　鷹 囧 ◆ 口 / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ Ｖ　 口 口 口 口 口 口 口 口 英囧 大囧寧 小囧寧 囧莫 囧利斯 囧傑斯 囧克 囧萊迪 囧-Roe --

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.240.23.32 ※ 編輯: urbanroot 來自: 123.240.23.32 (08/07 20:36)