樂透有理 摃龜無礙 Mar 26, 2007《紐時周報全文精譯》 Lottery Makes Sense, Even for the Losers 張佑生譯 最起碼撲克牌桌還有點氣氛，高腳酒杯交擊的清脆聲、扶手椅上殘存的1990 年代薄荷菸餘味，附近現金散發出的淡淡麝香味。 At least poker tables have some atmosphere, a jingle of highball glasses, a hint of 1990s menthol smoke in the armchairs, the sweet musk of nearby cash. 但誰會為了微乎其微的中獎機會，跺著凍僵的雙腳在街角的一間商店外排隊 買樂透彩？ But who wants to stamp their frozen feet waiting in line outside a corner store for an infinitesimal shot at winning the lotto? 答案是數以百萬計的美國人，這些人最近把12州聯營的億萬彩樂透彩金推高 到3.9億美元。 The answer is millions of Americans, who recently pushed the 12-state Mega Millions total to $390 million. 2002年的一項全國調查發現，約66%的美國成年人在前一年裡玩過樂透，13% 的人每周都玩。 A 2002 nationwide survey found that some 66 percent of United States adults had played lotteries in the previous year, and 13 percent on a weekly basis. 問題是為什麼。億萬彩樂透官員估計贏得下一次大獎1200萬美元的機率是1億 7571萬1536分之一，只要上過一學期高中數學，就看得出中獎機率有多低。 The question is why. Mega officials put the odds of winning the next big score, $12 million, at I in 175,711,536, and anyone with a semester of high school mathematics can see what a fool’s bet that is. 研究成癮問題的人和一些經濟學家拚命想要解釋這種行為。最好聽的說法是 ，這是一種非理性的狂熱；最不堪的說法則是，這是對於彩券賭博的病態沉溺。 Addiction researchers and some economists struggle to explain this behavior, describing it at best as an irrational fever, and at worst a pathological addiction to a numbers game. 但是研究者幾乎沒有花時間實地去看看街角商店排隊買樂透的人龍。 But researchers spend little time in corner-store lines. 「貶損樂透迷的人就像是對性愛念頭感到厭惡的10歲孩童，他們對性愛的 樂趣沒有感覺，所以說它非理性。」維吉尼亞州喬治梅森大學法律系教授柯恩 如此表示，他是經濟分析論文「樂透、自由與立法機構」的作者，自己也是賭 客。 “The people who denigrate lottery players are like 10-year-olds who are disgusted by the idea of sex: they are numb to its pleasures, so they say it’s not rational,” said Lloyd Cohen, a professor of law at George Mason University in Virginia and author of an economic analysis, “Lotteries, Liberty and Legislatures,” who is himself a gambler. 柯恩博士認為樂透彩券不是投資，而是一次性使用的消費商品，這種說法 徹底改變了觀照這個問題的角度。如同一本看過就可扔掉的生活雜誌，樂透彩 券同樣讓人懷有脫胎換骨的幻夢：一間酒窖、一座游泳池、熱帶的藍色海水白 色沙灘映入眼簾。不同的是，樂透彩券真能幫你實現夢想。 Dr. Cohen argues that lottery tickets are not an investment but a disposable consumer purchase, which changes the equation radically. Like a throwaway lifestyle magazine, lottery tickets engage transforming fantasies: a wine cellar, a pool, a vision of tropical blue water and white sand. The difference is that the ticket can deliver. 由於中獎全靠運氣，樂透彩圈充斥著好玩的數字迷信。你的生日數字連一 毛錢都沒幫你贏過？試試你的結婚日期。心理學家研究發現，樂透彩券的持有 者不願以手中的彩券交換別張彩券，正是因為自覺挑中了神奇的數字而產生一 種支配掌控的幻覺。 Because it is pure luck, the lottery allows for plenty of very enjoyable number superstitions. Your birthday digits never won you a dime? Try your marriage date. In studies, psychologists have found that ticket holders are reluctant to trade their tickets for others, precisely because they have an illusion of control from having picked magical numbers. 這種感覺的力量讓開獎前的等待有了目的。獲得重大收益的期望，無論多 麼遙不可及，本身就是快樂的來源。在研究嗑藥者和下注的健康成年人腦部顯 影時，神經科學家發現對於報償的期待跟報償本身在腦部所活化的迴路是一樣 的。 This sense of power infuses the waiting period with purpose. And the hope of a huge payoff, however remote, is itself a source of pleasure. In brain-imaging studies of drug users, as well as healthy adults placing bets, neuroscientists have found that the prospect of a reward activates the same circuits in the brain that the payoffs themselves do. 麻州梅得福的「病態賭博與相關疾病研究中心」執行長萊里表示：「不僅 是中獎，期待中獎也讓人興奮，兩者在神經生物學上是類似的體驗。」 “It’s not just winning the money but anticipating winning the money that is exciting, and the two experiences are similar neurobiologically,” said Christine Reilly, executive director of the Institute for Research Massachusetts. 巨大的獎賞讓大多數人變得魯莽，不分贏家或輸家。佛蒙特大學2003年的 一項研究發現，曾說中獎後希望逐年支領彩金（一般認為這比一次全額支領更 安全）的樂透玩家，真正中獎後通常會改變心意。研究人員發現，彩金越高人 們越可能選擇全額支領。 Large rewards make most people reckless, whether they’re on the winning or losing end. A 2003 University of Vermont study found that lottery players who said they preferred to receive potential winnings in annuity payments － generally thought to be safer than receiving the money all at once, in a lump sum － often changed their minds when they actually won. And the higher the jackpot, the more likely people were to prefer a lump-sum payout, the researchers found. 同樣，對股票交易商的研究發現，若臨收時操作仍失利，交易商為圖擺脫 虧損，比平常更可能冒險買進賣出，承受更大的損失。 Likewise, studies of stock traders have found that, when behind late in the day, they are more likely than usual to make risky bets, and take heavier losses, in an attempt to get out of the red. 「關鍵在於，在心理上我們認為，大賠小賠都是賠。」麻省理工學院行為 經濟學家艾瑞里表示：「而且一旦你玩上了，你會想：好吧，如果有機會可以 翻本，為何不砸更多錢下去？」同樣地，感覺人生成功機會變小的人，更可能 玩樂透，或者更常玩。 “The point is that, psychologically, we think of a loss as a loss, big or small,” said Dr. DanAriely, a behavioral economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And once you’re into it, you think: Well, why not take a bigger loss, if there’s some chance lean turn it into a gain? ” Similarly, people who feel that the opportunities to succeed in life are narrowing, are more likely to play the lottery, or play more often. 但是在大多數情況下，所有的中獎機率與彩券數字似乎都比不上想到可能 大翻身帶來的單純喜悅。 But in most cases all the odds and numbers seem to pale next to the simple pleasure of possible transformation. 「我不知道如果中獎後會做什麼，」一名排隊買彩券的男子告訴記者：「 錢多到無法想像。」 “I don’t know what I’ll do if I win,” one man standing in a lottery ticket line told a reporter. “It’s too much money to think about.” 誠哉斯言。 Exactly. By BENEDICT CAREY 【2007-03-30/聯合報/C4版/教育】 -- 大弦嘈嘈如急雨，小弦切切如私語。 嘈嘈切切錯雜彈，大珠小珠落玉盤。 間關鶯語花底滑，幽咽泉流水下灘。 水泉冷澀弦凝絕，凝絕不通聲漸歇。 別有幽愁暗恨生，此時無聲勝有聲。 銀瓶乍破水漿迸，鐵騎突出刀槍鳴。 曲終收撥當心畫，四弦一聲如裂帛。 東船西舫悄無言，唯見江心秋月白。 --

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