乐透有理 摃龟无碍 Mar 26, 2007《纽时周报全文精译》 Lottery Makes Sense, Even for the Losers 张佑生译 最起码扑克牌桌还有点气氛，高脚酒杯交击的清脆声、扶手椅上残存的1990 年代薄荷菸余味，附近现金散发出的淡淡麝香味。 At least poker tables have some atmosphere, a jingle of highball glasses, a hint of 1990s menthol smoke in the armchairs, the sweet musk of nearby cash. 但谁会为了微乎其微的中奖机会，跺着冻僵的双脚在街角的一间商店外排队 买乐透彩？ But who wants to stamp their frozen feet waiting in line outside a corner store for an infinitesimal shot at winning the lotto? 答案是数以百万计的美国人，这些人最近把12州联营的亿万彩乐透彩金推高 到3.9亿美元。 The answer is millions of Americans, who recently pushed the 12-state Mega Millions total to $390 million. 2002年的一项全国调查发现，约66%的美国成年人在前一年里玩过乐透，13% 的人每周都玩。 A 2002 nationwide survey found that some 66 percent of United States adults had played lotteries in the previous year, and 13 percent on a weekly basis. 问题是为什麽。亿万彩乐透官员估计赢得下一次大奖1200万美元的机率是1亿 7571万1536分之一，只要上过一学期高中数学，就看得出中奖机率有多低。 The question is why. Mega officials put the odds of winning the next big score, $12 million, at I in 175,711,536, and anyone with a semester of high school mathematics can see what a fool’s bet that is. 研究成瘾问题的人和一些经济学家拚命想要解释这种行为。最好听的说法是 ，这是一种非理性的狂热；最不堪的说法则是，这是对於彩券赌博的病态沉溺。 Addiction researchers and some economists struggle to explain this behavior, describing it at best as an irrational fever, and at worst a pathological addiction to a numbers game. 但是研究者几乎没有花时间实地去看看街角商店排队买乐透的人龙。 But researchers spend little time in corner-store lines. 「贬损乐透迷的人就像是对性爱念头感到厌恶的10岁孩童，他们对性爱的 乐趣没有感觉，所以说它非理性。」维吉尼亚州乔治梅森大学法律系教授柯恩 如此表示，他是经济分析论文「乐透、自由与立法机构」的作者，自己也是赌 客。 “The people who denigrate lottery players are like 10-year-olds who are disgusted by the idea of sex: they are numb to its pleasures, so they say it’s not rational,” said Lloyd Cohen, a professor of law at George Mason University in Virginia and author of an economic analysis, “Lotteries, Liberty and Legislatures,” who is himself a gambler. 柯恩博士认为乐透彩券不是投资，而是一次性使用的消费商品，这种说法 彻底改变了观照这个问题的角度。如同一本看过就可扔掉的生活杂志，乐透彩 券同样让人怀有脱胎换骨的幻梦：一间酒窖、一座游泳池、热带的蓝色海水白 色沙滩映入眼帘。不同的是，乐透彩券真能帮你实现梦想。 Dr. Cohen argues that lottery tickets are not an investment but a disposable consumer purchase, which changes the equation radically. Like a throwaway lifestyle magazine, lottery tickets engage transforming fantasies: a wine cellar, a pool, a vision of tropical blue water and white sand. The difference is that the ticket can deliver. 由於中奖全靠运气，乐透彩圈充斥着好玩的数字迷信。你的生日数字连一 毛钱都没帮你赢过？试试你的结婚日期。心理学家研究发现，乐透彩券的持有 者不愿以手中的彩券交换别张彩券，正是因为自觉挑中了神奇的数字而产生一 种支配掌控的幻觉。 Because it is pure luck, the lottery allows for plenty of very enjoyable number superstitions. Your birthday digits never won you a dime? Try your marriage date. In studies, psychologists have found that ticket holders are reluctant to trade their tickets for others, precisely because they have an illusion of control from having picked magical numbers. 这种感觉的力量让开奖前的等待有了目的。获得重大收益的期望，无论多 麽遥不可及，本身就是快乐的来源。在研究嗑药者和下注的健康成年人脑部显 影时，神经科学家发现对於报偿的期待跟报偿本身在脑部所活化的回路是一样 的。 This sense of power infuses the waiting period with purpose. And the hope of a huge payoff, however remote, is itself a source of pleasure. In brain-imaging studies of drug users, as well as healthy adults placing bets, neuroscientists have found that the prospect of a reward activates the same circuits in the brain that the payoffs themselves do. 麻州梅得福的「病态赌博与相关疾病研究中心」执行长莱里表示：「不仅 是中奖，期待中奖也让人兴奋，两者在神经生物学上是类似的体验。」 “It’s not just winning the money but anticipating winning the money that is exciting, and the two experiences are similar neurobiologically,” said Christine Reilly, executive director of the Institute for Research Massachusetts. 巨大的奖赏让大多数人变得鲁莽，不分赢家或输家。佛蒙特大学2003年的 一项研究发现，曾说中奖後希望逐年支领彩金（一般认为这比一次全额支领更 安全）的乐透玩家，真正中奖後通常会改变心意。研究人员发现，彩金越高人 们越可能选择全额支领。 Large rewards make most people reckless, whether they’re on the winning or losing end. A 2003 University of Vermont study found that lottery players who said they preferred to receive potential winnings in annuity payments － generally thought to be safer than receiving the money all at once, in a lump sum － often changed their minds when they actually won. And the higher the jackpot, the more likely people were to prefer a lump-sum payout, the researchers found. 同样，对股票交易商的研究发现，若临收时操作仍失利，交易商为图摆脱 亏损，比平常更可能冒险买进卖出，承受更大的损失。 Likewise, studies of stock traders have found that, when behind late in the day, they are more likely than usual to make risky bets, and take heavier losses, in an attempt to get out of the red. 「关键在於，在心理上我们认为，大赔小赔都是赔。」麻省理工学院行为 经济学家艾瑞里表示：「而且一旦你玩上了，你会想：好吧，如果有机会可以 翻本，为何不砸更多钱下去？」同样地，感觉人生成功机会变小的人，更可能 玩乐透，或者更常玩。 “The point is that, psychologically, we think of a loss as a loss, big or small,” said Dr. DanAriely, a behavioral economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And once you’re into it, you think: Well, why not take a bigger loss, if there’s some chance lean turn it into a gain? ” Similarly, people who feel that the opportunities to succeed in life are narrowing, are more likely to play the lottery, or play more often. 但是在大多数情况下，所有的中奖机率与彩券数字似乎都比不上想到可能 大翻身带来的单纯喜悦。 But in most cases all the odds and numbers seem to pale next to the simple pleasure of possible transformation. 「我不知道如果中奖後会做什麽，」一名排队买彩券的男子告诉记者：「 钱多到无法想像。」 “I don’t know what I’ll do if I win,” one man standing in a lottery ticket line told a reporter. “It’s too much money to think about.” 诚哉斯言。 Exactly. By BENEDICT CAREY 【2007-03-30/联合报/C4版/教育】 -- 大弦嘈嘈如急雨，小弦切切如私语。 嘈嘈切切错杂弹，大珠小珠落玉盘。 间关莺语花底滑，幽咽泉流水下滩。 水泉冷涩弦凝绝，凝绝不通声渐歇。 别有幽愁暗恨生，此时无声胜有声。 银瓶乍破水浆迸，铁骑突出刀枪鸣。 曲终收拨当心画，四弦一声如裂帛。 东船西舫悄无言，唯见江心秋月白。 --

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