Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/heat/comments/1qff17x A recent analysis on Above the Break's Substack by Nevin L. Brown uncovered something counterintuitive about Miami's offense. Despite playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, the Heat are actually less effective in transition after securing defensive rebounds than they are in halfcourt offense against a set defense. It's a puzzle that cuts against everything we assume about transition basketball, and it might explain why Miami's revamped offense hasn't translated into consistent winning. 內文·L·布朗 (Nevin L. Brown) 最近在 Above the Break 旗下的 Substack 網站上發 表的一篇分析文章揭示了邁阿密熱火隊進攻中一些反直覺的現象。儘管熱火隊的比賽節奏 在 NBA 中名列前茅，但他們搶到防守籃板後的轉換進攻效率實際上不如面對地防守時的 半場進攻效率。這完全顛覆了我們對轉換進攻籃球的固有認知，或許也能解釋為何邁阿密 熱火隊改造後的進攻體系未能轉化為持續的勝利。 League-wide, teams average 115.9 points per 100 possessions. After opponent makes, when teams have to inbound and face a set defense, that number drops to 112.86. After defensive rebounds, when transition opportunities exist, it jumps to 117.7. The pattern holds across the NBA, except for five teams: Indiana, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Miami. 全聯盟範圍內，各隊每百回合平均得分 115.9 分。對手投籃命中後，球隊需要發球並面 對對方的防守陣型，這數字會降到 112.86 分。防守籃板後，當出現轉換進攻機會時，這 個數字會躍升至 117.7 分。除五支球隊外，NBA 其他球隊普遍遵循這一規律：印第安納 步行者、亞特蘭大老鷹、布魯克林籃網、費城 76 人和邁阿密熱火。 The other four are mostly young or dysfunctional rosters (no offense to those guys). Philadelphia's issues stem from turnovers (and a whole lot of them,” Their 5.38 turnovers per 100 possessions increase is not only the largest in the league, it doesn’t even have a neighbor.” Miami's situation is different. 其他四支球隊大多是年輕球員或陣容不整（並非有意冒犯）。費城的問題在於失誤（而且 失誤非常多，「他們每百回合失誤數增加了5.38次，不僅是聯盟最高，而且沒有其他球隊 能與之匹敵。」邁阿密的情況則有所不同。 The Heat post an offensive rating of 115.98 after opponent makes, 3.12 points above league average. But after defensive rebounds, their offensive rating is actually -6.27 pts/100 worse than after a make, making them the biggest negative outlier. 熱火隊在對手投籃得分後的進攻效率值為115.98，比聯盟平均高出3.12分。但搶到防守籃 板後，他們的進攻效率值反而比對手投籃得分後低了6.27分/100回合，成為聯盟中負值最 大的異常值。 Brown breaks it down further: the Heat average just 9.14 seconds per possession before attempting a shot following defensive rebounds, the fastest in the league. That speed produces the second-worst first-shot offense in these situations. Quoting his high school coach: "Be quick, but don't hurry." The Heat are hurrying. 布朗進一步分析：熱火隊在搶到防守籃板後，平均每次進攻回合出手僅需9.14秒，是聯盟 最快的。然而，這樣的速度卻導致了聯盟第二差的首攻效率。正如他高中教練所說：「速 度要快，但不要操之過急。」但熱火隊急於求成。 This inefficiency exists despite (or perhaps as a consequence of) Miami's offensive overhaul. After ranking in the bottom third in offensive rating over the past three seasons, Spoelstra consulted with former Grizzlies assistant Noah LaRoche to install a free-flowing, motion-based system that largely eliminated pick-and-rolls. Miami's screen usage dropped from 68.9 per 100 possessions last season to roughly 18 this season, the lowest in the league. The offense relies on spacing, one-on-one attacks, and constant player movement. 儘管邁阿密熱火隊對進攻體系進行了徹底改革（或許正是改革的結果），但球隊的進攻效 率仍然低。過去三個賽季，熱火隊的進攻效率一直排名聯盟倒數三分之一。為了解決這個 問題，主教練斯波爾斯特拉聘請了前灰熊隊助教諾亞·拉羅什，打造了一套流暢、以跑動 為主的進攻體系，大幅減少了擋拆配合。熱火隊的擋拆使用率從上季的每百回合68.9次驟 降至本賽季的約18次，為聯盟最低。這套進攻體係依賴拉開空間、一對一單打以及球員的 持續跑動。 The early results were promising, but the system's emphasis on pace has created an unintended side effect. Without the structure that screens provide, Miami's transition offense at times feels chaotic. Players push tempo without purpose, arriving early but settling for poor looks, or possibly just feeling rushed when taking good looks. 初期效果令人鼓舞，但該體系對速度的過度強調卻產生了意想不到的副作用。由於缺乏掩 護提供的組織，邁阿密的轉換進攻有時會顯得混亂。球員們漫無目的地加快節奏，雖然提 前到達進攻位置，但往往只能獲得糟糕的投籃機會，或者在獲得不錯的投籃機會時也感到 倉促。 According to shotquality.com, the Heat look a little unlucky, but not in a way that points to some big, bankable positive regression. However, that still leads me to question whether the rushed pace isn't just creating poor shot selection but also if it’s causing players to miss what should be makeable looks. The pressure of playing that fast might be affecting execution more than the quality of opportunities themselves. 根據 shotquality.com 的數據，熱火看起來有點運氣不佳，但這種運氣不佳並不預示著 球隊會有大幅、可靠的進步。然而，這仍然讓我質疑，快節奏的比賽是否不僅導致了糟糕 的投籃選擇，還可能導致球員錯過本應把握住的機會。如此快速的比賽節奏帶來的壓力， 或許比投籃機會本身的品質更能影響球員的執行力。 Which might explain why the Heat have recently begun reincorporating screens. Against Phoenix, Miami used over 30 screens per 100 possessions, well above their season average. The result was a win, though Spoelstra warned about finding balance. 這或許可以解釋為什麼熱火最近開始重新使用擋拆戰術。在對陣菲尼克斯太陽隊的比賽中 ，邁阿密每百回合使用了超過30次擋拆，遠高於賽季平均水平。最終他們贏得了比賽，但 斯波爾斯特拉教練也警告說，需要找到雙方的平衡。 The path forward seems clear: recognize when transition advantages actually exist. If defenders are recovering, Miami benefits from slowing into their read-and-react system rather than forcing early shots. Their offense after opponent makes proves they're capable of executing in structure. They just need to stop treating every defensive rebound like a fast break when the defense is already set. Speed only matters if it creates real advantages. 前進的方向似乎很明確：要懂得何時才能真正獲得轉換進攻的優勢。如果防守球員正在回 防，邁阿密應該放慢節奏，按照他們的閱讀防守體系進行反應，而不是強行出手。對手得 分後，他們的進攻展現了良好的執行力。他們只需要在防守已經就位的情況下，停止把每 個防守籃板當作快攻。速度只有在能夠創造真正的優勢時才重要。 --

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