Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/heat/comments/1qff17x A recent analysis on Above the Break's Substack by Nevin L. Brown uncovered something counterintuitive about Miami's offense. Despite playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, the Heat are actually less effective in transition after securing defensive rebounds than they are in halfcourt offense against a set defense. It's a puzzle that cuts against everything we assume about transition basketball, and it might explain why Miami's revamped offense hasn't translated into consistent winning. 内文·L·布朗 (Nevin L. Brown) 最近在 Above the Break 旗下的 Substack 网站上发 表的一篇分析文章揭示了迈阿密热火队进攻中一些反直觉的现象。尽管热火队的比赛节奏 在 NBA 中名列前茅，但他们抢到防守篮板後的转换进攻效率实际上不如面对地防守时的 半场进攻效率。这完全颠覆了我们对转换进攻篮球的固有认知，或许也能解释为何迈阿密 热火队改造後的进攻体系未能转化为持续的胜利。 League-wide, teams average 115.9 points per 100 possessions. After opponent makes, when teams have to inbound and face a set defense, that number drops to 112.86. After defensive rebounds, when transition opportunities exist, it jumps to 117.7. The pattern holds across the NBA, except for five teams: Indiana, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Miami. 全联盟范围内，各队每百回合平均得分 115.9 分。对手投篮命中後，球队需要发球并面 对对方的防守阵型，这数字会降到 112.86 分。防守篮板後，当出现转换进攻机会时，这 个数字会跃升至 117.7 分。除五支球队外，NBA 其他球队普遍遵循这一规律：印第安纳 步行者、亚特兰大老鹰、布鲁克林篮网、费城 76 人和迈阿密热火。 The other four are mostly young or dysfunctional rosters (no offense to those guys). Philadelphia's issues stem from turnovers (and a whole lot of them,” Their 5.38 turnovers per 100 possessions increase is not only the largest in the league, it doesn’t even have a neighbor.” Miami's situation is different. 其他四支球队大多是年轻球员或阵容不整（并非有意冒犯）。费城的问题在於失误（而且 失误非常多，「他们每百回合失误数增加了5.38次，不仅是联盟最高，而且没有其他球队 能与之匹敌。」迈阿密的情况则有所不同。 The Heat post an offensive rating of 115.98 after opponent makes, 3.12 points above league average. But after defensive rebounds, their offensive rating is actually -6.27 pts/100 worse than after a make, making them the biggest negative outlier. 热火队在对手投篮得分後的进攻效率值为115.98，比联盟平均高出3.12分。但抢到防守篮 板後，他们的进攻效率值反而比对手投篮得分後低了6.27分/100回合，成为联盟中负值最 大的异常值。 Brown breaks it down further: the Heat average just 9.14 seconds per possession before attempting a shot following defensive rebounds, the fastest in the league. That speed produces the second-worst first-shot offense in these situations. Quoting his high school coach: "Be quick, but don't hurry." The Heat are hurrying. 布朗进一步分析：热火队在抢到防守篮板後，平均每次进攻回合出手仅需9.14秒，是联盟 最快的。然而，这样的速度却导致了联盟第二差的首攻效率。正如他高中教练所说：「速 度要快，但不要操之过急。」但热火队急於求成。 This inefficiency exists despite (or perhaps as a consequence of) Miami's offensive overhaul. After ranking in the bottom third in offensive rating over the past three seasons, Spoelstra consulted with former Grizzlies assistant Noah LaRoche to install a free-flowing, motion-based system that largely eliminated pick-and-rolls. Miami's screen usage dropped from 68.9 per 100 possessions last season to roughly 18 this season, the lowest in the league. The offense relies on spacing, one-on-one attacks, and constant player movement. 尽管迈阿密热火队对进攻体系进行了彻底改革（或许正是改革的结果），但球队的进攻效 率仍然低。过去三个赛季，热火队的进攻效率一直排名联盟倒数三分之一。为了解决这个 问题，主教练斯波尔斯特拉聘请了前灰熊队助教诺亚·拉罗什，打造了一套流畅、以跑动 为主的进攻体系，大幅减少了挡拆配合。热火队的挡拆使用率从上季的每百回合68.9次骤 降至本赛季的约18次，为联盟最低。这套进攻体系依赖拉开空间、一对一单打以及球员的 持续跑动。 The early results were promising, but the system's emphasis on pace has created an unintended side effect. Without the structure that screens provide, Miami's transition offense at times feels chaotic. Players push tempo without purpose, arriving early but settling for poor looks, or possibly just feeling rushed when taking good looks. 初期效果令人鼓舞，但该体系对速度的过度强调却产生了意想不到的副作用。由於缺乏掩 护提供的组织，迈阿密的转换进攻有时会显得混乱。球员们漫无目的地加快节奏，虽然提 前到达进攻位置，但往往只能获得糟糕的投篮机会，或者在获得不错的投篮机会时也感到 仓促。 According to shotquality.com, the Heat look a little unlucky, but not in a way that points to some big, bankable positive regression. However, that still leads me to question whether the rushed pace isn't just creating poor shot selection but also if it’s causing players to miss what should be makeable looks. The pressure of playing that fast might be affecting execution more than the quality of opportunities themselves. 根据 shotquality.com 的数据，热火看起来有点运气不佳，但这种运气不佳并不预示着 球队会有大幅、可靠的进步。然而，这仍然让我质疑，快节奏的比赛是否不仅导致了糟糕 的投篮选择，还可能导致球员错过本应把握住的机会。如此快速的比赛节奏带来的压力， 或许比投篮机会本身的品质更能影响球员的执行力。 Which might explain why the Heat have recently begun reincorporating screens. Against Phoenix, Miami used over 30 screens per 100 possessions, well above their season average. The result was a win, though Spoelstra warned about finding balance. 这或许可以解释为什麽热火最近开始重新使用挡拆战术。在对阵菲尼克斯太阳队的比赛中 ，迈阿密每百回合使用了超过30次挡拆，远高於赛季平均水平。最终他们赢得了比赛，但 斯波尔斯特拉教练也警告说，需要找到双方的平衡。 The path forward seems clear: recognize when transition advantages actually exist. If defenders are recovering, Miami benefits from slowing into their read-and-react system rather than forcing early shots. Their offense after opponent makes proves they're capable of executing in structure. They just need to stop treating every defensive rebound like a fast break when the defense is already set. Speed only matters if it creates real advantages. 前进的方向似乎很明确：要懂得何时才能真正获得转换进攻的优势。如果防守球员正在回 防，迈阿密应该放慢节奏，按照他们的阅读防守体系进行反应，而不是强行出手。对手得 分後，他们的进攻展现了良好的执行力。他们只需要在防守已经就位的情况下，停止把每 个防守篮板当作快攻。速度只有在能够创造真正的优势时才重要。 --

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