原文自：John Sickels' blog http://0rz.tw/da4Ih Ian Kinsler was drafted by the Rangers in the 17th round in 2003, from the University of Missouri. I saw him play in college. He looked OK...a decent athlete, good swing, some command of the zone, reasonable defense, but didn't strike me as having enough pop in his bat to really thrive at higher levels. He hit .277/.352/.410 for Spokane in the Northwest League after signing, credible but hardly outstanding performance. I did not put him in the 2004 book but would have rated him a Grade C at the time. 來自密蘇里大學的Kinsler在03年以17輪被條子選中。我曾經看過他的大學比賽， 看起來不錯，標準的運動員，優秀的揮棒、不錯的選球能力、防守能力。但是他無法 打出足夠的長打，所以沒有引起我的注意，他必須想辦法在更高的比賽階層改善才是。 他不在我04年的焦點人物內，不過我還是給他了一個C的評價。 (修正：我沒有在04年的書裡給他評價，不過回到那時候，我會給他C) Kinsler began 2004 with Clinton in the Midwest League and hit a stunning .402/.465/.692 in 59 games. Promoted to Frisco in the Texas League at mid-season, skipping High-A, he hit .300/.400/.480 in 71 games. He stole 23 bases on the year. I saw him play late in the year and he didn't look like the same guy I saw for Mizzou. He still had the good swing and nice strike zone judgment, but he was much stronger physically (the result of a strength training program), had more bat speed and much more pop, and even appeared to have a stronger arm. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2005 book. 04年，Kinsler在1A的59場比賽中打出鬼神般.402/.465/.692的成績，所以在季中跳過 高階1A直接上到了2A，在2A的成績是.300/.400/.480，而且整年下來盜上23個壘包。我 在後半年看他比賽，並發現他跟我在大學時看到的人有著大大的不同。他的揮棒、選球 能力依舊優秀，但是他的身體更強壯、揮棒速度更快、更能咬中球、甚至展現很強的傳 球臂力。所以05年我給他評價是B+。 2005 wasn't quite as impressive: .274/.348/.464 with 19 steals for Triple-A Oklahoma. But it was a decent consolidation season, he maintained his plate discipline, and improved defense at second base. Some scouts said he had a long swing, but this didn't show up statistically, with 89 strikeouts in 530 at-bats hardly being out of bounds. I lowered his grade slightly to Grade B, and wrote that he should hit .260-.280 in the majors with "considerable pop." 05年在3A .274/.348/.464 加上19次盜壘，不怎麼引人注目。他的選球能力依舊、在二 壘的防守能力有所進步，稱得上中規中矩。有些球探說他可以打出很多長打，但是在數 據上顯示的530打數83次三振中，尚未展現出來。我把他的評價降低為B，並加註他應該 會在大聯盟打出.260-.280加上許多長打。 (修正：從「有些球探說....」開始，有些球探說他的揮棒軌跡過長，但是在數據 上沒有顯示三振過多的毛病。) That analysis looked dead-on in his first two seasons. He hit .286/.347/.454 for the Rangers in 2006, then .263/.355/.441 in 2007. This year he has taken that a step forward with a .319/.375/.517 mark, including 41 doubles and 18 homers. His walk rate is down a little this year, but his strikeout rate is way down...just 67 Ks this year in 518 at-bats compared to 83 in 483 at-bats last season. His OPS is +135. He's a bit error-prone defensively. His range factors are above average, but both Fielding Bible and Baseball Prospectus rate him as below average defensively this year. However, you can accept average/mediocre defense from a second baseman who hits like this. 不過那項加註和他頭兩個球季不符。 在條子隊裡，06年打出.286/.347/.454、07年.263/.355/.441。 今年他更進一步打出.319/.375/.517，包括41支2B、18支HR。即使撿保送比例稍微下降 ，不過和去年483打數裡被三振83次比較，今年518打數裡只被三振67次，更是大幅降低 被三振的比例。 他今年的OPS+是135。 他在防守上經常會犯些錯誤，即使他的Range factor高於平均，FB和BP還是將他的守備 能力評價為低於平均。不管如何，若是他的打擊成績很好，防守差一點又如何？ This could be his career year and it wouldn't surprise me to see him move back a bit next year or in 2010 back to "just" 2006-2007 level performance. If he can maintain where he is now, let alone improve, he'll be excellent of course. This is a good example of a late-blooming player who already had a good measure of polish when he entered pro ball, but who got stronger and was able to unleash that ability. He's a personal favorite. Only a handful of players from the 2003 draft are as good as Kinsler, and he's certainly outperformed many more heralded talents. Scouting and drafting will always be an inexact science/art. 今年會是他的生涯年，不過往後兩年他的成績縮退到06、07年的樣子也不必訝異。 如果他能維持他現在的成績、甚至進化，那他將會是個非常好的球員。這是一個球員 在進大聯盟時已有相當程度的磨練，但是以努力讓自身能力綻放得更漂亮的好例子。 在03年選秀會上只有少部分的人能打得像Kinsler一樣好，而他絕對比這些人優秀。 情蒐和選秀總是一門不精確的科學。 (通篇應該有些地方會翻錯XD) -- t a ╭◥███◣══╮ ◥██ █◤ ╭══════theanswer3╮ h n ║ █▌ █ ● ╰══════╯█▌ █╰══╯● ◣ ║ e s ║ █▄▄◤ ◢ ◢█◣ . █▌ █ ◢█◣ ◢ ◥█◣ ☆╴D ║ w ║ █▄▄◣ █ █▌█.‵﹑ ˙ █▌ █ █▌█ █ █ ︻ ▄ ║ e ║ █▌ █ ◤ ◥██∵ ￠☆ ────────────── ﹀ ╭▄﹀ r 3╰◢███◤═══▄◤═〞′══◥██◤═══════════════╯ --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.116.171.191 ※ 編輯: jayin07 來自: 122.116.171.191 (09/03 12:28) ※ mayfirst:轉錄至看板 Rangers 09/03 12:30