原文自：John Sickels' blog http://0rz.tw/da4Ih Ian Kinsler was drafted by the Rangers in the 17th round in 2003, from the University of Missouri. I saw him play in college. He looked OK...a decent athlete, good swing, some command of the zone, reasonable defense, but didn't strike me as having enough pop in his bat to really thrive at higher levels. He hit .277/.352/.410 for Spokane in the Northwest League after signing, credible but hardly outstanding performance. I did not put him in the 2004 book but would have rated him a Grade C at the time. 来自密苏里大学的Kinsler在03年以17轮被条子选中。我曾经看过他的大学比赛， 看起来不错，标准的运动员，优秀的挥棒、不错的选球能力、防守能力。但是他无法 打出足够的长打，所以没有引起我的注意，他必须想办法在更高的比赛阶层改善才是。 他不在我04年的焦点人物内，不过我还是给他了一个C的评价。 (修正：我没有在04年的书里给他评价，不过回到那时候，我会给他C) Kinsler began 2004 with Clinton in the Midwest League and hit a stunning .402/.465/.692 in 59 games. Promoted to Frisco in the Texas League at mid-season, skipping High-A, he hit .300/.400/.480 in 71 games. He stole 23 bases on the year. I saw him play late in the year and he didn't look like the same guy I saw for Mizzou. He still had the good swing and nice strike zone judgment, but he was much stronger physically (the result of a strength training program), had more bat speed and much more pop, and even appeared to have a stronger arm. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2005 book. 04年，Kinsler在1A的59场比赛中打出鬼神般.402/.465/.692的成绩，所以在季中跳过 高阶1A直接上到了2A，在2A的成绩是.300/.400/.480，而且整年下来盗上23个垒包。我 在後半年看他比赛，并发现他跟我在大学时看到的人有着大大的不同。他的挥棒、选球 能力依旧优秀，但是他的身体更强壮、挥棒速度更快、更能咬中球、甚至展现很强的传 球臂力。所以05年我给他评价是B+。 2005 wasn't quite as impressive: .274/.348/.464 with 19 steals for Triple-A Oklahoma. But it was a decent consolidation season, he maintained his plate discipline, and improved defense at second base. Some scouts said he had a long swing, but this didn't show up statistically, with 89 strikeouts in 530 at-bats hardly being out of bounds. I lowered his grade slightly to Grade B, and wrote that he should hit .260-.280 in the majors with "considerable pop." 05年在3A .274/.348/.464 加上19次盗垒，不怎麽引人注目。他的选球能力依旧、在二 垒的防守能力有所进步，称得上中规中矩。有些球探说他可以打出很多长打，但是在数 据上显示的530打数83次三振中，尚未展现出来。我把他的评价降低为B，并加注他应该 会在大联盟打出.260-.280加上许多长打。 (修正：从「有些球探说....」开始，有些球探说他的挥棒轨迹过长，但是在数据 上没有显示三振过多的毛病。) That analysis looked dead-on in his first two seasons. He hit .286/.347/.454 for the Rangers in 2006, then .263/.355/.441 in 2007. This year he has taken that a step forward with a .319/.375/.517 mark, including 41 doubles and 18 homers. His walk rate is down a little this year, but his strikeout rate is way down...just 67 Ks this year in 518 at-bats compared to 83 in 483 at-bats last season. His OPS is +135. He's a bit error-prone defensively. His range factors are above average, but both Fielding Bible and Baseball Prospectus rate him as below average defensively this year. However, you can accept average/mediocre defense from a second baseman who hits like this. 不过那项加注和他头两个球季不符。 在条子队里，06年打出.286/.347/.454、07年.263/.355/.441。 今年他更进一步打出.319/.375/.517，包括41支2B、18支HR。即使捡保送比例稍微下降 ，不过和去年483打数里被三振83次比较，今年518打数里只被三振67次，更是大幅降低 被三振的比例。 他今年的OPS+是135。 他在防守上经常会犯些错误，即使他的Range factor高於平均，FB和BP还是将他的守备 能力评价为低於平均。不管如何，若是他的打击成绩很好，防守差一点又如何？ This could be his career year and it wouldn't surprise me to see him move back a bit next year or in 2010 back to "just" 2006-2007 level performance. If he can maintain where he is now, let alone improve, he'll be excellent of course. This is a good example of a late-blooming player who already had a good measure of polish when he entered pro ball, but who got stronger and was able to unleash that ability. He's a personal favorite. Only a handful of players from the 2003 draft are as good as Kinsler, and he's certainly outperformed many more heralded talents. Scouting and drafting will always be an inexact science/art. 今年会是他的生涯年，不过往後两年他的成绩缩退到06、07年的样子也不必讶异。 如果他能维持他现在的成绩、甚至进化，那他将会是个非常好的球员。这是一个球员 在进大联盟时已有相当程度的磨练，但是以努力让自身能力绽放得更漂亮的好例子。 在03年选秀会上只有少部分的人能打得像Kinsler一样好，而他绝对比这些人优秀。 情蒐和选秀总是一门不精确的科学。 (通篇应该有些地方会翻错XD) -- t a ╭◥███◣══╮ ◥██ █◤ ╭══════theanswer3╮ h n ║ █▌ █ ● ╰══════╯█▌ █╰══╯● ◣ ║ e s ║ █▄▄◤ ◢ ◢█◣ . █▌ █ ◢█◣ ◢ ◥█◣ ☆╴D ║ w ║ █▄▄◣ █ █▌█.‵﹑ ˙ █▌ █ █▌█ █ █ ︻ ▄ ║ e ║ █▌ █ ◤ ◥██∵ ￠☆ ────────────── ﹀ ╭▄﹀ r 3╰◢███◤═══▄◤═〞′══◥██◤═══════════════╯ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.116.171.191 ※ 编辑: jayin07 来自: 122.116.171.191 (09/03 12:28) ※ mayfirst:转录至看板 Rangers 09/03 12:30