本譯文僅供非營利用途，轉載請標明原作者: David Pinto http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6567 The Big Picture The Big Picture系列文(2007年8月8日) Evolving the Save Rule by David Pinto Back in 1973, in the days when Sparky Lyle and Tug McGraw toiled in the late innings for the New York teams, Bruce Stark of the New York Daily News drew a series of caricatures of the Yankees and Mets. (Here's the Tom Seaver drawing from the series.) When he drew the closers, Stark depicted Sparky and Tug as firemen, a title that stuck to all relievers. That term eventually disappeared from the lexicon of relief pitching—in 2001, the Sporting News changed the name of their award for relievers from Fireman of the Year to put out the fire. 回到1973年，在Sparky Lyle 與 Tug McGraw 分別為NYY與NYM在比賽的後 段局數辛苦奮鬥的日子，New York Daily News的漫畫家Bruce Stark畫了一系列有關這兩 隊的漫畫。(現在這些漫畫是由Tom Seaver接手。) 當他畫終結者的時候，Stark把Sparky 與Tug畫成救火隊員，一個標在所有後援投手(RP)身上的名詞。 這個詞最後從有關RP的辭 彙消失－在2001年，Sporting News雜誌改變了他們那個頒給RP獎項的名稱，從年度救火 員改成年度後援投手。自2000年開始，終結者不再待在牛棚以等著滅火。 In the years in between, the save became one of the few stats to profoundly change the game. After the rule took its final form in 1975, teams and players eventually figured out that the best way to accumulate saves involved starting the ninth with the bases empty and the lead three runs or less. It took over a decade for that to become obvious, but once it did, the concept of closers as firemen, rushing in to put out fires, went the way of the dodo. 在這之間的日子裡，救援點變成少數幾個深刻地改變比賽的數據，在規則於1975得到最 終的形式之後，球隊與球員終於搞懂累積救援點的最好方法是在9局壘上無人，而且領先分 數少於三分時上場。這件事實花了超過十年才變得明顯，但是一旦如此，終結者身為救火 員，趕著上來滅火的觀念，就變得過時了。 目前的救援點規則 Saves: Rule 10.20 in the Official Rule Book states: Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions: 滿足以下所有三項條件的投手得到救援點: (1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and (1)贏球球隊最後一位上場的投手 (2) He is not the winning pitcher; and (2)非勝利投手 (3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions: (3)滿足以下三條件至少一項 - (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or (a)上場時所屬球隊領先，領先分數不超過3分且至少投滿一局 - (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or (b)上場時追平分至少滿足以下三條件之一: 在壘包上或在打擊區或在下一位打者 - (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game. (c)他至少投滿三局。一場比賽不得有超過一個救援點。 The following graph shows the changes in length of saves from the introduction of the rule in 1969 through the current season. An outing of two outs or less defines a short save. Four outs or more defines a long save. The rest are one-inning saves. The graph shows each as a percentage of total saves for each season. 下面這張圖: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/SaveLength.JPG 顯示了在1969年引入此規則至今，取得救援點時所投局數長度的變化。製造少 於等於2個出局數的出賽被定義為short save。製造四個或更多出局數被視為long save。 其他都是投一局所取得的救援點。本圖以百分比表現各球季這三種定義佔總救援點數的 比例。 When the save rule initially came into effect, the pitchers lasted more than an inning to earn one. Often, around 60 percent of the saves collected saw the pitcher record four outs or more. At the other end, two-out saves stayed around 20 percent for many years, even after changing the rule to eliminate the one-out save with a big lead. Closers at the time were saved until the starter was in trouble. If that was the seventh or eighth inning, in came the fireman. If it was two outs in the ninth, in came the fireman. Starters were still expected to complete games, so they needed to show they were in trouble before a closer entered. The authors of the save rule had correctly described and rewarded the use of late relievers—pitchers who entered the fray with the game on the line. 當救援規則剛生效的時候，投手通常投超過一局以取得救援點。約百分之60的救援點 其投球紀錄顯示製造了4個或更多出局數。在另一方面，即使在改變規則以消除在大幅領先 下只製造1出局的救援點之後，製造兩個出局的救援點在許多年來依然停留在百分之20。 當時的終結者直到先發投手陷入麻煩才有救援機會。如果那發生在第七或第八局，救火隊 進場。如果是在九局兩出局，救火隊也進場。先發投手被期待能完投，所以他們在終結者 進場之前必須展現出他們有麻煩了。救援規則的擬定者正確地介紹以及獎勵了對比賽後段 RP的使用－在有風險的比賽加入戰局的投手。 The last season with a long save percentage anywhere near 60 percent was 1987. In 1988, long saves dropped to 50 percent. In 1991, one-inning saves were more common that long saves, and a year later they made up most of the saves recorded. Why did the role of the closer shift so rapidly? For that, we can blame Tony La Russa and Dennis Eckersley. 最後一個long save所佔比率接近60%的球季是1987年。在1988年，lone save掉到50%。 在1991年，一局的救援比long save較常出現，隔年它們佔了救援紀錄的大多數。為什麼 終結者的角色轉變得那麼快呢?關於這一點，我們可以怪 Tony La Russa 與 Dennis Eckersley。 During the course of the 1987 season, La Russa reinvented Dennis Eckersley, initially moving him to the pen as a long reliever before turning to him as the team's closer after one Jay Howell meltdown too many. In 1988, Eck moved into the job full-time. He appeared in 60 games, throwing just 72 2/3 innings, but earning forty five saves. Twenty one of those were one-inning saves. By 1992, thirty one of his fifty two saves were one inning. La Russa and Eckersley showed that a pitcher could collect lots of saves by pitching in relatively easy situations. According to The Book (p. 211), teams score less than three runs in an inning 93.6 percent of the time, and shutout innings are thrown 70 percent of the time. So entering the ninth with any kind of lead, the odds are well in favor of the pitcher—any pitcher—earning a save. Basically, used to start the ninth with nobody on base, any decent pitcher can wind up with a good number of saves. The stat that had originally been invented to reward firemen now earns chimney inspectors tons of money. 在1987年球季的過程中，La Russa ('86到'95任運動家教頭)重新定義了Dennis Eckersley 的使用方式，一開始把它移到牛棚做長中繼，後來因為原來的終結者Jay Howell搞砸了太 多場比賽而把他轉為隊上的終結者。在1988年，Eck全職擔任這項工作。他出賽60場，只丟 了72又2/3局，就賺到45個救援點。其中21個是投一局的救援點。到了1992年，52個救援點 中的31個是一局的。La Russa 和 Eckersley 展現了一個投手能以在較簡單的狀況下投球 下收集到很多救援點。根據The Book (p.211)，有93.6%的局數得分少於3分，有70%的局數 一分未得。所以不論以哪一種領先進入第9局，成功的機會都對投手－任何投手－賺到救援 點十分有利。基本上，在九局開局無人在壘時上場，任何不錯的投手最後都可以取得漂亮 的救援點數。這項原本用來獎勵救火員的數據現在幫煙囪檢查員賺了成噸的錢。 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1597971294/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/ The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball It's time for the save rule to evolve again, to go back to rewarding the pitchers who succeed in tough situations. On August first of this season, Alan Embree of the Oakland Athletics entered a game against Detroit. It was the top of the eighth with one out, the bases loaded, and the A's were holding a slim 3-2 lead. Embree induced a short fly out, then struck out the final batter to end the inning. He stayed in to finish the game, but if another pitcher came in to pitch the ninth, Embree would not have earned a save, even though he pitched in the more difficult situation. 該是讓救援點規則再度演進，回歸到獎勵在困境中成功的投手的時候了。在本季的8月1日 ，奧克蘭運動家隊的Alan Embree在對上底特律老虎隊的比賽中進場。當時是8局上半， 一出局滿壘，而運動家隊保持3-2的些微領先。 Embree製造了一個小飛球，然後三振掉 最後一位打者結束本局。他留下來結束掉這場比賽，但是如果另外一個投手在9局上場， Embree就賺不到這個救援點了，即使他在比較困難的情況下投球也是一樣。 How much more difficult? We can use Win Expectancy charts, also provided in The Book to measure the change in expected win percentage over a reliever's outing. When Embree entered the game, the probability of Oakland winning was 51 percent. At the end of the eighth, with the lead preserved, that jumped to 86 percent, a gain of 35 percent. Starting the ninth with the same one-run lead, the probability of Oakland winning was .825; by not scoring in the bottom of the eighth, Oakland lost some of their earlier in-game advantage. Finishing the inning without blowing the save means a victory (a win expectancy of 100 percent), so the closer in that situation improves the probability by 17.5 percent. By pitching successfully in a situation where where the probability of his team winning was relatively low—and lower than the odds the closer confronted—the pitcher working out of the jam in the eighth is the one who saved the game. He pitched well in a situation in which the slightest mistake might cost his team the lead. 所謂比較困難可以量化嗎? 我們可以用Win Expectancy 的表，這同樣來自於The Book以計算因為RP出賽的 expected win percentage。當Embree上場時，運動家隊贏球的機率是51%。在8局結束時 ，在保住領先下，這個數字躍升至86%，增加了35個百分點。以相同的一分領先於9局上場 ，運動家隊贏球的機率是82.5%；因為沒有在8局下半得分，運動家隊失掉了一些他們先前 在球賽中的優勢。結束此局而沒有B掉救援意味著贏球(win expectancy是100%)，所以在 此情況下上場的終結者增加的贏球機會是17.5%。在球隊贏球機會相對較低的情況下成功 地投球－而且低於終結者面對的數字－在第8局脫離麻煩的投手就是保住這場比賽的投手 。他在最小的錯誤都有可能使球隊付出失去領先代價的情況下投得很好。 This is exactly where the save rule needs to move. It's time to decouple the save from the person who finishes the game, and start awarding it to the reliever who does the most to increase the chance of his team winning. This should encourage managers to use their best pitchers in game situations, and still allow these pitchers to gather saves to use to negotiate contracts. What would this save rule look like? 這恰恰是救援點規則應該更動的地方。現在是停止結束比賽者與救援點的關係，開始 拿救援點來獎勵在增加贏球機會上做的最多的球員的時候了。這應該可以鼓勵教頭在 有狀況的時候用上他們手上最棒的RP，而依然能讓這些RP收集救援點以用來協商他們的 合約。那這樣的救援規則會長什麼樣子呢? The save can be awarded to a reliever for the winning team who is not the winning pitcher. The reliever raises the probability of this team winning by at least ten percent. The team does not relinquish the lead after the reliever leaves the game. The reliever with the highest probability increase receives the save. In the cases where multiple relief pitchers meet the first three criteria, and each pitcher increases the probability of winning increases by 30 percent or more, all such pitchers receive a save. (預想的救援點規則:)救援點適用於獎勵 1.贏球隊伍中不是勝利投手的RP: 2. 增加球隊贏球機率至少10%的RP。 3. 在這位RP下場後球隊沒有失掉領先。 4. 增加球隊贏球機率最高的RP 另外，如果有多位RP符合前三項標準，而各自增加球隊贏球的機率大於等於30%， 所有這樣的RP都可以拿到一個救援點。 The win expectations are trivial to figure. MLB scores all games electronically in every pressbox, and it will be easy to supply the official scorer with the information real time. In fact, the program could even take into account the quality of the competition and adjust the probabilities appropriately. (It's more difficult to face the heart of the Detroit lineup than the six through eight hitters of the Pirates, for example.) Win Expectation容易計算。 MLB所有比賽的紀錄都在運動媒體上電子化，而易於提供即時的資訊。 事實上，程式甚至可以把競爭的品質納入考慮，而適當地調整機率。 (舉例來說，面對老虎隊中心打線比面對海盜隊的6到8棒來的困難。) How would this change the awarding of saves? Starting the ninth would only yield a save to a home pitcher with a one-run lead, and a road pitcher would earn it with a two-run lead. That is of course, unless someone earlier in the game pitched out of a tough situation, such as two men on and one out. In other words, the pitcher who does the most to put out a fire is the one who gets the save. If there's no smoke, there's likely no save. And if two pitchers manage to get out of incredibly difficult situations, they both earn saves. 這會如何改變關於救援的獎勵呢? 第九局開局上場的主場投手只能在一分領先下取得救援 點，客隊投手可以在兩分領先下取得救援點。這是理所當然的，除非這場比賽更早之前 的某位投手在麻煩的狀況下投球，例如一出局兩人在壘。換句話說，滅火最力的投手就 是拿到救援點的投手。如果沒有冒煙，應該就沒有救援點。而如果有兩位投手都克服了 不可思議的困難情況，他們都得到救援點。 Blown leads should also become an official stat. Right now, saves are only blown if the pitcher entered in a save situation. Pitchers need to be charged with the negative of blowing the game as well as the positive of saving it, regardless how big a lead they blow. 失掉領先也可以變成官方數據。現在，救援點只有在RP於有救援點機會下上場才可能會 失去(也就是BS)。投手必須因為失掉領先的負面影響而被計上一筆，如同保住領先(而取 得獎勵)一樣，不論他們失去的領先有多大。 In the early days of the save, firemen came out of the pen to save the day when the team teetered on the verge of losing. Unfortunately, the gaming of the rule by compliant managers and willing closers means great pitchers often toil in easy to win situations, diminishing the value of the stat. By awarding the save to the pitcher who does the most to improve his team's chance of winning, and does it with at least the possibility of there actually being a fire, we can once again enjoy a meaningful measure of bullpen dominance. 在救援點規則出現的早期，救火隊員在球隊於輸球邊緣動搖的時候從牛棚出來，保住這一 天。不幸的是，在規則上遊戲，順應球員要求的教頭與願意當終結者的球員，也就是很好 的投手通常在容易贏球的情況下上場奮鬥，減低了這個數據的價值。以救援點獎勵增加球 隊贏球機率最多的投手，而且只獎勵在至少確實有狀況出現下上場的投手，我們才可以再 次地從這個對牛棚宰制力有意義的數據享受樂趣。 -- 怪不得你喜歡kururu~人就是這樣羨慕人家身上自己沒有的東西ㄆㄆ --

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