本译文仅供非营利用途，转载请标明原作者: David Pinto http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6567 The Big Picture The Big Picture系列文(2007年8月8日) Evolving the Save Rule by David Pinto Back in 1973, in the days when Sparky Lyle and Tug McGraw toiled in the late innings for the New York teams, Bruce Stark of the New York Daily News drew a series of caricatures of the Yankees and Mets. (Here's the Tom Seaver drawing from the series.) When he drew the closers, Stark depicted Sparky and Tug as firemen, a title that stuck to all relievers. That term eventually disappeared from the lexicon of relief pitching—in 2001, the Sporting News changed the name of their award for relievers from Fireman of the Year to put out the fire. 回到1973年，在Sparky Lyle 与 Tug McGraw 分别为NYY与NYM在比赛的後 段局数辛苦奋斗的日子，New York Daily News的漫画家Bruce Stark画了一系列有关这两 队的漫画。(现在这些漫画是由Tom Seaver接手。) 当他画终结者的时候，Stark把Sparky 与Tug画成救火队员，一个标在所有後援投手(RP)身上的名词。 这个词最後从有关RP的辞 汇消失－在2001年，Sporting News杂志改变了他们那个颁给RP奖项的名称，从年度救火 员改成年度後援投手。自2000年开始，终结者不再待在牛棚以等着灭火。 In the years in between, the save became one of the few stats to profoundly change the game. After the rule took its final form in 1975, teams and players eventually figured out that the best way to accumulate saves involved starting the ninth with the bases empty and the lead three runs or less. It took over a decade for that to become obvious, but once it did, the concept of closers as firemen, rushing in to put out fires, went the way of the dodo. 在这之间的日子里，救援点变成少数几个深刻地改变比赛的数据，在规则於1975得到最 终的形式之後，球队与球员终於搞懂累积救援点的最好方法是在9局垒上无人，而且领先分 数少於三分时上场。这件事实花了超过十年才变得明显，但是一旦如此，终结者身为救火 员，赶着上来灭火的观念，就变得过时了。 目前的救援点规则 Saves: Rule 10.20 in the Official Rule Book states: Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions: 满足以下所有三项条件的投手得到救援点: (1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and (1)赢球球队最後一位上场的投手 (2) He is not the winning pitcher; and (2)非胜利投手 (3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions: (3)满足以下三条件至少一项 - (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or (a)上场时所属球队领先，领先分数不超过3分且至少投满一局 - (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or (b)上场时追平分至少满足以下三条件之一: 在垒包上或在打击区或在下一位打者 - (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game. (c)他至少投满三局。一场比赛不得有超过一个救援点。 The following graph shows the changes in length of saves from the introduction of the rule in 1969 through the current season. An outing of two outs or less defines a short save. Four outs or more defines a long save. The rest are one-inning saves. The graph shows each as a percentage of total saves for each season. 下面这张图: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/SaveLength.JPG 显示了在1969年引入此规则至今，取得救援点时所投局数长度的变化。制造少 於等於2个出局数的出赛被定义为short save。制造四个或更多出局数被视为long save。 其他都是投一局所取得的救援点。本图以百分比表现各球季这三种定义占总救援点数的 比例。 When the save rule initially came into effect, the pitchers lasted more than an inning to earn one. Often, around 60 percent of the saves collected saw the pitcher record four outs or more. At the other end, two-out saves stayed around 20 percent for many years, even after changing the rule to eliminate the one-out save with a big lead. Closers at the time were saved until the starter was in trouble. If that was the seventh or eighth inning, in came the fireman. If it was two outs in the ninth, in came the fireman. Starters were still expected to complete games, so they needed to show they were in trouble before a closer entered. The authors of the save rule had correctly described and rewarded the use of late relievers—pitchers who entered the fray with the game on the line. 当救援规则刚生效的时候，投手通常投超过一局以取得救援点。约百分之60的救援点 其投球纪录显示制造了4个或更多出局数。在另一方面，即使在改变规则以消除在大幅领先 下只制造1出局的救援点之後，制造两个出局的救援点在许多年来依然停留在百分之20。 当时的终结者直到先发投手陷入麻烦才有救援机会。如果那发生在第七或第八局，救火队 进场。如果是在九局两出局，救火队也进场。先发投手被期待能完投，所以他们在终结者 进场之前必须展现出他们有麻烦了。救援规则的拟定者正确地介绍以及奖励了对比赛後段 RP的使用－在有风险的比赛加入战局的投手。 The last season with a long save percentage anywhere near 60 percent was 1987. In 1988, long saves dropped to 50 percent. In 1991, one-inning saves were more common that long saves, and a year later they made up most of the saves recorded. Why did the role of the closer shift so rapidly? For that, we can blame Tony La Russa and Dennis Eckersley. 最後一个long save所占比率接近60%的球季是1987年。在1988年，lone save掉到50%。 在1991年，一局的救援比long save较常出现，隔年它们占了救援纪录的大多数。为什麽 终结者的角色转变得那麽快呢?关於这一点，我们可以怪 Tony La Russa 与 Dennis Eckersley。 During the course of the 1987 season, La Russa reinvented Dennis Eckersley, initially moving him to the pen as a long reliever before turning to him as the team's closer after one Jay Howell meltdown too many. In 1988, Eck moved into the job full-time. He appeared in 60 games, throwing just 72 2/3 innings, but earning forty five saves. Twenty one of those were one-inning saves. By 1992, thirty one of his fifty two saves were one inning. La Russa and Eckersley showed that a pitcher could collect lots of saves by pitching in relatively easy situations. According to The Book (p. 211), teams score less than three runs in an inning 93.6 percent of the time, and shutout innings are thrown 70 percent of the time. So entering the ninth with any kind of lead, the odds are well in favor of the pitcher—any pitcher—earning a save. Basically, used to start the ninth with nobody on base, any decent pitcher can wind up with a good number of saves. The stat that had originally been invented to reward firemen now earns chimney inspectors tons of money. 在1987年球季的过程中，La Russa ('86到'95任运动家教头)重新定义了Dennis Eckersley 的使用方式，一开始把它移到牛棚做长中继，後来因为原来的终结者Jay Howell搞砸了太 多场比赛而把他转为队上的终结者。在1988年，Eck全职担任这项工作。他出赛60场，只丢 了72又2/3局，就赚到45个救援点。其中21个是投一局的救援点。到了1992年，52个救援点 中的31个是一局的。La Russa 和 Eckersley 展现了一个投手能以在较简单的状况下投球 下收集到很多救援点。根据The Book (p.211)，有93.6%的局数得分少於3分，有70%的局数 一分未得。所以不论以哪一种领先进入第9局，成功的机会都对投手－任何投手－赚到救援 点十分有利。基本上，在九局开局无人在垒时上场，任何不错的投手最後都可以取得漂亮 的救援点数。这项原本用来奖励救火员的数据现在帮烟囱检查员赚了成吨的钱。 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1597971294/baseballprospect/ref=nosim/ The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball It's time for the save rule to evolve again, to go back to rewarding the pitchers who succeed in tough situations. On August first of this season, Alan Embree of the Oakland Athletics entered a game against Detroit. It was the top of the eighth with one out, the bases loaded, and the A's were holding a slim 3-2 lead. Embree induced a short fly out, then struck out the final batter to end the inning. He stayed in to finish the game, but if another pitcher came in to pitch the ninth, Embree would not have earned a save, even though he pitched in the more difficult situation. 该是让救援点规则再度演进，回归到奖励在困境中成功的投手的时候了。在本季的8月1日 ，奥克兰运动家队的Alan Embree在对上底特律老虎队的比赛中进场。当时是8局上半， 一出局满垒，而运动家队保持3-2的些微领先。 Embree制造了一个小飞球，然後三振掉 最後一位打者结束本局。他留下来结束掉这场比赛，但是如果另外一个投手在9局上场， Embree就赚不到这个救援点了，即使他在比较困难的情况下投球也是一样。 How much more difficult? We can use Win Expectancy charts, also provided in The Book to measure the change in expected win percentage over a reliever's outing. When Embree entered the game, the probability of Oakland winning was 51 percent. At the end of the eighth, with the lead preserved, that jumped to 86 percent, a gain of 35 percent. Starting the ninth with the same one-run lead, the probability of Oakland winning was .825; by not scoring in the bottom of the eighth, Oakland lost some of their earlier in-game advantage. Finishing the inning without blowing the save means a victory (a win expectancy of 100 percent), so the closer in that situation improves the probability by 17.5 percent. By pitching successfully in a situation where where the probability of his team winning was relatively low—and lower than the odds the closer confronted—the pitcher working out of the jam in the eighth is the one who saved the game. He pitched well in a situation in which the slightest mistake might cost his team the lead. 所谓比较困难可以量化吗? 我们可以用Win Expectancy 的表，这同样来自於The Book以计算因为RP出赛的 expected win percentage。当Embree上场时，运动家队赢球的机率是51%。在8局结束时 ，在保住领先下，这个数字跃升至86%，增加了35个百分点。以相同的一分领先於9局上场 ，运动家队赢球的机率是82.5%；因为没有在8局下半得分，运动家队失掉了一些他们先前 在球赛中的优势。结束此局而没有B掉救援意味着赢球(win expectancy是100%)，所以在 此情况下上场的终结者增加的赢球机会是17.5%。在球队赢球机会相对较低的情况下成功 地投球－而且低於终结者面对的数字－在第8局脱离麻烦的投手就是保住这场比赛的投手 。他在最小的错误都有可能使球队付出失去领先代价的情况下投得很好。 This is exactly where the save rule needs to move. It's time to decouple the save from the person who finishes the game, and start awarding it to the reliever who does the most to increase the chance of his team winning. This should encourage managers to use their best pitchers in game situations, and still allow these pitchers to gather saves to use to negotiate contracts. What would this save rule look like? 这恰恰是救援点规则应该更动的地方。现在是停止结束比赛者与救援点的关系，开始 拿救援点来奖励在增加赢球机会上做的最多的球员的时候了。这应该可以鼓励教头在 有状况的时候用上他们手上最棒的RP，而依然能让这些RP收集救援点以用来协商他们的 合约。那这样的救援规则会长什麽样子呢? The save can be awarded to a reliever for the winning team who is not the winning pitcher. The reliever raises the probability of this team winning by at least ten percent. The team does not relinquish the lead after the reliever leaves the game. The reliever with the highest probability increase receives the save. In the cases where multiple relief pitchers meet the first three criteria, and each pitcher increases the probability of winning increases by 30 percent or more, all such pitchers receive a save. (预想的救援点规则:)救援点适用於奖励 1.赢球队伍中不是胜利投手的RP: 2. 增加球队赢球机率至少10%的RP。 3. 在这位RP下场後球队没有失掉领先。 4. 增加球队赢球机率最高的RP 另外，如果有多位RP符合前三项标准，而各自增加球队赢球的机率大於等於30%， 所有这样的RP都可以拿到一个救援点。 The win expectations are trivial to figure. MLB scores all games electronically in every pressbox, and it will be easy to supply the official scorer with the information real time. In fact, the program could even take into account the quality of the competition and adjust the probabilities appropriately. (It's more difficult to face the heart of the Detroit lineup than the six through eight hitters of the Pirates, for example.) Win Expectation容易计算。 MLB所有比赛的纪录都在运动媒体上电子化，而易於提供即时的资讯。 事实上，程式甚至可以把竞争的品质纳入考虑，而适当地调整机率。 (举例来说，面对老虎队中心打线比面对海盗队的6到8棒来的困难。) How would this change the awarding of saves? Starting the ninth would only yield a save to a home pitcher with a one-run lead, and a road pitcher would earn it with a two-run lead. That is of course, unless someone earlier in the game pitched out of a tough situation, such as two men on and one out. In other words, the pitcher who does the most to put out a fire is the one who gets the save. If there's no smoke, there's likely no save. And if two pitchers manage to get out of incredibly difficult situations, they both earn saves. 这会如何改变关於救援的奖励呢? 第九局开局上场的主场投手只能在一分领先下取得救援 点，客队投手可以在两分领先下取得救援点。这是理所当然的，除非这场比赛更早之前 的某位投手在麻烦的状况下投球，例如一出局两人在垒。换句话说，灭火最力的投手就 是拿到救援点的投手。如果没有冒烟，应该就没有救援点。而如果有两位投手都克服了 不可思议的困难情况，他们都得到救援点。 Blown leads should also become an official stat. Right now, saves are only blown if the pitcher entered in a save situation. Pitchers need to be charged with the negative of blowing the game as well as the positive of saving it, regardless how big a lead they blow. 失掉领先也可以变成官方数据。现在，救援点只有在RP於有救援点机会下上场才可能会 失去(也就是BS)。投手必须因为失掉领先的负面影响而被计上一笔，如同保住领先(而取 得奖励)一样，不论他们失去的领先有多大。 In the early days of the save, firemen came out of the pen to save the day when the team teetered on the verge of losing. Unfortunately, the gaming of the rule by compliant managers and willing closers means great pitchers often toil in easy to win situations, diminishing the value of the stat. By awarding the save to the pitcher who does the most to improve his team's chance of winning, and does it with at least the possibility of there actually being a fire, we can once again enjoy a meaningful measure of bullpen dominance. 在救援点规则出现的早期，救火队员在球队於输球边缘动摇的时候从牛棚出来，保住这一 天。不幸的是，在规则上游戏，顺应球员要求的教头与愿意当终结者的球员，也就是很好 的投手通常在容易赢球的情况下上场奋斗，减低了这个数据的价值。以救援点奖励增加球 队赢球机率最多的投手，而且只奖励在至少确实有状况出现下上场的投手，我们才可以再 次地从这个对牛棚宰制力有意义的数据享受乐趣。 -- 怪不得你喜欢kururu~人就是这样羡慕人家身上自己没有的东西ㄆㄆ --

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