http://0rz.tw/c145E Raiding or Raising the East by David Pinto Professional Japanese baseball faces an uncertain future. With the success of Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, the World Baseball Classic win, and the hoopla surrounding Daisuke Matsuzaka, Major League Baseball sees Japan as a new pool of talent for North American teams. Through the posting system and soon through signing talent out of school, the one-way flow of stars from the Eastern to the Western Hemisphere could drain talent from the Far East. Unless talent--star talent--actually flows both ways across the Pacific, the Japanese major leagues may slide into outright dependence on Major League Baseball instead of becoming a major league equal. 日本職業棒球面對了一個不確定的未來。隨著鈴木一朗、松井秀喜的成功、世界棒球經 典賽的勝利、圍繞著松阪大輔的喧鬧，大聯盟現在把日本看作北美球隊的人才庫。隨著 入札金制度，還有很快就要隨著簽下剛畢業的新秀，從東半球單方向輸出球星到西半球 的潮流，可能會榨乾遠東地區的天份。除非天賦—球星天賦—能橫跨太平洋雙向交流， 不然日本職棒大聯盟可能會變成單方面依賴美國大聯盟，而不是成為一個平等的聯盟。 Earlier this year, Robert Whiting wrote a four-part series on Japanese baseball. The first part of the series he titled, "Is the MLB destroying Japan's national pastime?" The question requires serious consideration, as the majors leagues have a history of turning independent leagues into vassals. In his Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James goes to great lengths to educate readers about the independence of minor league teams in the early days of baseball. These organizations were professional leagues that were in the business of winning championships, not developing talent for the majors. Over time, and especially after the supreme court granted Major League Baseball an anti-trust exemption, the majors used their economic clout to force small town teams into the service of big city clubs. 今年稍早，Robert Whiting寫了一篇關於日本棒球的四部文章。第一個部分他命名為「 大聯盟正在摧毀日本的國球嗎？」。這個問題需要嚴肅地考慮，因為大聯盟有把獨立聯 盟變成其奴僕的歷史。在Bill James的歷史棒球文摘中，他花了相當大的篇幅教育讀者 ，早些日子小聯盟球隊的獨立性。這些組織都是職業聯盟，是各自在爭取冠軍的事業， 不是替大聯盟培養天份。隨著時間過去，特別是在最高法院允許大聯盟例外於反托拉斯 法外之後，大聯盟就用著他們的經濟實力，強迫小鎮棒球隊替大城市的球團服務。 Perhaps even worse was the outright destruction of the Negro Leagues. The owners of affiliated minor league teams at least were supplied players and financial compensation for their loss of autonomy. The Negro Leagues were simply driven out of business, as the big leagues simply plucked players away with no compensation. Major League Baseball could have paid Negro League teams for the players they signed. They could have entered into working agreements with Negro League clubs to make them part of the farm system. But as usual, Major League Baseball was only interested in acquiring inexpensive talent. 也許更糟的是單方面摧毀了黑人聯盟。附屬小聯盟球隊的老闆至少還被供應了球員和財 務補償，作為他們失去獨立性的補償。黑人聯盟根本就是被趕出了這行，因為大聯盟直 接把球員從那邊拽拉出來，沒有給予補償。大聯盟可以為他們簽約的球員給予黑人聯盟 球隊金錢。他們可以和黑人聯盟球團協調工作協定，使他們成為農場的一部分。但是一 如往常，大聯盟就只是對取得便宜的天份有興趣而已。 Are these the fates facing Japanese teams? It doesn't need to be so. Dr. Daniel Drezner is an associate professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and also a huge baseball fan. In discussing the WBC with Dan, the professor expressed the thought that the tournament represented a huge foreign policy success for the United States. At the time of the announcement of the Classic, Dr. Drezner noted n a Newsday op-ed that the loss of the Olympics wasn't a ad deal for baseball, because by taking control of the world game, MLB gets to use its "soft power" to promote the name on its own terms: 這些是日本球隊面臨的命運嗎？其實不必這樣。Daniel Drezner博士是塔夫斯大學弗萊 徹法律和外交學院，有關國際政治的助理教授，也是一個狂熱的棒球迷。跟 Dan討論世 界棒球經典賽的時候，這個教授抒發了他對於這個巡迴賽，代表了美國外交政策重大成 功的想法。在公佈經典賽的時候， Drezner博士在今日新聞報專欄版發表評論，他說在 奧運輸球對棒球來說不是個廣告合約，因為藉由控制世界上的比賽，大聯盟可以用它的 「軟性實力」，以自己的地位推廣這些名詞。 If the globalization of baseball advances the national interest, which venue works best? The Baseball Classic maybe much smaller than the Olympic Games, but its participants suggest the power and scope of the organization. Teams from six continents comprising roughly a third of the world’s population and half of the global economy are represented. The Pacific Rim, currently the most dynamic region of the global economy, has numerous participants. 如果棒球的全球化提升了國家利益，在哪種場合會最好？棒球經典賽也許比奧運小的多 ，但是它的參賽者提示了實力和組織的廣度。從六個大陸來的球隊大約包含了世界三分 之一的人口，還有代表了一半的世界經濟。環太平洋區現在是世界經濟最有活動力的區 域，有為數眾多的參賽者。 If managed and promoted properly, the Classic has the potential to take on the attributes of soccer’s World Cup–an event that inspires much more global passion than the Olympics. A recent IOC report observed that more than 110 countries have national baseball federations. The potential for future growth is there. At worst, the Classic will generate as much global interest as the world competitions for rugby and cricket. 如果有適當的管理和宣傳，棒球經典賽有潛力成為像是足球世界盃的地位—一個可以比 奧運激勵更多全球熱情的活動。最近一份國際奧林匹克委員會的報告觀察到，超過一百 一十個國家有各自的棒球聯盟。未來成長的潛力就在那兒。最糟的情況，棒球經典賽也 會帶來，像英式橄欖球和板球的世界競賽那樣的全球興趣。 And what better way to promote the WBC than to ensure a high level of competition across the world, starting in the Pacific Rim? The goal of Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) should be to create a Japanese league on par with the best professional teams in the AL and NL. But that means both sides need to show a willingness to make structural and cultural changes, with MLB using its "soft power" to bring about changes in Japan. 有什麼方法要宣傳世界棒球經典賽，能超出過保證高水準的世界競賽，還要從環太平洋 區開始呢？美國職棒大聯盟和日本職業棒球的目標應該是創造一個日本職業棒球聯盟， 和美聯、國聯最好的職業球隊一樣標準。但是這代表了兩邊都要展現結構性和文化上改 變的意願，就由大聯盟使用它的「軟性實力」替日本帶來改變。 Maybe the toughest thing to change is the notion that whatever benefits major league owners benefits baseball. In order to make this game a worldwide phenomenon, MLB should be willing to take short term losses for long term gains. For example, scouts are in the Far East looking to sign the best players from that region to bring into the US minor league system. The Japanese should be encouraged to do the same in the US system. And that means abolishing the draft, so all amateurs are free agents. As last week's article argued, the draft no longer maintains parity in the majors; helping Asian teams acquire good talent can be used as a reason to dissolve the institution. Yes, the Japanese will lose potential stars to US teams, but by drawing from a larger pool of players, the quality of the league should remain good, and over time improve, especially as the world population increases and more people play baseball. 也許最難改變的是，只要對大聯盟老闆有利，就是對棒球有利的觀念。為了要讓這種運 動變成一個全球熱潮，大聯盟要承受短期損失，換取長期獲利。舉例來說，遠東地區的 球探尋找要簽下那區域最好的球員，把他們帶到美國小聯盟的系統裡。而這意謂了廢除 選秀制度，所以全部的業餘球員都是自由球員。就像上禮拜的文章討論的，大聯盟選秀 不再維持均一價；幫助亞洲球隊取得有天份的球員，可以被當成溶解這個機構的理由。 是的，日本會損失有潛力的明星到美國，但是藉由從一個比較大的球員庫裡找尋，聯盟 的品質應該能維持很好，並且隨著時間改善，尤其是當世界人口增加，更多人開始打棒 球後。 In general, MLB needs to encourage a much more free flow of players between North America and the NPB. Rather than the current posting system, direct trades between the leagues would mean that Japanese teams get compensated without losing talent. Japanese teams should compete for American free agents, bringing our stars across the Pacific to boost interest in their teams. Imagine the publicity if someone like Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yomiuri Giants. MLB attendance boomed after players started freely moving between North American teams; that dynamism might help Japan, too. 一般說來，大聯盟需要鼓勵球員更自由地在北美和日本間流動。不像現在的入札金制度 ，聯盟間的直接交易代表日本球隊可以得到補償，而不會損失天份。日本球隊應該競逐 美國自由球員，帶我們的明星跨越太平洋，提高球隊的興趣。想像一下，像是Alex Rodriguez 這樣的球員跟讀賣巨人隊簽約的廣告。大聯盟的觀眾數在球員在北美球隊間 自由流動後急速增加；這股活動力應該也能幫助日本。 There are two structural problems to correct before any of this can take place, however. First, there's a shortage of professional general managers, and second, there's no minor league system. The second point is why Japanese players wait nine years to become free agents. They usually come out of high school straight onto the major league roster. They don't receive the years of development time you see in North America, so they become free agents at about the same age as their MLB brethren. In the last fifteen years, MLB created four new franchises and four new minor league systems, so there is plenty of expertise available to help NPB in this regard. With a similar minor league system, major league rules covering arbitration and free agency could apply to Japan as well. 然而，在這些任何事發生之前，有兩個結構性的問題要先解決。首先，職業球隊總經理 的短缺，第二，沒有小聯盟系統。第二點是日本球員需要九年才能變成自由球員的原因 。他們常常自高中畢業後直接就加入職業聯盟。他們沒有接受你在北美看到的好幾年培 育時間，所以他們跟大聯盟的兄弟們差不多同齡變成自由球員。在最近的十五年，大聯 盟創造了四支新的球團和四個新的小聯盟系統，所以有很多專家可以在這方面幫助日本 職業棒球聯盟。有了類似的小聯盟系統，包括仲裁和自由球員之類的大聯盟規則也就可 以在日本適用。 The first point is the easiest to address, thanks to a glut of managerial talent. As I noted after the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference: 第一點是比較容易闡釋的，要感謝大量的管理人才。就像我在麻省理工學院史隆運動商 業會議後所說的。 The conference left me hopeful for the future of the sports industry. Given the attendance, there are a very large number of young business people looking to make their mark in the world of sports. Unfortunately for them, there are only a limited number of jobs. With supply outstripping demand, the sports industry gets to hire the most extraordinary applicants and pay them ordinary wages (at least as entry level employees). I hope this means we're in for an era of business innovation among all sports. 這個會議讓我對於運動事業的未來充滿希望。根據參加人數，有很多年輕的商業人才想 要在運動世界留下標記。不幸地對他們來說，工作的數量是有限的。因為供給大過需求 ，運動事業可以雇用最傑出的求職者，卻付給他們一般的工資(至少在新鮮人的時候)。 我希望這代表了我們處於一個所有運動都有商業創新的年代。 All of this requires that NPB drops the desire to (as Whiting puts it) "limit the number of 'gaijin suketto' (foreign helpers)." Here's where MLB needs to wield its "soft power" with some precision--MLB must act in a way that convinces NPB that they are considered equals. 這全都需要日本職業棒球聯盟放棄「限制洋將數量」的渴望 (以Whiting的話來說)。這 是大聯盟需要運用它的「軟性實力」求取精確之處—大聯盟必須以說服日本職棒它們都 是平等的方式運作。 However, Japanese baseball must also be made aware that without changes to their game, the North American teams will continue to draw off talent to the point of leaving no players worth posting, and a game in a state of decline. Little League is actually a great example of this use of "soft power." The prestige of the Little League World Series forces countries to stick to the rules enacted in Williamsport rather than risk losing a berth in the tournament. 然而，日本棒球也必須了解，如果不對比賽作些改變，北美球隊會繼續掏空天份，直到 沒有球員值得付入札金為止，還有持續衰退的比賽。少年棒球聯盟是使用「軟性實力」 的最好例證。少年棒球聯盟世界大賽的聲望，強迫國家遵守威廉波特使用的規則，而不 會冒險在巡迴賽中失去席位。 As Major League Baseball embarks on a global growth strategy, it should be aware that it has the power to ruin as well as enhance foreign baseball leagues. With Japan winning the World Baseball Classic and supplying a steady stream of stars to North America, the NPB is ripe for integration into the North American system. A successful working agreement that preserves the independence of the teams while improving the level of play would lay a foundation for spreading the game to the rest of the world --imagine major league-level play in the EU, Africa, and China. By helping Japan develop into a equal among major leagues, MLB can show they will not unfairly dominate the sport. Therein lies the path to global success. 當美國職棒大聯盟著手於全球發展策略時，它必須了解它有這個力量去摧毀，也能增強 外國棒球聯盟。隨著日本贏得世界棒球經典賽，供應了穩定的明星流動到北美，日本職 業棒球聯盟已經成熟到足以整合進北美的系統了。一個成功的工作協定可以維持球隊的 獨立性，而改善比賽的水準可以為傳播這種運動到世界各地奠下基礎—想像大聯盟水準 的比賽在歐盟、非洲和中國進行。藉由幫助日本發展成一個平等的棒球聯盟，美國職棒 大聯盟可以展現它們不會不公平地主宰這項運動，進而邁向全球成功的途徑。 有錯請指正。 附加一句：本文不代表本人立場。 --

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