http://0rz.tw/c145E Raiding or Raising the East by David Pinto Professional Japanese baseball faces an uncertain future. With the success of Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, the World Baseball Classic win, and the hoopla surrounding Daisuke Matsuzaka, Major League Baseball sees Japan as a new pool of talent for North American teams. Through the posting system and soon through signing talent out of school, the one-way flow of stars from the Eastern to the Western Hemisphere could drain talent from the Far East. Unless talent--star talent--actually flows both ways across the Pacific, the Japanese major leagues may slide into outright dependence on Major League Baseball instead of becoming a major league equal. 日本职业棒球面对了一个不确定的未来。随着铃木一朗、松井秀喜的成功、世界棒球经 典赛的胜利、围绕着松阪大辅的喧闹，大联盟现在把日本看作北美球队的人才库。随着 入札金制度，还有很快就要随着签下刚毕业的新秀，从东半球单方向输出球星到西半球 的潮流，可能会榨乾远东地区的天份。除非天赋—球星天赋—能横跨太平洋双向交流， 不然日本职棒大联盟可能会变成单方面依赖美国大联盟，而不是成为一个平等的联盟。 Earlier this year, Robert Whiting wrote a four-part series on Japanese baseball. The first part of the series he titled, "Is the MLB destroying Japan's national pastime?" The question requires serious consideration, as the majors leagues have a history of turning independent leagues into vassals. In his Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James goes to great lengths to educate readers about the independence of minor league teams in the early days of baseball. These organizations were professional leagues that were in the business of winning championships, not developing talent for the majors. Over time, and especially after the supreme court granted Major League Baseball an anti-trust exemption, the majors used their economic clout to force small town teams into the service of big city clubs. 今年稍早，Robert Whiting写了一篇关於日本棒球的四部文章。第一个部分他命名为「 大联盟正在摧毁日本的国球吗？」。这个问题需要严肃地考虑，因为大联盟有把独立联 盟变成其奴仆的历史。在Bill James的历史棒球文摘中，他花了相当大的篇幅教育读者 ，早些日子小联盟球队的独立性。这些组织都是职业联盟，是各自在争取冠军的事业， 不是替大联盟培养天份。随着时间过去，特别是在最高法院允许大联盟例外於反托拉斯 法外之後，大联盟就用着他们的经济实力，强迫小镇棒球队替大城市的球团服务。 Perhaps even worse was the outright destruction of the Negro Leagues. The owners of affiliated minor league teams at least were supplied players and financial compensation for their loss of autonomy. The Negro Leagues were simply driven out of business, as the big leagues simply plucked players away with no compensation. Major League Baseball could have paid Negro League teams for the players they signed. They could have entered into working agreements with Negro League clubs to make them part of the farm system. But as usual, Major League Baseball was only interested in acquiring inexpensive talent. 也许更糟的是单方面摧毁了黑人联盟。附属小联盟球队的老板至少还被供应了球员和财 务补偿，作为他们失去独立性的补偿。黑人联盟根本就是被赶出了这行，因为大联盟直 接把球员从那边拽拉出来，没有给予补偿。大联盟可以为他们签约的球员给予黑人联盟 球队金钱。他们可以和黑人联盟球团协调工作协定，使他们成为农场的一部分。但是一 如往常，大联盟就只是对取得便宜的天份有兴趣而已。 Are these the fates facing Japanese teams? It doesn't need to be so. Dr. Daniel Drezner is an associate professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and also a huge baseball fan. In discussing the WBC with Dan, the professor expressed the thought that the tournament represented a huge foreign policy success for the United States. At the time of the announcement of the Classic, Dr. Drezner noted n a Newsday op-ed that the loss of the Olympics wasn't a ad deal for baseball, because by taking control of the world game, MLB gets to use its "soft power" to promote the name on its own terms: 这些是日本球队面临的命运吗？其实不必这样。Daniel Drezner博士是塔夫斯大学弗莱 彻法律和外交学院，有关国际政治的助理教授，也是一个狂热的棒球迷。跟 Dan讨论世 界棒球经典赛的时候，这个教授抒发了他对於这个巡回赛，代表了美国外交政策重大成 功的想法。在公布经典赛的时候， Drezner博士在今日新闻报专栏版发表评论，他说在 奥运输球对棒球来说不是个广告合约，因为藉由控制世界上的比赛，大联盟可以用它的 「软性实力」，以自己的地位推广这些名词。 If the globalization of baseball advances the national interest, which venue works best? The Baseball Classic maybe much smaller than the Olympic Games, but its participants suggest the power and scope of the organization. Teams from six continents comprising roughly a third of the world’s population and half of the global economy are represented. The Pacific Rim, currently the most dynamic region of the global economy, has numerous participants. 如果棒球的全球化提升了国家利益，在哪种场合会最好？棒球经典赛也许比奥运小的多 ，但是它的参赛者提示了实力和组织的广度。从六个大陆来的球队大约包含了世界三分 之一的人口，还有代表了一半的世界经济。环太平洋区现在是世界经济最有活动力的区 域，有为数众多的参赛者。 If managed and promoted properly, the Classic has the potential to take on the attributes of soccer’s World Cup–an event that inspires much more global passion than the Olympics. A recent IOC report observed that more than 110 countries have national baseball federations. The potential for future growth is there. At worst, the Classic will generate as much global interest as the world competitions for rugby and cricket. 如果有适当的管理和宣传，棒球经典赛有潜力成为像是足球世界盃的地位—一个可以比 奥运激励更多全球热情的活动。最近一份国际奥林匹克委员会的报告观察到，超过一百 一十个国家有各自的棒球联盟。未来成长的潜力就在那儿。最糟的情况，棒球经典赛也 会带来，像英式橄榄球和板球的世界竞赛那样的全球兴趣。 And what better way to promote the WBC than to ensure a high level of competition across the world, starting in the Pacific Rim? The goal of Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) should be to create a Japanese league on par with the best professional teams in the AL and NL. But that means both sides need to show a willingness to make structural and cultural changes, with MLB using its "soft power" to bring about changes in Japan. 有什麽方法要宣传世界棒球经典赛，能超出过保证高水准的世界竞赛，还要从环太平洋 区开始呢？美国职棒大联盟和日本职业棒球的目标应该是创造一个日本职业棒球联盟， 和美联、国联最好的职业球队一样标准。但是这代表了两边都要展现结构性和文化上改 变的意愿，就由大联盟使用它的「软性实力」替日本带来改变。 Maybe the toughest thing to change is the notion that whatever benefits major league owners benefits baseball. In order to make this game a worldwide phenomenon, MLB should be willing to take short term losses for long term gains. For example, scouts are in the Far East looking to sign the best players from that region to bring into the US minor league system. The Japanese should be encouraged to do the same in the US system. And that means abolishing the draft, so all amateurs are free agents. As last week's article argued, the draft no longer maintains parity in the majors; helping Asian teams acquire good talent can be used as a reason to dissolve the institution. Yes, the Japanese will lose potential stars to US teams, but by drawing from a larger pool of players, the quality of the league should remain good, and over time improve, especially as the world population increases and more people play baseball. 也许最难改变的是，只要对大联盟老板有利，就是对棒球有利的观念。为了要让这种运 动变成一个全球热潮，大联盟要承受短期损失，换取长期获利。举例来说，远东地区的 球探寻找要签下那区域最好的球员，把他们带到美国小联盟的系统里。而这意谓了废除 选秀制度，所以全部的业余球员都是自由球员。就像上礼拜的文章讨论的，大联盟选秀 不再维持均一价；帮助亚洲球队取得有天份的球员，可以被当成溶解这个机构的理由。 是的，日本会损失有潜力的明星到美国，但是藉由从一个比较大的球员库里找寻，联盟 的品质应该能维持很好，并且随着时间改善，尤其是当世界人口增加，更多人开始打棒 球後。 In general, MLB needs to encourage a much more free flow of players between North America and the NPB. Rather than the current posting system, direct trades between the leagues would mean that Japanese teams get compensated without losing talent. Japanese teams should compete for American free agents, bringing our stars across the Pacific to boost interest in their teams. Imagine the publicity if someone like Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yomiuri Giants. MLB attendance boomed after players started freely moving between North American teams; that dynamism might help Japan, too. 一般说来，大联盟需要鼓励球员更自由地在北美和日本间流动。不像现在的入札金制度 ，联盟间的直接交易代表日本球队可以得到补偿，而不会损失天份。日本球队应该竞逐 美国自由球员，带我们的明星跨越太平洋，提高球队的兴趣。想像一下，像是Alex Rodriguez 这样的球员跟读卖巨人队签约的广告。大联盟的观众数在球员在北美球队间 自由流动後急速增加；这股活动力应该也能帮助日本。 There are two structural problems to correct before any of this can take place, however. First, there's a shortage of professional general managers, and second, there's no minor league system. The second point is why Japanese players wait nine years to become free agents. They usually come out of high school straight onto the major league roster. They don't receive the years of development time you see in North America, so they become free agents at about the same age as their MLB brethren. In the last fifteen years, MLB created four new franchises and four new minor league systems, so there is plenty of expertise available to help NPB in this regard. With a similar minor league system, major league rules covering arbitration and free agency could apply to Japan as well. 然而，在这些任何事发生之前，有两个结构性的问题要先解决。首先，职业球队总经理 的短缺，第二，没有小联盟系统。第二点是日本球员需要九年才能变成自由球员的原因 。他们常常自高中毕业後直接就加入职业联盟。他们没有接受你在北美看到的好几年培 育时间，所以他们跟大联盟的兄弟们差不多同龄变成自由球员。在最近的十五年，大联 盟创造了四支新的球团和四个新的小联盟系统，所以有很多专家可以在这方面帮助日本 职业棒球联盟。有了类似的小联盟系统，包括仲裁和自由球员之类的大联盟规则也就可 以在日本适用。 The first point is the easiest to address, thanks to a glut of managerial talent. As I noted after the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference: 第一点是比较容易阐释的，要感谢大量的管理人才。就像我在麻省理工学院史隆运动商 业会议後所说的。 The conference left me hopeful for the future of the sports industry. Given the attendance, there are a very large number of young business people looking to make their mark in the world of sports. Unfortunately for them, there are only a limited number of jobs. With supply outstripping demand, the sports industry gets to hire the most extraordinary applicants and pay them ordinary wages (at least as entry level employees). I hope this means we're in for an era of business innovation among all sports. 这个会议让我对於运动事业的未来充满希望。根据参加人数，有很多年轻的商业人才想 要在运动世界留下标记。不幸地对他们来说，工作的数量是有限的。因为供给大过需求 ，运动事业可以雇用最杰出的求职者，却付给他们一般的工资(至少在新鲜人的时候)。 我希望这代表了我们处於一个所有运动都有商业创新的年代。 All of this requires that NPB drops the desire to (as Whiting puts it) "limit the number of 'gaijin suketto' (foreign helpers)." Here's where MLB needs to wield its "soft power" with some precision--MLB must act in a way that convinces NPB that they are considered equals. 这全都需要日本职业棒球联盟放弃「限制洋将数量」的渴望 (以Whiting的话来说)。这 是大联盟需要运用它的「软性实力」求取精确之处—大联盟必须以说服日本职棒它们都 是平等的方式运作。 However, Japanese baseball must also be made aware that without changes to their game, the North American teams will continue to draw off talent to the point of leaving no players worth posting, and a game in a state of decline. Little League is actually a great example of this use of "soft power." The prestige of the Little League World Series forces countries to stick to the rules enacted in Williamsport rather than risk losing a berth in the tournament. 然而，日本棒球也必须了解，如果不对比赛作些改变，北美球队会继续掏空天份，直到 没有球员值得付入札金为止，还有持续衰退的比赛。少年棒球联盟是使用「软性实力」 的最好例证。少年棒球联盟世界大赛的声望，强迫国家遵守威廉波特使用的规则，而不 会冒险在巡回赛中失去席位。 As Major League Baseball embarks on a global growth strategy, it should be aware that it has the power to ruin as well as enhance foreign baseball leagues. With Japan winning the World Baseball Classic and supplying a steady stream of stars to North America, the NPB is ripe for integration into the North American system. A successful working agreement that preserves the independence of the teams while improving the level of play would lay a foundation for spreading the game to the rest of the world --imagine major league-level play in the EU, Africa, and China. By helping Japan develop into a equal among major leagues, MLB can show they will not unfairly dominate the sport. Therein lies the path to global success. 当美国职棒大联盟着手於全球发展策略时，它必须了解它有这个力量去摧毁，也能增强 外国棒球联盟。随着日本赢得世界棒球经典赛，供应了稳定的明星流动到北美，日本职 业棒球联盟已经成熟到足以整合进北美的系统了。一个成功的工作协定可以维持球队的 独立性，而改善比赛的水准可以为传播这种运动到世界各地奠下基础—想像大联盟水准 的比赛在欧盟、非洲和中国进行。藉由帮助日本发展成一个平等的棒球联盟，美国职棒 大联盟可以展现它们不会不公平地主宰这项运动，进而迈向全球成功的途径。 有错请指正。 附加一句：本文不代表本人立场。 --

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