原文出處: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-robinson-cano/ Anatomy of a player: Robinson Cano 解剖一位球員: Robinson Cano by Josh Kalk May 06, 2008 While the Yankees pulled themselves over the .500 mark with a win on Sunday, their second baseman Robinson Cano is off to a dismal start at the plate. Cano is hitting, and I use that term very lightly, .154/.214/.256. That is the line you would expect from a pitcher, not a second baseman who has hit no worse than .297 in his three years with the team. What is going on here? Is this just a horrible streak of bad luck for Cano or will he struggle along all season? 　　週日當洋基隊的勝率拉回到了五成的勝率時，而他們的二壘手Robinson Cano 上到本 壘板首次的打擊也不再是軟弱無力。但是Cano現在的打擊，用一個字眼來形容就是非常的 輕微，他的打擊率/上壘率/長打率只有.154/.214/.256。看到這數字你會以為是個一位投 手的成績，而不是一個球隊中連續三年打擊率都不曾低過.297的二壘手。為什麼他的打擊 會變成這樣? 對Cano而言，這倒底是只是持續著糟透了的壞運氣，還是他整季都會打得這 麼辛苦呢? (註: 有一些人認為不需擔心Cano的是，他的LD%為17%並不比前幾季差多少，意即他的球 仍然打得很結實，但BABIP卻很低約為0.16左右，當然一般認為打者不像投手是無法控制 BABIP的，但據統計打者的BABIP大約為LD%+0.12, 所以Cano合理的BABIP應該為0.28~0.29 左右，沒理由這麼低的。但我們再看這篇文章的分析，再作推論吧!) When something like this happens to a batter, his groundball/line drive/pop-up rates are a good first place to look. Cano's groundball percentage is just a tad lower than his numbers from previous seasons at 49 percent and his line drive percentage is right in line at 17.6. But his infield pop-ups are an alarming 14.7 percent, compared to last year's 4.8 percent. It appears that Cano is getting under a lot of balls and hitting easy pop-ups as a result. With that in mind, let's take a look at some PITCHf/x data to see where Cano might be having trouble. 有可能這位打者打擊時發生了些改變，他的滾地球/平飛球/小飛球的比率觀察是我們 一開始最能夠觀察他是否產生了變化的好所在。Cano的滾地球是稍稍低於前一季的49%， 平飛球則與前一季相同為17.6%，但內野小飛球相較前一季的4.8%，卻高達是驚人的14.7% 。這顯示很多球擊球點在球的下方，結果打出很多不營養的小飛球。瞭解這點後，我們再 從Cano打擊時一些記錄球路位移(PITCHf/x)的資料，來看看Cano打擊時那裡發生了問題。 Here's how Cano has handled fastballs in 2007 and 2008 底下的圖是Cano 2007年和2008年處理快速球的情況 (請見原文) In 2007, Cano feasted on fastballs, especially fastballs that were away from him (remember, Cano bats left-handed so balls that have a negative x are on the outside part of the plate). This is very unusual for left-handed batters, who tend to hit better on balls that are middle in; most seem to prefer the ball down in the zone. Cano had great success going the other way with these balls away from him even if they ended up being only singles. Also, while Cano did swing at a lot of balls up in the zone, he tended to foul most of these off or swing and miss. 2007年球季，Cano很會打快速球，特別遠離他的外角快速球 (在圖示中要記得，Cano 是左打者，所以有負的橫向位移(x)的是表示外角球)。這對於左打者而言是非常不尋常的 ，一般左打者都對本壘板中間的快速球打得比較好；大部份的左打者還偏好去打好球帶下 方的低球。Cano針對外角球打出反方向的球揮擊得非常成功，即便是只是打出一壘安打而 已。而且，雖然Cano打了很多在好球帶上方的球，但是他通常是將這些球打出界外或揮棒 落空。 In 2008, Cano is not doing much with the balls on the outer half of the plate. He has very few hits to the opposite field, which seems to indicate that he is pressing and trying to pull this pitch instead of going the other way with it. Notice how few balls he has had to hit on the inner part of the plate this year. This makes sense because if he is trying to pull everything, pitchers should be working him away. As for the balls up in the zone, Cano is actually making more contact this year than last year but many of those have gone for the weak pop-ups we noted before. If he continues to pop this pitch up, the only remedy is for him to stop swinging at those pitches. 2008年球季，Cano則對外角快速球處理就沒有上一季這麼好。他很少有反方向的安打 ，這似乎表示他拼命設法去拉擊投進來的球，而不是順著勢將球推向反方向。注意他今年 可以打的內角球相當的少。這是可以理解的，因為假如他每一球都設法去拉打的話，投手 當然就一直賞他外角球。至於好球帶上方的球，今年他揮擊碰觸到球的情況比去年還多， 但是不同以往的很多碰觸到的球都變成了軟弱的小飛球。假如他持續將這些高球打成小飛 球的話，對他唯一能夠改進的方法就是停止去揮擊這些高球。 These issues become even more pronounced when we look at how he has done against change-ups this year. 這個問題當我們看他今年打變速球時，可以看得更是明顯。 Cano simply can't lay off low and away change-ups from right-handed pitching. While he is making contact with these pitches, he is often rolling over and weakly grounding out. The change-up from a right-handed pitcher moves away from a left-handed batter and it appears that Cano is getting fooled often by these pitches and swinging even when the ball is far outside the strike zone. It also points to the possibility that Cano isn't picking up the ball quickly and thinks fastball only to swing and realize the pitch was a change-up away from him. Again, because he is getting himself out on this pitch, he is seeing a pretty hefty diet of off-speed pitches away. Cano needs to lay off this pitch if he is to get better pitches to hit. Cano對右投手投出低的外角變速球沒辦法忍住不要揮擊。當他揮擊碰到這些球時，經 常是失去平衡打成軟弱的滾地球出局。右投手投出移向左打者外角的變速球，這樣的球路 經常讓Cano受騙，即便球已經遠遠掉到好球帶的外面Cano還是忍不住去揮擊。這也表示可 能Cano無法很快地辦認出這種變化球，只是用打快速球的方式去揮擊，之後才知道這是個 外角的變速球。再一次，因為這種球路可以讓他出局，所以他一直看到相當多這種球路的 外角變化球。假如Cano在打擊時可以看到更好揮擊的球路的話，他必須忍住放掉這些變速 球。 While it is extremely unlikely that Cano is going to keep hitting this far below the Mendoza line, it definitely appears that something significant has changed in his approach this season. First and foremost, Cano simply has to be more selective at the plate. His problem isn't swinging and missing at pitches but putting way too many balls in play when the pitch is a foot outside the zone. When he becomes more selective, pitchers will have to come in to him and then he can effectively pull the ball the way it appears he wants so desperately to do. Unless he can make these corrections, he is going to have a long season. 即使Cano的打擊會持續遠低於.200的Mendoza的水準線之下的可能性相當的低，但還是 確實顯示了他本季打擊的方式需要作些重大的改變。首要的是，Cano在打擊時就是必須作 更多的選球。他的問題不是對投來的球揮棒落空，而是把很多跑到好球帶的外面的壞球打 進場內。如果他的打擊變得更有選擇性時，投手就必須投內角球，然後他就可以用他目前 極度想要使用的拉打的方式有效地將球揮擊出去。除非他可以做這些修正，否則要走出這 個低潮恐怕還有得等。 Josh Kalk is a physics and math geek who can also be found blogging at http://www.baseball.bornbybits.com/blog/blog.html. He enjoys good conversations about baseball and can be reached at [email protected]. --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.132.198.21 ※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 220.132.198.21 (05/10 02:13)