原文出处: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-robinson-cano/ Anatomy of a player: Robinson Cano 解剖一位球员: Robinson Cano by Josh Kalk May 06, 2008 While the Yankees pulled themselves over the .500 mark with a win on Sunday, their second baseman Robinson Cano is off to a dismal start at the plate. Cano is hitting, and I use that term very lightly, .154/.214/.256. That is the line you would expect from a pitcher, not a second baseman who has hit no worse than .297 in his three years with the team. What is going on here? Is this just a horrible streak of bad luck for Cano or will he struggle along all season? 　　周日当洋基队的胜率拉回到了五成的胜率时，而他们的二垒手Robinson Cano 上到本 垒板首次的打击也不再是软弱无力。但是Cano现在的打击，用一个字眼来形容就是非常的 轻微，他的打击率/上垒率/长打率只有.154/.214/.256。看到这数字你会以为是个一位投 手的成绩，而不是一个球队中连续三年打击率都不曾低过.297的二垒手。为什麽他的打击 会变成这样? 对Cano而言，这倒底是只是持续着糟透了的坏运气，还是他整季都会打得这 麽辛苦呢? (注: 有一些人认为不需担心Cano的是，他的LD%为17%并不比前几季差多少，意即他的球 仍然打得很结实，但BABIP却很低约为0.16左右，当然一般认为打者不像投手是无法控制 BABIP的，但据统计打者的BABIP大约为LD%+0.12, 所以Cano合理的BABIP应该为0.28~0.29 左右，没理由这麽低的。但我们再看这篇文章的分析，再作推论吧!) When something like this happens to a batter, his groundball/line drive/pop-up rates are a good first place to look. Cano's groundball percentage is just a tad lower than his numbers from previous seasons at 49 percent and his line drive percentage is right in line at 17.6. But his infield pop-ups are an alarming 14.7 percent, compared to last year's 4.8 percent. It appears that Cano is getting under a lot of balls and hitting easy pop-ups as a result. With that in mind, let's take a look at some PITCHf/x data to see where Cano might be having trouble. 有可能这位打者打击时发生了些改变，他的滚地球/平飞球/小飞球的比率观察是我们 一开始最能够观察他是否产生了变化的好所在。Cano的滚地球是稍稍低於前一季的49%， 平飞球则与前一季相同为17.6%，但内野小飞球相较前一季的4.8%，却高达是惊人的14.7% 。这显示很多球击球点在球的下方，结果打出很多不营养的小飞球。了解这点後，我们再 从Cano打击时一些记录球路位移(PITCHf/x)的资料，来看看Cano打击时那里发生了问题。 Here's how Cano has handled fastballs in 2007 and 2008 底下的图是Cano 2007年和2008年处理快速球的情况 (请见原文) In 2007, Cano feasted on fastballs, especially fastballs that were away from him (remember, Cano bats left-handed so balls that have a negative x are on the outside part of the plate). This is very unusual for left-handed batters, who tend to hit better on balls that are middle in; most seem to prefer the ball down in the zone. Cano had great success going the other way with these balls away from him even if they ended up being only singles. Also, while Cano did swing at a lot of balls up in the zone, he tended to foul most of these off or swing and miss. 2007年球季，Cano很会打快速球，特别远离他的外角快速球 (在图示中要记得，Cano 是左打者，所以有负的横向位移(x)的是表示外角球)。这对於左打者而言是非常不寻常的 ，一般左打者都对本垒板中间的快速球打得比较好；大部份的左打者还偏好去打好球带下 方的低球。Cano针对外角球打出反方向的球挥击得非常成功，即便是只是打出一垒安打而 已。而且，虽然Cano打了很多在好球带上方的球，但是他通常是将这些球打出界外或挥棒 落空。 In 2008, Cano is not doing much with the balls on the outer half of the plate. He has very few hits to the opposite field, which seems to indicate that he is pressing and trying to pull this pitch instead of going the other way with it. Notice how few balls he has had to hit on the inner part of the plate this year. This makes sense because if he is trying to pull everything, pitchers should be working him away. As for the balls up in the zone, Cano is actually making more contact this year than last year but many of those have gone for the weak pop-ups we noted before. If he continues to pop this pitch up, the only remedy is for him to stop swinging at those pitches. 2008年球季，Cano则对外角快速球处理就没有上一季这麽好。他很少有反方向的安打 ，这似乎表示他拼命设法去拉击投进来的球，而不是顺着势将球推向反方向。注意他今年 可以打的内角球相当的少。这是可以理解的，因为假如他每一球都设法去拉打的话，投手 当然就一直赏他外角球。至於好球带上方的球，今年他挥击碰触到球的情况比去年还多， 但是不同以往的很多碰触到的球都变成了软弱的小飞球。假如他持续将这些高球打成小飞 球的话，对他唯一能够改进的方法就是停止去挥击这些高球。 These issues become even more pronounced when we look at how he has done against change-ups this year. 这个问题当我们看他今年打变速球时，可以看得更是明显。 Cano simply can't lay off low and away change-ups from right-handed pitching. While he is making contact with these pitches, he is often rolling over and weakly grounding out. The change-up from a right-handed pitcher moves away from a left-handed batter and it appears that Cano is getting fooled often by these pitches and swinging even when the ball is far outside the strike zone. It also points to the possibility that Cano isn't picking up the ball quickly and thinks fastball only to swing and realize the pitch was a change-up away from him. Again, because he is getting himself out on this pitch, he is seeing a pretty hefty diet of off-speed pitches away. Cano needs to lay off this pitch if he is to get better pitches to hit. Cano对右投手投出低的外角变速球没办法忍住不要挥击。当他挥击碰到这些球时，经 常是失去平衡打成软弱的滚地球出局。右投手投出移向左打者外角的变速球，这样的球路 经常让Cano受骗，即便球已经远远掉到好球带的外面Cano还是忍不住去挥击。这也表示可 能Cano无法很快地办认出这种变化球，只是用打快速球的方式去挥击，之後才知道这是个 外角的变速球。再一次，因为这种球路可以让他出局，所以他一直看到相当多这种球路的 外角变化球。假如Cano在打击时可以看到更好挥击的球路的话，他必须忍住放掉这些变速 球。 While it is extremely unlikely that Cano is going to keep hitting this far below the Mendoza line, it definitely appears that something significant has changed in his approach this season. First and foremost, Cano simply has to be more selective at the plate. His problem isn't swinging and missing at pitches but putting way too many balls in play when the pitch is a foot outside the zone. When he becomes more selective, pitchers will have to come in to him and then he can effectively pull the ball the way it appears he wants so desperately to do. Unless he can make these corrections, he is going to have a long season. 即使Cano的打击会持续远低於.200的Mendoza的水准线之下的可能性相当的低，但还是 确实显示了他本季打击的方式需要作些重大的改变。首要的是，Cano在打击时就是必须作 更多的选球。他的问题不是对投来的球挥棒落空，而是把很多跑到好球带的外面的坏球打 进场内。如果他的打击变得更有选择性时，投手就必须投内角球，然後他就可以用他目前 极度想要使用的拉打的方式有效地将球挥击出去。除非他可以做这些修正，否则要走出这 个低潮恐怕还有得等。 Josh Kalk is a physics and math geek who can also be found blogging at http://www.baseball.bornbybits.com/blog/blog.html. He enjoys good conversations about baseball and can be reached at [email protected]. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.132.198.21 ※ 编辑: leddy 来自: 220.132.198.21 (05/10 02:13)