http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/designated_hitter/ By David Appelman : While there's usually much chatter about clutch batting and whether it exists : or doesn't exist, it seems as though clutch pitching doesn't get nearly as : much attention as it should. If you believe batters step it up a notch when : the game is on the line, it'd be only natural that pitchers also know when : the game is on the line and would try a little harder in those situations, : too. 當人們大量討論"關鍵一擊"能力是否存在的同時，"關鍵一投"所受到的關注簡直少得可憐 如果你相信當比賽進入緊張時刻，打者的能力能夠有所提升，那很自然地，當投手遇到 危機狀況的時候，他們也應該知道自己面臨關鍵時刻，同時會努力讓自己投球更加刁鑽。 : There are lots of stats to measure how "lucky" a pitcher is, such as batting : average on balls in play and left on base percentage. There's also ERA : estimators such as FIP, which take into account walks, strikeouts, and home : runs and then estimate what a pitcher's ERA should have been. But the problem : is, none of these stats take into account how important a situation is in a : game and that's where Leverage Index comes in to play. 有很多項數據指出投手有多"幸運"，例如BABIP(球被擊入場內的打擊率)跟LOB%(殘壘率)。 也有人對ERA進行修正，把四壞、三振以及保送列入考慮的FIP，最後可以計算出投手所應 該擁有的ERA。但問題是，這些數據都沒有考慮到投手在場上會面臨到的狀況，而這就是 為什麼我們要利用Leverage Index這項數據。 : Leverage Index measures the importance of a particular situation based on the : game state (inning, score, runners, outs) of a game. It ranges from 0 to : 10.9, with 1 being an average situation and 10.9 being the most important : situation possible. Leverage Index(*註一)把賽場上特定狀況的重要性依照比賽狀態(局數、分數、跑者、 出局數)加以評估。Leverage Index的值域從0到10.9，1所代表的意義是一個普通的狀況， 而10.9代表的則是棒球比賽中所能出現的最危急情形。 : So let's look at which players have had the most and least success in : high-leverage situations (LI of 2 or more) the past six years by looking at : the difference in FIP between high-leverage situations and all other : situations. I chose FIP because ERA doesn't really work for starting pitchers : when looking at high-leverage situations and FIP is a better measure of a : pitcher's overall skill. To qualify for this study, pitchers must have : pitched a minimum of 50 high-leverage innings. 就讓我們來看看是哪些投手在過去六年中，在危機狀況(LI>2)下依然能夠獲得最大 (或最小)的成功。我所評估的方法是去計算{(其他狀況下的FIP)- (劇場狀況下的FIP)} 這邊我使用FIP的原因是，ERA與先發投手開劇場的次數並不完全相關(編按：想像有投手 可以滿壘、無人出局，然後一分未失，ERA=0，但顯然LI>2)。而FIP則較能從更全面的角 度去檢視一個投手。為了讓這項統計更有意義，出現在名單上的投手必須投滿50局劇場， 也就是50局的LI>2。 The "Clutch" Starters: Name (other LI)(high LI) Dif Brad Penny 4.02 2.78 1.24 Jake Peavy 3.67 2.44 1.23 Chris Carpenter 3.72 2.75 0.97 Jeff Suppan 4.81 3.92 0.88 Jason Marquis 5.21 4.47 0.74 Dontrelle Willis 4.13 3.41 0.73 Jason Johnson 4.69 4.03 0.66 Victor Zambrano 5.30 4.64 0.66 Mike Maroth 5.13 4.48 0.65 Matt Morris 4.36 3.72 0.64 : Topping the list is Brad Penny, followed by 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy : and then 2005 Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. These three pitchers over the : past five years have done exceptionally well in high-leverage situations. The : real difference maker for Peavy is that he's allowed just a single home run : in over 69 high-leverage innings. 名列前茅的是道奇投手Brad Penny，07國聯賽揚獎得主Jake Peavy以及05國聯賽揚Chris Carpenter。這三位投手過去五年在危機處理上都相當傑出。事實上，Peavy在他所遇到 的69局危機局中只被打了一支全壘打。(編按：偉哉，Peavy!) The "Un-Clutch" Starters: Name (other LI)(high LI) Dif Odalis Perez 4.17 5.76 -1.59 Jeff Weaver 4.43 5.93 -1.50 Kyle Lohse 4.66 5.86 -1.19 John Lackey 3.79 4.87 -1.08 Jason Schmidt 3.41 4.42 -1.01 Roy Oswalt 3.34 4.27 -0.93 Jose Contreras 4.46 5.37 -0.90 Jamie Moyer 4.73 5.56 -0.83 Tim Wakefield 4.61 5.39 -0.78 Johan Santana 3.17 3.94 -0.77 : I can't say I'm incredibly surprised to see Jeff Weaver near the top of this : list, but it's definitely interesting to see the likes of John Lackey, Roy : Oswalt, and Johan Santana as "un-clutch." In high-leverage situations Santana : has a slightly increased BB/9 and HR/9, Oswalt's K/9 drops nearly 2 points : with a slight increase in BB/9, and Lackey's K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all head : about half a point in the wrong direction. 我對於Jeff Weaver出現在"開劇場必爆"的名單前面並不感到特別訝異，反倒是其他人，像 是John Lackey、Roy Oswalt跟Johan Santana，引起了我的好奇。在危急狀況下，Santana 的BB/9跟HR/9有些微提高，Oswalt的K/9下降了2個百分點，BB/9略升。而Lackey的K/9、 BB/9跟HR/9全都往錯誤的方向跑了0.5個百分點。 Time to check in on the relievers: 順便來看看後援投手吧!! The "Clutch" Relievers: Name (low LI) (high LI) Dif Joaquin Benoit 4.60 3.62 0.97 Jason Frasor 4.15 3.22 0.93 Francisco Rodriguez 3.21 2.29 0.93 Jonathan Papelbon 3.06 2.20 0.86 Ryan Madson 4.49 3.78 0.71 J.C. Romero 4.51 3.96 0.55 Chad Bradford 3.67 3.13 0.54 Kyle Farnsworth 4.11 3.60 0.51 Eric Gagne 2.22 1.73 0.49 Todd Jones 4.08 3.60 0.49 : I must admit Eric Gagne's FIP in high-leverage situations is rather : ridiculous; however, I should note this does not include his 2008 stats. In : high-leverage situations, Jon Papelbon strikes out over 1 more batter per 9 : innings and walks 1 less per 9 while K-Rod lowers his HR/9 by a considerable : amount. 我必須承認剛爺在危機狀況下的FIP就現在看來有點荒謬。不過這項統計並沒有把08年數據 加進去考量。在危機狀況下，紅襪守護神Papelbon每9局多K了1個人次，每9局少保送了1個 人次，另外天使隊K-ROD在緊張時刻也大幅降低他的HR/9。 The "Un-Clutch" Relievers: Name (low LI) (high LI) Dif Jason Isringhausen 2.97 4.78 -1.80 Justin Speier 3.97 5.56 -1.59 Keith Foulke 3.49 5.03 -1.54 Guillermo Mota 3.70 4.98 -1.28 Jesus Colome 4.65 5.76 -1.11 Jorge Julio 4.40 5.39 -0.99 Fernando Rodney 3.83 4.80 -0.98 Alan Embree 3.50 4.44 -0.95 Billy Wagner 2.60 3.52 -0.93 Cliff Politte 4.36 5.21 -0.85 : It's a little surprising to see that Jason Isringhausen who has 212 saves : since 2002 is not that great when it counts. In high-leverage situations he : walks 3 more batters per 9 innings. Wow. And Keith Foulke appears to have a : home run problem in those tight spots along with Billy Wagner. Jason Isringhausen，這位從2002年以後拿下212個救援點的投手，竟然沒有想像中那麼好 ，讓人有點訝異。遇到危機時，他平均每9局多保送3個人次。哇!至於另外一個後援投 手Foulke，與Wagner一樣，似乎在緊繃狀況下太容易被打全壘打了。 : It's always fun to look back and see who has been clutch, but are the same : pitchers clutch every year? Unfortunately not. There's pretty much no : correlation from year-to-year when it comes to how pitchers do in : high-leverage situations compared to how they do in non-high-leverage : situations. 回顧比賽的時候，我們都會欣賞那些在關鍵時刻有所發揮的選手。但是難道每年的危機處 理專家都是同樣一群投手嗎?非常不幸地，並不是。當我們要比較每一年投手在危機時刻與 普通狀況表現的時候，發現並不存在明顯的相關性。 : So it looks like the same rule that applies to batters also applies to : pitchers: you can tell who has been clutch, but you can't predict who will be : clutch. 這樣看來，同樣的規則可以適用在打者跟投手身上：你可以說誰誰誰過去在關鍵時刻 有所表現，但是你沒有辦法預測未來誰能夠挺身而出。 *註一:LI(姑且稱做危機指標)，是一項評比棒球場上情況有多危急的數據，由Tom Tango 所提出。參考的是局數、雙方得分、壘上的跑者以及出局數。正常狀況下的LI=1， 60%的情況LI都小於1，只有10%的狀況LI會大於1。 更多資訊請看: http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml#18 --

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