http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/designated_hitter/ By David Appelman : While there's usually much chatter about clutch batting and whether it exists : or doesn't exist, it seems as though clutch pitching doesn't get nearly as : much attention as it should. If you believe batters step it up a notch when : the game is on the line, it'd be only natural that pitchers also know when : the game is on the line and would try a little harder in those situations, : too. 当人们大量讨论"关键一击"能力是否存在的同时，"关键一投"所受到的关注简直少得可怜 如果你相信当比赛进入紧张时刻，打者的能力能够有所提升，那很自然地，当投手遇到 危机状况的时候，他们也应该知道自己面临关键时刻，同时会努力让自己投球更加刁钻。 : There are lots of stats to measure how "lucky" a pitcher is, such as batting : average on balls in play and left on base percentage. There's also ERA : estimators such as FIP, which take into account walks, strikeouts, and home : runs and then estimate what a pitcher's ERA should have been. But the problem : is, none of these stats take into account how important a situation is in a : game and that's where Leverage Index comes in to play. 有很多项数据指出投手有多"幸运"，例如BABIP(球被击入场内的打击率)跟LOB%(残垒率)。 也有人对ERA进行修正，把四坏、三振以及保送列入考虑的FIP，最後可以计算出投手所应 该拥有的ERA。但问题是，这些数据都没有考虑到投手在场上会面临到的状况，而这就是 为什麽我们要利用Leverage Index这项数据。 : Leverage Index measures the importance of a particular situation based on the : game state (inning, score, runners, outs) of a game. It ranges from 0 to : 10.9, with 1 being an average situation and 10.9 being the most important : situation possible. Leverage Index(*注一)把赛场上特定状况的重要性依照比赛状态(局数、分数、跑者、 出局数)加以评估。Leverage Index的值域从0到10.9，1所代表的意义是一个普通的状况， 而10.9代表的则是棒球比赛中所能出现的最危急情形。 : So let's look at which players have had the most and least success in : high-leverage situations (LI of 2 or more) the past six years by looking at : the difference in FIP between high-leverage situations and all other : situations. I chose FIP because ERA doesn't really work for starting pitchers : when looking at high-leverage situations and FIP is a better measure of a : pitcher's overall skill. To qualify for this study, pitchers must have : pitched a minimum of 50 high-leverage innings. 就让我们来看看是哪些投手在过去六年中，在危机状况(LI>2)下依然能够获得最大 (或最小)的成功。我所评估的方法是去计算{(其他状况下的FIP)- (剧场状况下的FIP)} 这边我使用FIP的原因是，ERA与先发投手开剧场的次数并不完全相关(编按：想像有投手 可以满垒、无人出局，然後一分未失，ERA=0，但显然LI>2)。而FIP则较能从更全面的角 度去检视一个投手。为了让这项统计更有意义，出现在名单上的投手必须投满50局剧场， 也就是50局的LI>2。 The "Clutch" Starters: Name (other LI)(high LI) Dif Brad Penny 4.02 2.78 1.24 Jake Peavy 3.67 2.44 1.23 Chris Carpenter 3.72 2.75 0.97 Jeff Suppan 4.81 3.92 0.88 Jason Marquis 5.21 4.47 0.74 Dontrelle Willis 4.13 3.41 0.73 Jason Johnson 4.69 4.03 0.66 Victor Zambrano 5.30 4.64 0.66 Mike Maroth 5.13 4.48 0.65 Matt Morris 4.36 3.72 0.64 : Topping the list is Brad Penny, followed by 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy : and then 2005 Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. These three pitchers over the : past five years have done exceptionally well in high-leverage situations. The : real difference maker for Peavy is that he's allowed just a single home run : in over 69 high-leverage innings. 名列前茅的是道奇投手Brad Penny，07国联赛扬奖得主Jake Peavy以及05国联赛扬Chris Carpenter。这三位投手过去五年在危机处理上都相当杰出。事实上，Peavy在他所遇到 的69局危机局中只被打了一支全垒打。(编按：伟哉，Peavy!) The "Un-Clutch" Starters: Name (other LI)(high LI) Dif Odalis Perez 4.17 5.76 -1.59 Jeff Weaver 4.43 5.93 -1.50 Kyle Lohse 4.66 5.86 -1.19 John Lackey 3.79 4.87 -1.08 Jason Schmidt 3.41 4.42 -1.01 Roy Oswalt 3.34 4.27 -0.93 Jose Contreras 4.46 5.37 -0.90 Jamie Moyer 4.73 5.56 -0.83 Tim Wakefield 4.61 5.39 -0.78 Johan Santana 3.17 3.94 -0.77 : I can't say I'm incredibly surprised to see Jeff Weaver near the top of this : list, but it's definitely interesting to see the likes of John Lackey, Roy : Oswalt, and Johan Santana as "un-clutch." In high-leverage situations Santana : has a slightly increased BB/9 and HR/9, Oswalt's K/9 drops nearly 2 points : with a slight increase in BB/9, and Lackey's K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 all head : about half a point in the wrong direction. 我对於Jeff Weaver出现在"开剧场必爆"的名单前面并不感到特别讶异，反倒是其他人，像 是John Lackey、Roy Oswalt跟Johan Santana，引起了我的好奇。在危急状况下，Santana 的BB/9跟HR/9有些微提高，Oswalt的K/9下降了2个百分点，BB/9略升。而Lackey的K/9、 BB/9跟HR/9全都往错误的方向跑了0.5个百分点。 Time to check in on the relievers: 顺便来看看後援投手吧!! The "Clutch" Relievers: Name (low LI) (high LI) Dif Joaquin Benoit 4.60 3.62 0.97 Jason Frasor 4.15 3.22 0.93 Francisco Rodriguez 3.21 2.29 0.93 Jonathan Papelbon 3.06 2.20 0.86 Ryan Madson 4.49 3.78 0.71 J.C. Romero 4.51 3.96 0.55 Chad Bradford 3.67 3.13 0.54 Kyle Farnsworth 4.11 3.60 0.51 Eric Gagne 2.22 1.73 0.49 Todd Jones 4.08 3.60 0.49 : I must admit Eric Gagne's FIP in high-leverage situations is rather : ridiculous; however, I should note this does not include his 2008 stats. In : high-leverage situations, Jon Papelbon strikes out over 1 more batter per 9 : innings and walks 1 less per 9 while K-Rod lowers his HR/9 by a considerable : amount. 我必须承认刚爷在危机状况下的FIP就现在看来有点荒谬。不过这项统计并没有把08年数据 加进去考量。在危机状况下，红袜守护神Papelbon每9局多K了1个人次，每9局少保送了1个 人次，另外天使队K-ROD在紧张时刻也大幅降低他的HR/9。 The "Un-Clutch" Relievers: Name (low LI) (high LI) Dif Jason Isringhausen 2.97 4.78 -1.80 Justin Speier 3.97 5.56 -1.59 Keith Foulke 3.49 5.03 -1.54 Guillermo Mota 3.70 4.98 -1.28 Jesus Colome 4.65 5.76 -1.11 Jorge Julio 4.40 5.39 -0.99 Fernando Rodney 3.83 4.80 -0.98 Alan Embree 3.50 4.44 -0.95 Billy Wagner 2.60 3.52 -0.93 Cliff Politte 4.36 5.21 -0.85 : It's a little surprising to see that Jason Isringhausen who has 212 saves : since 2002 is not that great when it counts. In high-leverage situations he : walks 3 more batters per 9 innings. Wow. And Keith Foulke appears to have a : home run problem in those tight spots along with Billy Wagner. Jason Isringhausen，这位从2002年以後拿下212个救援点的投手，竟然没有想像中那麽好 ，让人有点讶异。遇到危机时，他平均每9局多保送3个人次。哇!至於另外一个後援投 手Foulke，与Wagner一样，似乎在紧绷状况下太容易被打全垒打了。 : It's always fun to look back and see who has been clutch, but are the same : pitchers clutch every year? Unfortunately not. There's pretty much no : correlation from year-to-year when it comes to how pitchers do in : high-leverage situations compared to how they do in non-high-leverage : situations. 回顾比赛的时候，我们都会欣赏那些在关键时刻有所发挥的选手。但是难道每年的危机处 理专家都是同样一群投手吗?非常不幸地，并不是。当我们要比较每一年投手在危机时刻与 普通状况表现的时候，发现并不存在明显的相关性。 : So it looks like the same rule that applies to batters also applies to : pitchers: you can tell who has been clutch, but you can't predict who will be : clutch. 这样看来，同样的规则可以适用在打者跟投手身上：你可以说谁谁谁过去在关键时刻 有所表现，但是你没有办法预测未来谁能够挺身而出。 *注一:LI(姑且称做危机指标)，是一项评比棒球场上情况有多危急的数据，由Tom Tango 所提出。参考的是局数、双方得分、垒上的跑者以及出局数。正常状况下的LI=1， 60%的情况LI都小於1，只有10%的状况LI会大於1。 更多资讯请看: http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml#18 --

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