by John Sickels on Apr 25, 2008 5:04 PM EDT http://www.minorleagueball.com/ : Lots of people have been asking me about Phil Hughes, so here goes. First the : brief career rundown. 很多人都向我詢問Phil Hughes,所以我用這篇文章來討論他。先來看看他的生涯成績。 : Hughes was drafted in the first round in 2004, 23rd overall, out of high : school in Santa Ana, California. He threw five shutout innings in a : three-game trial in the Gulf Coast League. Scouts liked his projectability : and his command of his low-90s fastball, along with a strong slider and : changeup. I gave him a Grade B in the '05 book, worried about reports : regarding a sore elbow. Hughes是在2004年選秀會上第一輪23順位被選走，當時他是加州Santa Ana的高中投手。 他在Gulf Coast League的三場試驗性質比賽中投出5局無失分的表現。不少球探喜歡 Hughes的發展性，同時也對他對於low-90的速球控制感到滿意。而Hughes除了這些之外， 還有強力滑球跟變速球。考慮到有些球探報告中提到手肘痠痛的問題，我在05年給他 B的評價。 : Shoulder trouble limited him to 16 starts in 2005, but they went well, : including a 1.97 ERA and a 72/16 K/BB in 69 innings in the Sally League, and : a 21/4 K/BB in 18 innings in the Florida State League. He improved his : curveball dramatically and began using it more than the slider, to reduce : stress on his arm. I raised his grade to B+ in the '06 book, but was worried : about injury risk. 他在05年受制於肩膀問題只先發出賽了16場，但依然表現精彩: 防禦率1.97，在Sally League出賽69局交出 72/16 K/BB，在Florida State League出賽18局投出21/4 K/BB。 在這個階段，Hughes的曲球戲劇性的產生大幅度進步，也讓他使用曲球的比例開始超過 滑球。這降低了他手臂所承受的負擔。在06年我把他的評價提升到B+，但仍然憂心於受傷 的風險。 : Hughes threw 146 innings in 2006, split between five starts for Tampa and 21 : for Double-A Trenton, where he went 10-3, 2.25 with a 138/32 K/BB in 116 : innings. His velocity spiked into the 93-95 range, hitting 96 at times. The : curveball also got better. Scouts were somewhat concerned about his erratic : changeup, but overall it was hard to knock his performance. I gave him a : straight Grade A, now considering that his injury risk was no higher than any : other pitcher his age. Hughes在06年總共在小聯盟投了146局，其中5場替A+ Tampa先發，另外21場則是2A的 Trenton，在那裏他在116局裡10勝3敗、防禦率2.25，138/22 的K/BB。他的速球落在93 到95MPH之間，有時候甚至可以投到96MPH，曲球也進步了。球探有點擔心他不穩的變速球 但是那根本無損於Hughes的表現。我當時直接給他A的評價，並且認為他受傷的風險不會比 同年齡的其他投手來的高。 : As you know, Hughes did have some durability troubles last year, Thankfully : it was his hamstrings and a bum ankle that were the problems, not his elbow : or shoulder. He held his own in major league action, very commendable given : his age and the pressure of the New York environment, but his velocity was : down at times, and again this year in the early going. In his major league : career thus far, Hughes is 5-6, 5.14 with a 69/39 K/BB in 91 innings. He's : been hit hard in April, and I don't like his 11/10 K/BB ratio in 2008. 就如同你們知道的，Hughes去年在持續出場投球上碰到一些困難。幸好經過檢查發現是 腿肌腱跟踝部的問題，而不是手肘或肩膀的舊傷。考慮到他當時的年紀(20歲)，以及在 紐約出賽的環境壓力，他去年的表現其實相當不錯。不過他球速有時候會下滑，同樣的狀 況也發生在今年剛開季。看看他目前的大聯盟成績，5勝6敗、91局ERA 5.14 69/39K/BB。 他在4月裡被打得很慘，同時我也不喜歡他目前11/10 K/BB的比例。 : So what is wrong with Hughes? I get panicked email from Yankees fans, asking : if he was overhyped. No, he wasn't overhyped. Yes, there is a problem with : Hughes right now. He's 21, practically skipped Triple-A, and is pitching for : the New York Freaking Yankees. Cut the kid some slack. Indications are that : his mechanics are a bit off right now , hampering his fastball command and : probably the velocity too. As long as he remains healthy, I think there is a : really good chance that Hughes will be just fine. Maybe he just needs some : additional Triple-A time to regain his mechanical footing. 所以Hughes到底出了什麼毛病?我收到慌張的洋基球迷來信，詢問著Hughes的實力是不是 被大家過分誇大了。不，並沒有。我承認目前他的確是有問題。不過他才21歲，跳過3A直 接為紐約"怪咖"洋基隊投球。讓這個年輕人喘口氣吧!有些消息指出，他投球機制有點跑掉 同時造成球速跟控球的衰退。只要保持健康，我相信Hughes仍然大有可為。或許他只是需 要在3A出賽一些時間把他的投球機制給修正回來。 : Ah, but there's the standard young pitcher caveat: as long as he remains : healthy. I'm not worried about the mechanical problem in and of itself: that : should be correctable. But what if the mechanical problem is a symptom of : some underlying physical issue? That's known to happen, a pitcher altering : his delivery on a subconcious level in response to a developing injury that : he's not even aware of yet. Or what if there is no physical problem right : now, but the mechanical tinkering triggers one as muscles are stressed in an : unusual way? That's known to happen, too. 呃，不過這同時也是一個警訊："只要他保持健康" 我並不擔心投球機制本身的問題，因為 我相信那是可以被修正的。不過，如果投球機制的轉變，只是身體問題所產生的症狀呢? 我們已經知道這是會發生的。投手因為尚未成形、自己渾然不覺的傷痛，若有意、若無意 地改變了自己的投球機制。或者是考慮另外一種情形，投手目前還沒有身體上的狀況， 卻因為投球機制的改變帶來肌肉不正常的壓力? 這也是會發生的事情。 : Yankees fans want a prediction. So here's one: Hughes will struggle on and : off the next month or two, alternate strong outings with weak ones, with a : slight improvement in his ratios but not enough to make statheads : comfortable. Then in late July he goes on the DL with an injury of some kind, : probably something vague like "shoulder weakness." He rests and rehabs, comes : back in September and pitches like his normal self the rest of the way. He : still may have to pay the Major Injury Piper sometime down the line, but not : this year.. Whaddya think? 基迷想要一個預測。那我就來做一個。Hughes在接下來1到2個月持續掙扎，在好投跟爆炸 之間交替，同時會把他的K/BB比例提升，但還不足以讓數據頭滿意。六月下旬，他將會進 DL，原因則可能模糊不明，例如"肩膀不適"之類的毛病。然後經過休息與復健，九月他將 再起，在剩下的比賽中投出我們所期待他正常的一面。Hughes仍然可能要持續為他的舊傷 付出代價，但不是今年。你們怎麼想? --

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