by John Sickels on Apr 25, 2008 5:04 PM EDT http://www.minorleagueball.com/ : Lots of people have been asking me about Phil Hughes, so here goes. First the : brief career rundown. 很多人都向我询问Phil Hughes,所以我用这篇文章来讨论他。先来看看他的生涯成绩。 : Hughes was drafted in the first round in 2004, 23rd overall, out of high : school in Santa Ana, California. He threw five shutout innings in a : three-game trial in the Gulf Coast League. Scouts liked his projectability : and his command of his low-90s fastball, along with a strong slider and : changeup. I gave him a Grade B in the '05 book, worried about reports : regarding a sore elbow. Hughes是在2004年选秀会上第一轮23顺位被选走，当时他是加州Santa Ana的高中投手。 他在Gulf Coast League的三场试验性质比赛中投出5局无失分的表现。不少球探喜欢 Hughes的发展性，同时也对他对於low-90的速球控制感到满意。而Hughes除了这些之外， 还有强力滑球跟变速球。考虑到有些球探报告中提到手肘酸痛的问题，我在05年给他 B的评价。 : Shoulder trouble limited him to 16 starts in 2005, but they went well, : including a 1.97 ERA and a 72/16 K/BB in 69 innings in the Sally League, and : a 21/4 K/BB in 18 innings in the Florida State League. He improved his : curveball dramatically and began using it more than the slider, to reduce : stress on his arm. I raised his grade to B+ in the '06 book, but was worried : about injury risk. 他在05年受制於肩膀问题只先发出赛了16场，但依然表现精彩: 防御率1.97，在Sally League出赛69局交出 72/16 K/BB，在Florida State League出赛18局投出21/4 K/BB。 在这个阶段，Hughes的曲球戏剧性的产生大幅度进步，也让他使用曲球的比例开始超过 滑球。这降低了他手臂所承受的负担。在06年我把他的评价提升到B+，但仍然忧心於受伤 的风险。 : Hughes threw 146 innings in 2006, split between five starts for Tampa and 21 : for Double-A Trenton, where he went 10-3, 2.25 with a 138/32 K/BB in 116 : innings. His velocity spiked into the 93-95 range, hitting 96 at times. The : curveball also got better. Scouts were somewhat concerned about his erratic : changeup, but overall it was hard to knock his performance. I gave him a : straight Grade A, now considering that his injury risk was no higher than any : other pitcher his age. Hughes在06年总共在小联盟投了146局，其中5场替A+ Tampa先发，另外21场则是2A的 Trenton，在那里他在116局里10胜3败、防御率2.25，138/22 的K/BB。他的速球落在93 到95MPH之间，有时候甚至可以投到96MPH，曲球也进步了。球探有点担心他不稳的变速球 但是那根本无损於Hughes的表现。我当时直接给他A的评价，并且认为他受伤的风险不会比 同年龄的其他投手来的高。 : As you know, Hughes did have some durability troubles last year, Thankfully : it was his hamstrings and a bum ankle that were the problems, not his elbow : or shoulder. He held his own in major league action, very commendable given : his age and the pressure of the New York environment, but his velocity was : down at times, and again this year in the early going. In his major league : career thus far, Hughes is 5-6, 5.14 with a 69/39 K/BB in 91 innings. He's : been hit hard in April, and I don't like his 11/10 K/BB ratio in 2008. 就如同你们知道的，Hughes去年在持续出场投球上碰到一些困难。幸好经过检查发现是 腿肌腱跟踝部的问题，而不是手肘或肩膀的旧伤。考虑到他当时的年纪(20岁)，以及在 纽约出赛的环境压力，他去年的表现其实相当不错。不过他球速有时候会下滑，同样的状 况也发生在今年刚开季。看看他目前的大联盟成绩，5胜6败、91局ERA 5.14 69/39K/BB。 他在4月里被打得很惨，同时我也不喜欢他目前11/10 K/BB的比例。 : So what is wrong with Hughes? I get panicked email from Yankees fans, asking : if he was overhyped. No, he wasn't overhyped. Yes, there is a problem with : Hughes right now. He's 21, practically skipped Triple-A, and is pitching for : the New York Freaking Yankees. Cut the kid some slack. Indications are that : his mechanics are a bit off right now , hampering his fastball command and : probably the velocity too. As long as he remains healthy, I think there is a : really good chance that Hughes will be just fine. Maybe he just needs some : additional Triple-A time to regain his mechanical footing. 所以Hughes到底出了什麽毛病?我收到慌张的洋基球迷来信，询问着Hughes的实力是不是 被大家过分夸大了。不，并没有。我承认目前他的确是有问题。不过他才21岁，跳过3A直 接为纽约"怪咖"洋基队投球。让这个年轻人喘口气吧!有些消息指出，他投球机制有点跑掉 同时造成球速跟控球的衰退。只要保持健康，我相信Hughes仍然大有可为。或许他只是需 要在3A出赛一些时间把他的投球机制给修正回来。 : Ah, but there's the standard young pitcher caveat: as long as he remains : healthy. I'm not worried about the mechanical problem in and of itself: that : should be correctable. But what if the mechanical problem is a symptom of : some underlying physical issue? That's known to happen, a pitcher altering : his delivery on a subconcious level in response to a developing injury that : he's not even aware of yet. Or what if there is no physical problem right : now, but the mechanical tinkering triggers one as muscles are stressed in an : unusual way? That's known to happen, too. 呃，不过这同时也是一个警讯："只要他保持健康" 我并不担心投球机制本身的问题，因为 我相信那是可以被修正的。不过，如果投球机制的转变，只是身体问题所产生的症状呢? 我们已经知道这是会发生的。投手因为尚未成形、自己浑然不觉的伤痛，若有意、若无意 地改变了自己的投球机制。或者是考虑另外一种情形，投手目前还没有身体上的状况， 却因为投球机制的改变带来肌肉不正常的压力? 这也是会发生的事情。 : Yankees fans want a prediction. So here's one: Hughes will struggle on and : off the next month or two, alternate strong outings with weak ones, with a : slight improvement in his ratios but not enough to make statheads : comfortable. Then in late July he goes on the DL with an injury of some kind, : probably something vague like "shoulder weakness." He rests and rehabs, comes : back in September and pitches like his normal self the rest of the way. He : still may have to pay the Major Injury Piper sometime down the line, but not : this year.. Whaddya think? 基迷想要一个预测。那我就来做一个。Hughes在接下来1到2个月持续挣扎，在好投跟爆炸 之间交替，同时会把他的K/BB比例提升，但还不足以让数据头满意。六月下旬，他将会进 DL，原因则可能模糊不明，例如"肩膀不适"之类的毛病。然後经过休息与复健，九月他将 再起，在剩下的比赛中投出我们所期待他正常的一面。Hughes仍然可能要持续为他的旧伤 付出代价，但不是今年。你们怎麽想? --

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