http://tinyurl.com/4dhwr3 By Marc Hulet There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. Previously, I looked at the drafts in 2000 and 2001. 很多球迷會認為，第一輪選秀很容易就選到好物 – 或是說，應該是很容易。在這一系列 的文章中我們會瀏覽那些最近幾年成功的球隊是選了哪些人。這一篇是2002年。 The top 10 draft picks in the 2002 draft were not as bad as in 2000, nor were they quite as good as in 2001 in terms of star power. We have someone who has already hit 50 homers (Fielder) and someone who projects to be a superstar (Upton), but just hasn’t quite gotten there yet mainly due to his less-than-stellar defence. Both Francis and Greinke have established themselves in the starting rotation for their respective clubs but they look more like No. 3 starters than aces. Interestingly, seven of the Top 10 picks were nabbed out of high school as the prep crop looked a little more impressive than the college crowd. 2002選秀的素質大概介於2001和2000之間，有已經幹50本的(Fielder)或是有成為超級明星 的潛力(Upton)。另外Francis和Greinke也擠進輪值圈中，但也都是三號的料。有趣的是， 前10順位中有7位是高中生，而他們也表現得比大學生更加優異些。 The first 10 picks broke down like this: 1. Pittsburgh Bryan Bullington, RHP Ball State University 2. Tampa Bay B.J. Upton, SS Virginia high school 3. Cincinnati Chris Gruler, RHP California high school 4. Baltimore Adam Loewen, LHP British Columbia high school 5. Montreal Clint Everts, RHP Texas high school 6. Kansas City Zack Greinke, RHP Florida high school 7. Milwaukee Prince Fielder, 1B Florida high school 8. Detroit Scott Moore, SS California high school 9. Colorado Jeff Francis, LHP University of British Columbia 10. Texas Drew Meyer, SS University of South Carolina The remainder of the first round, which was probably the deepest talent-wise of the three drafts we’ve looked at so far, also had some hits and misses. The best players drafted outside the top 10 in the first round were: Florida’s Jeremy Hermida (11th), Los Angeles (AL)’s Joe Saunders (12th), San Diego’s Khalil Greene (13th), New York’s Scott Kazmir (15th), Oakland’s Nick Swisher (16th), Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels (17th), Los Angeles (NL)’s James Loney (19th), Cleveland’s Jeremy Guthrie (22nd), Atlanta’s Jeff Francoeur (23rd), Oakland’s Joe Blanton (24th), and San Francisco’s Matt Cain (25th). Yes, a lot of teams found value with the No. 1 picks in 2002. But that also makes the decision to draft players such as Gruler, Everts, Moore and Meyer look that much worse. And yes, I know this was the Moneyball draft, but I am so sick of hearing about it that I’m just going to gloss right over that fact. Let’s take another look at the Top 10: 其他成功的首輪選秀：Jeremy Hermida,Joe Saunders,Khalil Greene,Scott Kazmir,Nick Swisher,Cole Hamels,James Loney,Jeremy Guthrie,Jeff Francoeur,Joe Blanton,Matt Cain。是的，很多球隊得到他們想要的，但也有像Gruler,Everts,Moore,Meyer這種失敗的 例子。我知道這也是知名的「錢球選秀」，但我現在不想談論它。 Bryan Bullington As I wrote last week, the Pirates seem to find a way to screw things up. The first overall pick in the draft is the opportunity to take the best overall available player in the nation. Bullington represents one of the worst first overall picks in quite some time… as in Matt Bush bad. Rumors persist that the Pirates scouting director wanted to take Upton, the consensus best player available, but was overruled by management, which was more concerned with the bottom line. A few days before the draft, Bullington told Baseball America he was pretty excited that he might get taken first overall: "I don't know anything for certain at this point other than I'm under consideration. I'm just flattered that are thinking about using the first pick on me. There are some great players who have gone in that No. 1 spot in the draft. To think I might be in that same company is really something." A number of the top pitchers chosen in the draft were derailed by injuries and Bullington was no different. Bullington also never showed the velocity on his fastball that he did in college and often worked in the mid- to high-80s. In 2004, he spent the entire year in Double-A and won 12 games in 145 innings. However, he struck out only 100 (6.21 K/9) and allowed 9.93 H/9. Bullington jumped to Triple-A the next season and disaster struck. He battled shoulder issues all season but managed to appear in one major league game that year. However, after the season he underwent surgery for a torn labrum. Bullington missed all of 2006 but reappeared for Triple-A Indianapolis in 2007. He stuff had not improved, though, and he struck out only 5.32 per nine innings. Regardless, the Pirates allowed him to pitch in five major league games. He allowed 24 hits in 17 innings. Bryan Bullington： 就像我上週所說的，海盜隊總是有辦法選到假貨。狀元籤是選到最佳球員的好機會，而 Bullington是史上最糟的狀元之一，就像Matt Bush一樣糟。有傳聞說海盜的球探想要選當 時最好的球員Upton，但因為預算的關係而作罷。在選秀前幾天，Bullington告訴BA說他對 可能會成為狀元一事感到興奮： 　　可能會成為狀元一事讓我感到興奮。第一順位出了好些優秀球員，一想到我也有可能 　　成為其中一員就讓我爽的睡不著覺。 不少前段選秀的投手都受傷報廢，而Bullington也是其中之一。他的球速下滑到mid-to high-80s。2004年他在2A投了145局，成績是6.21 K/9　9.93 H/9。隔年升上3A後完全爆炸 ，這一年他一直為肩傷所困，但還是到大聯盟投了一場比賽。隔年他動了關節唇手術。 2007年他的K/9只剩下5.32，大聯盟5場出賽17局被打24安。 B.J. Upton In Upton’s pre-draft scouting report, Baseball America had this to say about Upton: Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. He's more physically mature than Jeter, who developed his physique in pro ball, and has better power. Upton is just 17 and will play at that age throughout his first professional season. Scouts are curious how he'll handle the pressure of experiencing failure for the first time, since he's rarely failed at any step of his baseball career. Interestingly, Upton never really struggled in the minors. He sat out the 2002 season while undergoing contract negotiations. As an 18-year-old, he started his career in A-ball and hit .302/.394/.445 and was promoted to High-A ball for the final 29 games of the season and he held his own. The next season he started 2004 in Double-A and batted .327/.407/.471. After only 29 games, he was headed to Triple-A for 69 games. He then got in 45 big league games at the age of 19 in only his second pro season. Upton did struggle a bit - .258/.324/.409 - but he certainly did not embarrass himself. Regardless, he spent most of the next two seasons in the minors to work on his defence as he spent time at third base and in the outfield, where he finally settled. Upton’s first full major league season in 2007 was a success as he hit .300/.386/.508 and he was still only 22 years old. B.J. Upton： BA在選秀前的球探報告中提到： 　　球探們拿Upton和Jeter做比較，而Upton甚至還更好。他的身體更加成熟而power也更 　　好。不過，球探們有些擔心他在失敗時對壓力的反應，畢竟他在生涯中幾乎沒有遭遇 　　過什麼挫折。 有趣的是，Upton在小聯盟中並沒有遇到真正的困難。18歲在A打出.302/.394/.445並且升 到A+打了29場比賽。隔年在2A打出.327/.407/.471，29場比賽之後升上3A，再69場之後就 到大聯盟打了45場比賽。他的大聯盟初體驗是不太美妙，但他並沒有喪失自信。然而，因 為守備太糟，接下來兩年都在小聯盟練守備，最後成為一位外野手。2007年他的第一個完 整球季很棒 - .300/.386/.508，而他現在還只是22歲的年輕人。 Chris Gruler Gruler improved significantly in his senior season of high school and went from throwing in the high-80s to throwing to the mid- to high-90s. The Reds jumped all over Gruler who had solid mechanics. Regardless, Gruler broke down almost immediately. He made 11 starts in his pro debut in 2002 but pitched only 16 games over the next four years thanks to rotator cuff surgery. Gruler last appeared in professional baseball during the 2006 season. Chris Gruler： Gruler在高中的最後一年大幅進步，球速從high-80s上升到mid- to high-90s。紅人隊選 了投球機制良好的Gruler。然而，Gruler可說是立刻就報廢了，他在2002年投了11場但在 接下來的四年中因為旋轉肌受傷只投了16場。他最後一次出賽是在2006年。 Adam Loewen A good ol’ Canadian boy, Loewen’s career has also been hampered by surgery – for a stress fracture in his left elbow. Unlike Gruler, though, Loewen made it to the majors before being shut down. He has a 4.98 career ERA in the majors and has struck out 7.57 batters per nine innings. Walks have been his nemesis, though, with a ratio of 5.55 BB/9. Loewen has returned from successful surgery and made the Orioles out of spring training in 2008. The southpaw is still loaded with potential and is only 24. 不錯的加拿大男孩。Loewen的生涯也是一直為傷所困；左手肘的壓力性骨折。不過， Loewen沒有因此倒下。他大聯盟生涯成績是ERA 4.98 7.57 K/9。今年他有了健康的一年 。這位南面爪還是充滿天賦而且只有24歲。 Clint Everts Everts is yet another injury victim from the 2002 draft, which explains why many of you may never have heard of him. Everts was a two-way player in high school and considered possibly the second-best shortstop in the draft (next to Upton). He was also considered almost as promising as teammate Kazmir. With his switch-hitting ability, plus speed and stellar defensive play, Everts might be the second-best shortstop in the nation after Virginia high schooler B.J. Upton. Yet he'll almost certainly be taken as a pitcher, and one scouting director with an early pick says Everts could be the best arm to come out of the draft… Scouts dream about pitchers with his kind of quick arm action. "He's the sleeper of the whole draft," one scouting director said. "He's going to make someone very happy." Evert’s calling card on the mound was a killer curveball, which ended up killing his elbow, as he had Tommy John surgery after the 2004 season. It was unfortunate because Evert had adjusted very nicely to pro ball and reached High-A ball in his second season, at the age of 19. Fast forward three years to the end of 2007 and Everts was still in High-A ball and posted a 4.81 ERA. He also walked 56 in 97.1 innings (5.18 BB/9). Perhaps it’s time to try a conversion back to the field? Clint Everts： Everts是另一位傷兵，這也是為什麼他的知名度如此之低。Everts高中時期是投打雙棲的 好手並且被認為是第二好的游擊手，他的天份不下於隊友Kazmir。 　　他是選秀會中僅次於Upton的第二游擊手，左右開弓並有極佳的速度和手備。身為投手 　　，他有著選秀會中最好的手臂...球探們夢想中的揮臂動作。"他會是黑馬"一位球探說 　　"選到他的人會大撈一筆" Evert的招牌曲球最後終結了他的手肘。2004年動了Tommy John手術。這是很可惜的一件事 ，因為他對職棒適應良好。2007年他還在A+掙扎，也許該是棄投從打的時候？ Zack Greinke Greinke has had his ups and downs in his pro career but the talent has always been there. He is one of those players that always had things come easy to him in baseball, thanks in no small part to above-average stuff as well as solid command and control. As a 19-year-old pitcher in High-A ball, Greinke went 11-1 with a 1.14 ERA. He allowed 5.79 H/9 and walked only 1.34 batters per nine innings. Less than a year later, at the age of 20, Greinke was in Kansas City and he posted an ERA of 3.97, allowed fewer than one hit per inning and walked only 26 batters in 145 innings. One of the most impressive things was that Greinke “got it” at an early age; he constantly took 4-5 mph off his fastball to increase the movement and control of his pitches. Then 2005 came along and, along with the Royals’ continued struggles, Greinke posted a 5.80 ERA and lost 17 games. Greinke lost some of his passion for the game the following year and spent some time away from the game before returning but he pitched in only three major league games in 2006. The Greinke of old began to work himself back into shape in 2007 as he split time between the rotation and bullpen. He posted a 3.69 ERA and allowed 122 hits in 122 innings. Zack Greinke： Greinke生涯一直起起伏伏，但他的天份一直都有。他是那種會讓人感到舒服的球員，有上 乘的stuff和控球。19歲時就主宰A+，隔年在大聯盟145局ERA 3.97。令人印象深刻的是， Greinke很早就領悟到要怎麼投球。他不強求球速而是以控球和尾勁取勝。然而，2005年 Greinke和皇家陷入困境，他也對棒球有些喪失熱情。2007年他終於重回大聯盟，122局 ERA 3.69。 Prince Fielder Teams knew Fielder could hit. It was apparent very early on in his prep career, if not sooner. But teams also knew Fielder’s body took after his father’s. And it’s never a good thing for a 16-year-old’s body to mimic that of a 40-year-old’s… even if that 40-year-old once hit 50 home runs in the majors. Regardless, the Brewers could not pass on the younger Fielder’s prodigious power and he rewarded them by becoming part of the only father-son combo to each hit 50 homers in the major leagues. Prince accomplished the goal at age 23 , besting father Cecil by three years. Prince has done nothing but hit as a pro and there have been no signs that he will struggle any time soon. However, he has one of those sluggers’ bodies that likely won’t age well. Prince Fielder： Fielder能打擊，但他太胖了，就跟他老爸一樣，這對16歲的小朋友來說不是好是，即使這 位胖子一年可以打50本...。即使如此，酒鬼還是選了他，回報則是最年輕的50本打者。 然而，他的身材將會使他很難有長久健康的生涯。 Scott Moore After three minor league seasons in the Tigers’ system, Moore looked like a first round bust. He hit .223/.322/.384 as a 20-year-old third baseman in High-A ball. The next spring he was sent to the Chicago Cubs along with another disappointing youngster for reliever Kyle Farnsworth. Once he escaped Detroit’s minor league system, Moore flourished and hit .281/.358/.485 with 20 homers in a return engagement to High-A ball. He had an equally successful year in Double-A in 2006 and received his first brief taste of the majors. After spending most of 2007 in Triple-A, Moore was used to obtain Steve Trachsel from the Baltimore Orioles. He broke camp in 2008 as a back-up infielder for Baltimore but offers as much – or more – offensive potential as incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora. Scott Moore： 三年之後，Moore看來是個失敗的首輪選秀。20歲時他在A+打出.223/.322/.384，隔年被送 到小熊。在小熊農場打的不錯。2007年被送到金鶯換Trachsel。2008年他的位置是替補內 野手。 Jeff Francis The Toronto Blue Jays were salivating at the idea of choosing an advanced college pitcher, who just happened to be Canadian, with the 14th overall pick. It is rumored that they even had a pre-draft deal worked out with the southpaw. However, the Rockies came along, recognized his talent, and scooped him up. By the end of 2004 Francis was in the majors for good and the Jays organization is still waiting for its first round selection, Russ Adams (who has gone from SS to 2B to RF), to leave Triple-A behind him. Francis will likely never be a star , but he is a valuable No. 3 starter. He allows a lot of hits – 691 in 634.2 innings – but throws his fair share of innings (215.1 in 2007) and his walk totals have diminished over time (3.43 BB/9 in 2005 to 3.12 to 2.63). He also increased his strikeout total to 165 last season, not bad for a lefty that works in the upper 80s with his fastball. Jeff Francis： 藍鳥隊想選一位完成度高的大學投手，剛好他又是加拿大人。甚至有流言說藍鳥和Francis 已經私下達成合約協議。然而，洛磯隊搶走了Francis。Francis看來不會是大明星但會是 可靠的三號投手。他被打不少安打，但也吃了不少局，保送率也有下降。去年他三振165人 ，對一位投不到90mph的左投來說還算不錯。 Drew Meyer Last week I wrote that I get nervous about talking middle infielders with a high pick unless they are “can’t miss” impact bats. Upton was obviously one of those, and Meyer was not. He always had talent, though, and was drafted in the second round out of high school by the Dodgers. In his junior year at South Carolina, Meyer hit an impressive .359/.411/.512 but slugged only six homers and walked 28 times while striking out 57 times in 334 at-bats. Perhaps prophetically, Meyer hit .214 and .192 during two summer seasons with wood bats in the Cape Cod League. He was also ranked 27th in Baseball America’s pre-draft talent rankings and was projected to go in the second half of the first round, not the Top 10. Meyer made it to Double-A in his first full pro season but didn’t hit for power, didn’t walk and struck out too much for a top-of-the-order hitter. To this point he has five big league games to his credit. Drew Meyer： 上週我有談到我不喜歡在高順位選進內野手，除非他們是“can’t miss”。Upton是 “can’t miss”，而Drew Meyer不是。Meyer一直有很好的天份，也曾在第二輪被道奇隊 選中。大三他打出.359/.411/.512但全壘打和保送都太少。他在兩年的 Cape Cod League 中只打出.214和.192，也許這是他失敗的徵兆。他的天份排名BA第27而不是前十。在職業 生涯中Drew Meyer沒有power沒有保送同時被三振太多次，這就是為什麼他只打過五場大聯 盟比賽。 --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3