http://tinyurl.com/4dhwr3 By Marc Hulet There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. Previously, I looked at the drafts in 2000 and 2001. 很多球迷会认为，第一轮选秀很容易就选到好物 – 或是说，应该是很容易。在这一系列 的文章中我们会浏览那些最近几年成功的球队是选了哪些人。这一篇是2002年。 The top 10 draft picks in the 2002 draft were not as bad as in 2000, nor were they quite as good as in 2001 in terms of star power. We have someone who has already hit 50 homers (Fielder) and someone who projects to be a superstar (Upton), but just hasn’t quite gotten there yet mainly due to his less-than-stellar defence. Both Francis and Greinke have established themselves in the starting rotation for their respective clubs but they look more like No. 3 starters than aces. Interestingly, seven of the Top 10 picks were nabbed out of high school as the prep crop looked a little more impressive than the college crowd. 2002选秀的素质大概介於2001和2000之间，有已经干50本的(Fielder)或是有成为超级明星 的潜力(Upton)。另外Francis和Greinke也挤进轮值圈中，但也都是三号的料。有趣的是， 前10顺位中有7位是高中生，而他们也表现得比大学生更加优异些。 The first 10 picks broke down like this: 1. Pittsburgh Bryan Bullington, RHP Ball State University 2. Tampa Bay B.J. Upton, SS Virginia high school 3. Cincinnati Chris Gruler, RHP California high school 4. Baltimore Adam Loewen, LHP British Columbia high school 5. Montreal Clint Everts, RHP Texas high school 6. Kansas City Zack Greinke, RHP Florida high school 7. Milwaukee Prince Fielder, 1B Florida high school 8. Detroit Scott Moore, SS California high school 9. Colorado Jeff Francis, LHP University of British Columbia 10. Texas Drew Meyer, SS University of South Carolina The remainder of the first round, which was probably the deepest talent-wise of the three drafts we’ve looked at so far, also had some hits and misses. The best players drafted outside the top 10 in the first round were: Florida’s Jeremy Hermida (11th), Los Angeles (AL)’s Joe Saunders (12th), San Diego’s Khalil Greene (13th), New York’s Scott Kazmir (15th), Oakland’s Nick Swisher (16th), Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels (17th), Los Angeles (NL)’s James Loney (19th), Cleveland’s Jeremy Guthrie (22nd), Atlanta’s Jeff Francoeur (23rd), Oakland’s Joe Blanton (24th), and San Francisco’s Matt Cain (25th). Yes, a lot of teams found value with the No. 1 picks in 2002. But that also makes the decision to draft players such as Gruler, Everts, Moore and Meyer look that much worse. And yes, I know this was the Moneyball draft, but I am so sick of hearing about it that I’m just going to gloss right over that fact. Let’s take another look at the Top 10: 其他成功的首轮选秀：Jeremy Hermida,Joe Saunders,Khalil Greene,Scott Kazmir,Nick Swisher,Cole Hamels,James Loney,Jeremy Guthrie,Jeff Francoeur,Joe Blanton,Matt Cain。是的，很多球队得到他们想要的，但也有像Gruler,Everts,Moore,Meyer这种失败的 例子。我知道这也是知名的「钱球选秀」，但我现在不想谈论它。 Bryan Bullington As I wrote last week, the Pirates seem to find a way to screw things up. The first overall pick in the draft is the opportunity to take the best overall available player in the nation. Bullington represents one of the worst first overall picks in quite some time… as in Matt Bush bad. Rumors persist that the Pirates scouting director wanted to take Upton, the consensus best player available, but was overruled by management, which was more concerned with the bottom line. A few days before the draft, Bullington told Baseball America he was pretty excited that he might get taken first overall: "I don't know anything for certain at this point other than I'm under consideration. I'm just flattered that are thinking about using the first pick on me. There are some great players who have gone in that No. 1 spot in the draft. To think I might be in that same company is really something." A number of the top pitchers chosen in the draft were derailed by injuries and Bullington was no different. Bullington also never showed the velocity on his fastball that he did in college and often worked in the mid- to high-80s. In 2004, he spent the entire year in Double-A and won 12 games in 145 innings. However, he struck out only 100 (6.21 K/9) and allowed 9.93 H/9. Bullington jumped to Triple-A the next season and disaster struck. He battled shoulder issues all season but managed to appear in one major league game that year. However, after the season he underwent surgery for a torn labrum. Bullington missed all of 2006 but reappeared for Triple-A Indianapolis in 2007. He stuff had not improved, though, and he struck out only 5.32 per nine innings. Regardless, the Pirates allowed him to pitch in five major league games. He allowed 24 hits in 17 innings. Bryan Bullington： 就像我上周所说的，海盗队总是有办法选到假货。状元签是选到最佳球员的好机会，而 Bullington是史上最糟的状元之一，就像Matt Bush一样糟。有传闻说海盗的球探想要选当 时最好的球员Upton，但因为预算的关系而作罢。在选秀前几天，Bullington告诉BA说他对 可能会成为状元一事感到兴奋： 　　可能会成为状元一事让我感到兴奋。第一顺位出了好些优秀球员，一想到我也有可能 　　成为其中一员就让我爽的睡不着觉。 不少前段选秀的投手都受伤报废，而Bullington也是其中之一。他的球速下滑到mid-to high-80s。2004年他在2A投了145局，成绩是6.21 K/9　9.93 H/9。隔年升上3A後完全爆炸 ，这一年他一直为肩伤所困，但还是到大联盟投了一场比赛。隔年他动了关节唇手术。 2007年他的K/9只剩下5.32，大联盟5场出赛17局被打24安。 B.J. Upton In Upton’s pre-draft scouting report, Baseball America had this to say about Upton: Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. He's more physically mature than Jeter, who developed his physique in pro ball, and has better power. Upton is just 17 and will play at that age throughout his first professional season. Scouts are curious how he'll handle the pressure of experiencing failure for the first time, since he's rarely failed at any step of his baseball career. Interestingly, Upton never really struggled in the minors. He sat out the 2002 season while undergoing contract negotiations. As an 18-year-old, he started his career in A-ball and hit .302/.394/.445 and was promoted to High-A ball for the final 29 games of the season and he held his own. The next season he started 2004 in Double-A and batted .327/.407/.471. After only 29 games, he was headed to Triple-A for 69 games. He then got in 45 big league games at the age of 19 in only his second pro season. Upton did struggle a bit - .258/.324/.409 - but he certainly did not embarrass himself. Regardless, he spent most of the next two seasons in the minors to work on his defence as he spent time at third base and in the outfield, where he finally settled. Upton’s first full major league season in 2007 was a success as he hit .300/.386/.508 and he was still only 22 years old. B.J. Upton： BA在选秀前的球探报告中提到： 　　球探们拿Upton和Jeter做比较，而Upton甚至还更好。他的身体更加成熟而power也更 　　好。不过，球探们有些担心他在失败时对压力的反应，毕竟他在生涯中几乎没有遭遇 　　过什麽挫折。 有趣的是，Upton在小联盟中并没有遇到真正的困难。18岁在A打出.302/.394/.445并且升 到A+打了29场比赛。隔年在2A打出.327/.407/.471，29场比赛之後升上3A，再69场之後就 到大联盟打了45场比赛。他的大联盟初体验是不太美妙，但他并没有丧失自信。然而，因 为守备太糟，接下来两年都在小联盟练守备，最後成为一位外野手。2007年他的第一个完 整球季很棒 - .300/.386/.508，而他现在还只是22岁的年轻人。 Chris Gruler Gruler improved significantly in his senior season of high school and went from throwing in the high-80s to throwing to the mid- to high-90s. The Reds jumped all over Gruler who had solid mechanics. Regardless, Gruler broke down almost immediately. He made 11 starts in his pro debut in 2002 but pitched only 16 games over the next four years thanks to rotator cuff surgery. Gruler last appeared in professional baseball during the 2006 season. Chris Gruler： Gruler在高中的最後一年大幅进步，球速从high-80s上升到mid- to high-90s。红人队选 了投球机制良好的Gruler。然而，Gruler可说是立刻就报废了，他在2002年投了11场但在 接下来的四年中因为旋转肌受伤只投了16场。他最後一次出赛是在2006年。 Adam Loewen A good ol’ Canadian boy, Loewen’s career has also been hampered by surgery – for a stress fracture in his left elbow. Unlike Gruler, though, Loewen made it to the majors before being shut down. He has a 4.98 career ERA in the majors and has struck out 7.57 batters per nine innings. Walks have been his nemesis, though, with a ratio of 5.55 BB/9. Loewen has returned from successful surgery and made the Orioles out of spring training in 2008. The southpaw is still loaded with potential and is only 24. 不错的加拿大男孩。Loewen的生涯也是一直为伤所困；左手肘的压力性骨折。不过， Loewen没有因此倒下。他大联盟生涯成绩是ERA 4.98 7.57 K/9。今年他有了健康的一年 。这位南面爪还是充满天赋而且只有24岁。 Clint Everts Everts is yet another injury victim from the 2002 draft, which explains why many of you may never have heard of him. Everts was a two-way player in high school and considered possibly the second-best shortstop in the draft (next to Upton). He was also considered almost as promising as teammate Kazmir. With his switch-hitting ability, plus speed and stellar defensive play, Everts might be the second-best shortstop in the nation after Virginia high schooler B.J. Upton. Yet he'll almost certainly be taken as a pitcher, and one scouting director with an early pick says Everts could be the best arm to come out of the draft… Scouts dream about pitchers with his kind of quick arm action. "He's the sleeper of the whole draft," one scouting director said. "He's going to make someone very happy." Evert’s calling card on the mound was a killer curveball, which ended up killing his elbow, as he had Tommy John surgery after the 2004 season. It was unfortunate because Evert had adjusted very nicely to pro ball and reached High-A ball in his second season, at the age of 19. Fast forward three years to the end of 2007 and Everts was still in High-A ball and posted a 4.81 ERA. He also walked 56 in 97.1 innings (5.18 BB/9). Perhaps it’s time to try a conversion back to the field? Clint Everts： Everts是另一位伤兵，这也是为什麽他的知名度如此之低。Everts高中时期是投打双栖的 好手并且被认为是第二好的游击手，他的天份不下於队友Kazmir。 　　他是选秀会中仅次於Upton的第二游击手，左右开弓并有极佳的速度和手备。身为投手 　　，他有着选秀会中最好的手臂...球探们梦想中的挥臂动作。"他会是黑马"一位球探说 　　"选到他的人会大捞一笔" Evert的招牌曲球最後终结了他的手肘。2004年动了Tommy John手术。这是很可惜的一件事 ，因为他对职棒适应良好。2007年他还在A+挣扎，也许该是弃投从打的时候？ Zack Greinke Greinke has had his ups and downs in his pro career but the talent has always been there. He is one of those players that always had things come easy to him in baseball, thanks in no small part to above-average stuff as well as solid command and control. As a 19-year-old pitcher in High-A ball, Greinke went 11-1 with a 1.14 ERA. He allowed 5.79 H/9 and walked only 1.34 batters per nine innings. Less than a year later, at the age of 20, Greinke was in Kansas City and he posted an ERA of 3.97, allowed fewer than one hit per inning and walked only 26 batters in 145 innings. One of the most impressive things was that Greinke “got it” at an early age; he constantly took 4-5 mph off his fastball to increase the movement and control of his pitches. Then 2005 came along and, along with the Royals’ continued struggles, Greinke posted a 5.80 ERA and lost 17 games. Greinke lost some of his passion for the game the following year and spent some time away from the game before returning but he pitched in only three major league games in 2006. The Greinke of old began to work himself back into shape in 2007 as he split time between the rotation and bullpen. He posted a 3.69 ERA and allowed 122 hits in 122 innings. Zack Greinke： Greinke生涯一直起起伏伏，但他的天份一直都有。他是那种会让人感到舒服的球员，有上 乘的stuff和控球。19岁时就主宰A+，隔年在大联盟145局ERA 3.97。令人印象深刻的是， Greinke很早就领悟到要怎麽投球。他不强求球速而是以控球和尾劲取胜。然而，2005年 Greinke和皇家陷入困境，他也对棒球有些丧失热情。2007年他终於重回大联盟，122局 ERA 3.69。 Prince Fielder Teams knew Fielder could hit. It was apparent very early on in his prep career, if not sooner. But teams also knew Fielder’s body took after his father’s. And it’s never a good thing for a 16-year-old’s body to mimic that of a 40-year-old’s… even if that 40-year-old once hit 50 home runs in the majors. Regardless, the Brewers could not pass on the younger Fielder’s prodigious power and he rewarded them by becoming part of the only father-son combo to each hit 50 homers in the major leagues. Prince accomplished the goal at age 23 , besting father Cecil by three years. Prince has done nothing but hit as a pro and there have been no signs that he will struggle any time soon. However, he has one of those sluggers’ bodies that likely won’t age well. Prince Fielder： Fielder能打击，但他太胖了，就跟他老爸一样，这对16岁的小朋友来说不是好是，即使这 位胖子一年可以打50本...。即使如此，酒鬼还是选了他，回报则是最年轻的50本打者。 然而，他的身材将会使他很难有长久健康的生涯。 Scott Moore After three minor league seasons in the Tigers’ system, Moore looked like a first round bust. He hit .223/.322/.384 as a 20-year-old third baseman in High-A ball. The next spring he was sent to the Chicago Cubs along with another disappointing youngster for reliever Kyle Farnsworth. Once he escaped Detroit’s minor league system, Moore flourished and hit .281/.358/.485 with 20 homers in a return engagement to High-A ball. He had an equally successful year in Double-A in 2006 and received his first brief taste of the majors. After spending most of 2007 in Triple-A, Moore was used to obtain Steve Trachsel from the Baltimore Orioles. He broke camp in 2008 as a back-up infielder for Baltimore but offers as much – or more – offensive potential as incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora. Scott Moore： 三年之後，Moore看来是个失败的首轮选秀。20岁时他在A+打出.223/.322/.384，隔年被送 到小熊。在小熊农场打的不错。2007年被送到金莺换Trachsel。2008年他的位置是替补内 野手。 Jeff Francis The Toronto Blue Jays were salivating at the idea of choosing an advanced college pitcher, who just happened to be Canadian, with the 14th overall pick. It is rumored that they even had a pre-draft deal worked out with the southpaw. However, the Rockies came along, recognized his talent, and scooped him up. By the end of 2004 Francis was in the majors for good and the Jays organization is still waiting for its first round selection, Russ Adams (who has gone from SS to 2B to RF), to leave Triple-A behind him. Francis will likely never be a star , but he is a valuable No. 3 starter. He allows a lot of hits – 691 in 634.2 innings – but throws his fair share of innings (215.1 in 2007) and his walk totals have diminished over time (3.43 BB/9 in 2005 to 3.12 to 2.63). He also increased his strikeout total to 165 last season, not bad for a lefty that works in the upper 80s with his fastball. Jeff Francis： 蓝鸟队想选一位完成度高的大学投手，刚好他又是加拿大人。甚至有流言说蓝鸟和Francis 已经私下达成合约协议。然而，洛矶队抢走了Francis。Francis看来不会是大明星但会是 可靠的三号投手。他被打不少安打，但也吃了不少局，保送率也有下降。去年他三振165人 ，对一位投不到90mph的左投来说还算不错。 Drew Meyer Last week I wrote that I get nervous about talking middle infielders with a high pick unless they are “can’t miss” impact bats. Upton was obviously one of those, and Meyer was not. He always had talent, though, and was drafted in the second round out of high school by the Dodgers. In his junior year at South Carolina, Meyer hit an impressive .359/.411/.512 but slugged only six homers and walked 28 times while striking out 57 times in 334 at-bats. Perhaps prophetically, Meyer hit .214 and .192 during two summer seasons with wood bats in the Cape Cod League. He was also ranked 27th in Baseball America’s pre-draft talent rankings and was projected to go in the second half of the first round, not the Top 10. Meyer made it to Double-A in his first full pro season but didn’t hit for power, didn’t walk and struck out too much for a top-of-the-order hitter. To this point he has five big league games to his credit. Drew Meyer： 上周我有谈到我不喜欢在高顺位选进内野手，除非他们是“can’t miss”。Upton是 “can’t miss”，而Drew Meyer不是。Meyer一直有很好的天份，也曾在第二轮被道奇队 选中。大三他打出.359/.411/.512但全垒打和保送都太少。他在两年的 Cape Cod League 中只打出.214和.192，也许这是他失败的徵兆。他的天份排名BA第27而不是前十。在职业 生涯中Drew Meyer没有power没有保送同时被三振太多次，这就是为什麽他只打过五场大联 盟比赛。 --

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