標題: Dollar at crossroads amid brighter US outlook By Peter Garnham in London Published: August 10 2008 18:55 | Last updated: August 10 2008 18:55 This week will be crucial in determining whether the dollar has broken free from its six-year downward trend, as speculation mounts that the US is in the best position to emerge quickly from the economic downturn. 這禮拜會是決定美元是否已經擺脫其六年疲軟的關鍵時間，已經有許多預測認為美國 現在已經處於從經濟衰退反彈回升的最佳位置。 The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, put in its best performance for over three-and-a-half years last week and boosted the dollar to its highest level for four months. 六種主要貨幣決定價值的美元指數在上個禮拜展現其三年半以來最佳的表現，並將 美元抬升到四月以來最高價值。 Against the euro, the dollar surged more than 5 cents, taking it more than 6 per cent higher than the low it hit last month. 美元對歐元升值五分，比上月低點高了6％。 Amid thin August volumes, traders believe there will be impetus to push the euro-dollar rate below the $1.50 barrier from its Friday figure of $1.5014 and to send sterling-dollar towards $1.90, consolidating last week’s 2.9 per cent fall to $1.9189. 八月交易量雖低，但交易者認為會有衝力帶動歐元美元匯率從上月的$1：$1.5014到 低於$1.50，並將英磅對美元從￡1:$1.9189推向$1.90，彌補上禮拜2.9%的貶值。 Analysts say the turn towards the dollar reflects surprise that the fallout from the credit crisis has had such a marked effect on economies outside the US. 分析師說，美元反彈反應出信貸危機對於美國以外的經濟體所造成的影響甚劇。 They say other central banks, unlike the Federal Reserve, have been slow to respond to a potential slowdown, refusing to cut interest rates as they focus on fighting inflation. 他們說其他中央銀行與聯準會不同，對於經濟趨緩反應較慢，並為了抵抗通澎而 拒絕降息。 However, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, warned of a slowdown in the eurozone in the coming months, quashing expectations of higher interest rates. 但歐洲中央銀行主席Trichet警告未來幾個月在歐元區會面臨經濟趨緩，此消息打破 升息的預測。 The trend is expected to be confirmed by data from Germany this week, which is forecast to show that growth contracted in the second quarter. 一般認為，這個趨勢將會被德國這禮拜將提供的資料證實，其中會指出第二季成長收縮。 Japanese officials have warned that the economy is heading for recession, while UK data continue to deteriorate and the Reserve Bank of Australia has said it is set to cut interest rates. 日本官員警告其經濟即將面臨衰退，而英國資料越來越不樂觀，而澳洲儲備銀行說 他們即將要降息。 Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank said in a note he expected the dollar to rise “like a phoenix”. He said low US interest rates were not a burden on the dollar but an attraction, proof that the Federal Reserve was able to react quicker to turmoil than other central banks. 德國商業銀行的Ulrich Leuchtmann說他預測美元會如「浴火鳳凰般」反彈。他說 美國的低利息對美元不是負擔而是吸引利，證明聯準會能夠比其他中央銀行更快 針對問題反應。 He said that in a very short period, “sentiment turned by 180 degrees – the market now believes that the US economy once again will be able to leave a crisis behind very quickly”. 他說在短期內，「認知有180度大轉變──市場現在相信美國經濟會再一次很快地 脫離危機。」 David Deddouche at Société Générale believes a wider adjustment is taking place that will send the dollar higher. 法國興業銀行的David Deddouche認為現在正有一個更廣泛的調整，讓美元能夠衝的 更高。 He said the decoupling theory pushed the dollar down to multi-year lows. “We believe this is one of the weakest assumptions embedded in the pricing of financial assets,” he said. 他相信所謂「分道揚鑣理論」讓美元陷入多年低迷。「我們相信這是潛伏金融資產定價 之中最弱的一種假設。」 Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46500de6-6702-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html 新聞來源: (需有正確連結) -- --

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