标题: Dollar at crossroads amid brighter US outlook By Peter Garnham in London Published: August 10 2008 18:55 | Last updated: August 10 2008 18:55 This week will be crucial in determining whether the dollar has broken free from its six-year downward trend, as speculation mounts that the US is in the best position to emerge quickly from the economic downturn. 这礼拜会是决定美元是否已经摆脱其六年疲软的关键时间，已经有许多预测认为美国 现在已经处於从经济衰退反弹回升的最佳位置。 The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, put in its best performance for over three-and-a-half years last week and boosted the dollar to its highest level for four months. 六种主要货币决定价值的美元指数在上个礼拜展现其三年半以来最佳的表现，并将 美元抬升到四月以来最高价值。 Against the euro, the dollar surged more than 5 cents, taking it more than 6 per cent higher than the low it hit last month. 美元对欧元升值五分，比上月低点高了6％。 Amid thin August volumes, traders believe there will be impetus to push the euro-dollar rate below the $1.50 barrier from its Friday figure of $1.5014 and to send sterling-dollar towards $1.90, consolidating last week’s 2.9 per cent fall to $1.9189. 八月交易量虽低，但交易者认为会有冲力带动欧元美元汇率从上月的$1：$1.5014到 低於$1.50，并将英磅对美元从￡1:$1.9189推向$1.90，弥补上礼拜2.9%的贬值。 Analysts say the turn towards the dollar reflects surprise that the fallout from the credit crisis has had such a marked effect on economies outside the US. 分析师说，美元反弹反应出信贷危机对於美国以外的经济体所造成的影响甚剧。 They say other central banks, unlike the Federal Reserve, have been slow to respond to a potential slowdown, refusing to cut interest rates as they focus on fighting inflation. 他们说其他中央银行与联准会不同，对於经济趋缓反应较慢，并为了抵抗通澎而 拒绝降息。 However, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, warned of a slowdown in the eurozone in the coming months, quashing expectations of higher interest rates. 但欧洲中央银行主席Trichet警告未来几个月在欧元区会面临经济趋缓，此消息打破 升息的预测。 The trend is expected to be confirmed by data from Germany this week, which is forecast to show that growth contracted in the second quarter. 一般认为，这个趋势将会被德国这礼拜将提供的资料证实，其中会指出第二季成长收缩。 Japanese officials have warned that the economy is heading for recession, while UK data continue to deteriorate and the Reserve Bank of Australia has said it is set to cut interest rates. 日本官员警告其经济即将面临衰退，而英国资料越来越不乐观，而澳洲储备银行说 他们即将要降息。 Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank said in a note he expected the dollar to rise “like a phoenix”. He said low US interest rates were not a burden on the dollar but an attraction, proof that the Federal Reserve was able to react quicker to turmoil than other central banks. 德国商业银行的Ulrich Leuchtmann说他预测美元会如「浴火凤凰般」反弹。他说 美国的低利息对美元不是负担而是吸引利，证明联准会能够比其他中央银行更快 针对问题反应。 He said that in a very short period, “sentiment turned by 180 degrees – the market now believes that the US economy once again will be able to leave a crisis behind very quickly”. 他说在短期内，「认知有180度大转变──市场现在相信美国经济会再一次很快地 脱离危机。」 David Deddouche at Société Générale believes a wider adjustment is taking place that will send the dollar higher. 法国兴业银行的David Deddouche认为现在正有一个更广泛的调整，让美元能够冲的 更高。 He said the decoupling theory pushed the dollar down to multi-year lows. “We believe this is one of the weakest assumptions embedded in the pricing of financial assets,” he said. 他相信所谓「分道扬镳理论」让美元陷入多年低迷。「我们相信这是潜伏金融资产定价 之中最弱的一种假设。」 Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46500de6-6702-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html 新闻来源: (需有正确连结) -- --

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