藉這篇文章發表一下意見好了 ^^ 首先貼一份前幾天在彭博社看到的新聞 已經看過這份報導的就跳過新聞的部分 直接批閱最後面我寫的感想 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=asDdu6RDxcb4&refer=economy Fed's Fisher Says Subprime Damage Mostly Contained (Update3) 聯準會的費雪表示次級房貸的傷害大致已獲得控制 April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said damage from the U.S. subprime mortgage market is mostly contained and central bankers are trying to ``tread very carefully'' in response. 聯準會達拉斯銀行總裁Richard費雪表示，次級房貸市場帶來的傷害已大致穩定下 來，同時央行成員們正非常小心地一步步處理以因應此一問題。 ``Regulatory agencies are working hard to avoid causing an overreaction with credit standards that would needlessly cause too much of a slowdown in housing or the overall economy,'' Fisher said in a speech today to the Austin Mortgage Bankers Association in Texas. Fisher在今天對奧斯丁負貸款銀行協會的演講中說，負責調控貸款問題的機關正努 力地避免因放款標準的調整而造成市場過度反應，才不至於造成太大的房市萎縮甚至是 整體經濟的趨緩。 While the housing industry will likely hold down growth, consumer spending continues to sustain the economy, he said. The central bank's job isn't to bail out particular industries, Fisher added. He said he's ``very happy'' with the Fed's stance of leaving interest rates unchanged while keeping inflation as its main concern. Fisher說，儘管房屋產業將來可能停止成長，消費者支出依然支撐著經濟。他補充 道，央行的任務不是要為特定產業護航，他非常樂於見到聯準會一方面以控制通膨為己 任、另一方面又維持其利率水平不變的立場。 ``The damage from the subprime market has been largely contained,'' Fisher said. ``Fortunately, the financial system and the economy are strong enough to weather this storm.'' Fisher提到，次級房貸市場造成的傷害已經大大地獲得控制，幸運的是，財政系統 與經濟皆堅實得足以承受這場風暴。 Speaking with reporters after the speech, Fisher said he was ``hopeful'' that inflation will moderate. It remains ``too high,'' he added. 會後Fisher與記者們談話時表示，他非常希望通膨將來能慢慢緩和下來，目前通膨 仍然太高。 The Fed's preferred inflation benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, has been at or above the top of the comfort zone articulated by at least six Fed officials for almost three years. It rose 2.4 percent for the year in February. 至少有六位聯準會的成員曾清楚表示，聯準會偏好的通膨水平，亦即扣除食物與能 源的核心消費物價指數（CPI），這三年來都介於、甚或高於理想的區域，通膨水平在 二月已經高到2.4%。 Fed Statement 聯準會聲明 The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on March 21 to keep the overnight lending rate between banks at 5.25 percent, the level it's been at since June. The Fed dropped reference to the chance of ``additional firming'' in rates, while stating that inflation was the ``predominant concern.'' The next meeting is on May 9. 聯準會於3月21號採不記名投票的方式，決議銀行間隔夜拆帳利率維持在5.25%不變 ，這個水平自從去年六月以來便沒有改變。聯準會在說明通膨為其首要考量時也無意間 透露出可能「再次緊縮」銀根的可能性。 ``I'm very happy with where we are and I'm very happy with the way the statement stated what we discussed,'' Fisher said. By comparison, St. Louis Fed President William Poole, said earlier this week that the March 21 statement wasn't entirely successful because economists had differing interpretations. Fisher說：「對於我們現在所處的情況我很樂觀，也很樂於見到聲明稿陳述的方式 。」相較之下，聖路易銀行的總裁William Poole稍早時則表示，3月21號的聲明稿並非 完全成功的，因為經濟學家對於其內容有不同的詮釋。 Fisher said that subprime problems are limited in part because many mortgages were packaged into bonds, helping diffuse the risk across different investors. The subprime malaise is mostly in the adjustable-rate segment, which accounts for 8.5 percent of outstanding mortgage debt, he added. Fisher說，由於很多抵押貸款是跟債券連結在一起，這可以幫助分散不同投資者 的風險，所以次級房貸的問題僅是局部的。他補充到，對於次級房貸的顧慮主要來自 採浮動利率的部分，這個部分佔了未清償抵押貸款的8.5%。 Delinquent Borrowers 違約的貸款人 Delinquencies on mortgages to subprime borrowers with limited or weak credit rose to 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter, a 3 1/2-year high. Congress is considering regulations to tighten lending standards, and lawmakers have criticized the Fed and other regulators in recent weeks for allowing too many borrowers to get mortgages they couldn't afford to repay. 信用不良的貸款人的抵押貸款違約率在第四季增加到13.3%，達到三年半來的新高 。國會在考慮立法緊縮貸款標準，同時立法者在最近幾個禮拜已對聯準會和其他負責 放款業務的人提出批評，認為她們讓太多根本無力還款的人把錢借出去。 ``By always bearing in mind the potential for policy makers to compound rather than solve problems, the Fed and other regulators are doing their level best to tread very carefully in dealing with the subprime situation,'' Fisher said. Fisher說，由於考慮到制訂政策的人往往只會把事情弄得更糟而從來無法解決問 題，聯準會以及其他放款單位正以非常慎重的態度在處理次級房貸的問題。 The U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.5 percent in the fourth\ quarter, the Commerce Department said last week in providing its third estimate. Growth, hobbled by slumps in home building and in corporate spending that show few signs of abating, was initially calculated at 3.5 percent for the period. 商業部門上禮拜在提出其評估結果時說，今年第四季，美國經濟正以2.5%的年成長 率在擴張。房屋建設與企業支出的減緩顯現一些經濟成長趨緩的訊號，因為前述兩個問 題而受到壓抑的成長率初步估計在3.5%的水平。 ``The economy will grow somewhat more slowly because of the correction in the housing market,'' Fisher said. ``Other pistons in our economic engine, particularly consumption, continue pumping.'' Consumer spending added 2.9 percentage points to growth last quarter. 費雪表示，由於房市的修正，經濟的成長會稍微放緩，而其他美國經濟引擎的活塞 ，特別是消費，正持續地擴張。根據顯示，消費者支出上一季成長了2.9的百分點。 No Action 按兵不動 Fisher suggested that the Fed wouldn't act to halt a decline in property values. ``Our job in this regard is to be very careful that any meltdown in any sector does not infect the entire system,'' Fisher said in response to a question. ``I don't think we should be in the business of focusing on any one asset class. I don't think we should be in the business of making markets happy. If we do our job, then the markets will be happy.'' Fisher建議，聯準會不該為了止住資產價值衰退而做出反應，同時他在回應問題時 也提到：「聯準會的工作是要非常小心地處理，讓任何一個小部分的衰退不至於影響到 整個體系。我認為我們不應該忙於關注任何單一種資產，我認為我們不應該忙於讓市場 感到開心，如果我們做好我們的工作，市場自然就會因此獲得好處。」 The former money manager said ``the subprime situation may well be a blessing in disguise'' because it may prompt lenders to discipline their practices. He said he expected the market to swiftly punish ``those who pressed the limits of imprudence or suffered selective amnesia.'' 先前的貨幣管理者表示，次級房貸的情況可能會被導入樂觀的結果，因為那個問題 促使放款者重新檢視她們的業務，他期待市場會很快地讓那些不夠謹慎或有選擇性失憶 症的人受到懲罰。 __________________________以上 文章結束____________________________________ 老實說我本來是認為聯準會很快就會降息 同時空頭市場也準備要來了 但是看到這篇文章之後我的想法稍有改變 首先 我覺得今年聯準會可能都不會降息 在原物料價格都這麼高的情況下 即使通膨水平逐漸回到2%以下的舒適區間 聯準會大概也不會立刻放寬銀根 也就是說 要聯準會心甘情願地降息 一方面通膨水平要回到舒適區間內一段期間 另一方面還要原物料與能源價格降下來 其次 雖然聯準會降息之日還有得等(至少我這麼認為) 但還是要小心美元會貶值 因為現在怕的是 即使原物料價格沒有降 然而當美國通膨水平越來越接近2%或低於2%時 市場的預期心理還是有可能打擊美元的 最後 反正美國景氣還有一波可以走 在他真正降息以前都是看多的局面 所以今年全球股市應該還有看頭 我倒是覺得美國降息比較可怕 尤其今年以來漸漸可看到新興亞洲的走勢與美國脫鉤的情形 這也許是好事 意味著地球上開始有些地區 其股市不會因美股的不確定因素而波動太大 當然 不包括自視甚高卻老是跟著美股起伏的歐洲國家 ^^ ※ 引述《drewlin (小卓..)》之銘言： : (不是針對原po) : 我覺得板上時常出現 "已經在高點了" 或 "太高了" : 雖然提供給大家居高思危的意識 : 但看看過去2003~2004新興市場或歐元匯率 是否在04年底就覺得高點已到? : 接著看2003~2005 是否在05年底時覺得06年不會再像過去如此大豐收? : 時間過去了 證明高點還可以在更高 : 純粹一點心得 上上禮拜覺得拉美漲回來速度太快了 所以不太敢進場 : 結果這個禮拜還是在往上爬 還有歐元賣價44的時候 我就認為還會繼續往上爬 : 所以先儲備了一些 那時候也有一些朋友都跟我說"現在太高，過幾天在看看" : 結果呢? 現在要44.5以上了 : 所以重點還是自己怎麼去看待整個局勢 : 如果ECB還有打算繼續升息 那歐元應該還有看頭 : 如果該地區P/E仍低 或許還具有投資價值 : 如果不太了解我在說什麼的 可以找一隻歷史悠久一點的基金 : 看他過去績效或是淨值的變化 你大概就會懂了 : 高不高 低不低 只是一段時間內的比較而已 --

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