藉这篇文章发表一下意见好了 ^^ 首先贴一份前几天在彭博社看到的新闻 已经看过这份报导的就跳过新闻的部分 直接批阅最後面我写的感想 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=asDdu6RDxcb4&refer=economy Fed's Fisher Says Subprime Damage Mostly Contained (Update3) 联准会的费雪表示次级房贷的伤害大致已获得控制 April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said damage from the U.S. subprime mortgage market is mostly contained and central bankers are trying to ``tread very carefully'' in response. 联准会达拉斯银行总裁Richard费雪表示，次级房贷市场带来的伤害已大致稳定下 来，同时央行成员们正非常小心地一步步处理以因应此一问题。 ``Regulatory agencies are working hard to avoid causing an overreaction with credit standards that would needlessly cause too much of a slowdown in housing or the overall economy,'' Fisher said in a speech today to the Austin Mortgage Bankers Association in Texas. Fisher在今天对奥斯丁负贷款银行协会的演讲中说，负责调控贷款问题的机关正努 力地避免因放款标准的调整而造成市场过度反应，才不至於造成太大的房市萎缩甚至是 整体经济的趋缓。 While the housing industry will likely hold down growth, consumer spending continues to sustain the economy, he said. The central bank's job isn't to bail out particular industries, Fisher added. He said he's ``very happy'' with the Fed's stance of leaving interest rates unchanged while keeping inflation as its main concern. Fisher说，尽管房屋产业将来可能停止成长，消费者支出依然支撑着经济。他补充 道，央行的任务不是要为特定产业护航，他非常乐於见到联准会一方面以控制通膨为己 任、另一方面又维持其利率水平不变的立场。 ``The damage from the subprime market has been largely contained,'' Fisher said. ``Fortunately, the financial system and the economy are strong enough to weather this storm.'' Fisher提到，次级房贷市场造成的伤害已经大大地获得控制，幸运的是，财政系统 与经济皆坚实得足以承受这场风暴。 Speaking with reporters after the speech, Fisher said he was ``hopeful'' that inflation will moderate. It remains ``too high,'' he added. 会後Fisher与记者们谈话时表示，他非常希望通膨将来能慢慢缓和下来，目前通膨 仍然太高。 The Fed's preferred inflation benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, has been at or above the top of the comfort zone articulated by at least six Fed officials for almost three years. It rose 2.4 percent for the year in February. 至少有六位联准会的成员曾清楚表示，联准会偏好的通膨水平，亦即扣除食物与能 源的核心消费物价指数（CPI），这三年来都介於、甚或高於理想的区域，通膨水平在 二月已经高到2.4%。 Fed Statement 联准会声明 The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on March 21 to keep the overnight lending rate between banks at 5.25 percent, the level it's been at since June. The Fed dropped reference to the chance of ``additional firming'' in rates, while stating that inflation was the ``predominant concern.'' The next meeting is on May 9. 联准会於3月21号采不记名投票的方式，决议银行间隔夜拆帐利率维持在5.25%不变 ，这个水平自从去年六月以来便没有改变。联准会在说明通膨为其首要考量时也无意间 透露出可能「再次紧缩」银根的可能性。 ``I'm very happy with where we are and I'm very happy with the way the statement stated what we discussed,'' Fisher said. By comparison, St. Louis Fed President William Poole, said earlier this week that the March 21 statement wasn't entirely successful because economists had differing interpretations. Fisher说：「对於我们现在所处的情况我很乐观，也很乐於见到声明稿陈述的方式 。」相较之下，圣路易银行的总裁William Poole稍早时则表示，3月21号的声明稿并非 完全成功的，因为经济学家对於其内容有不同的诠释。 Fisher said that subprime problems are limited in part because many mortgages were packaged into bonds, helping diffuse the risk across different investors. The subprime malaise is mostly in the adjustable-rate segment, which accounts for 8.5 percent of outstanding mortgage debt, he added. Fisher说，由於很多抵押贷款是跟债券连结在一起，这可以帮助分散不同投资者 的风险，所以次级房贷的问题仅是局部的。他补充到，对於次级房贷的顾虑主要来自 采浮动利率的部分，这个部分占了未清偿抵押贷款的8.5%。 Delinquent Borrowers 违约的贷款人 Delinquencies on mortgages to subprime borrowers with limited or weak credit rose to 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter, a 3 1/2-year high. Congress is considering regulations to tighten lending standards, and lawmakers have criticized the Fed and other regulators in recent weeks for allowing too many borrowers to get mortgages they couldn't afford to repay. 信用不良的贷款人的抵押贷款违约率在第四季增加到13.3%，达到三年半来的新高 。国会在考虑立法紧缩贷款标准，同时立法者在最近几个礼拜已对联准会和其他负责 放款业务的人提出批评，认为她们让太多根本无力还款的人把钱借出去。 ``By always bearing in mind the potential for policy makers to compound rather than solve problems, the Fed and other regulators are doing their level best to tread very carefully in dealing with the subprime situation,'' Fisher said. Fisher说，由於考虑到制订政策的人往往只会把事情弄得更糟而从来无法解决问 题，联准会以及其他放款单位正以非常慎重的态度在处理次级房贷的问题。 The U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.5 percent in the fourth\ quarter, the Commerce Department said last week in providing its third estimate. Growth, hobbled by slumps in home building and in corporate spending that show few signs of abating, was initially calculated at 3.5 percent for the period. 商业部门上礼拜在提出其评估结果时说，今年第四季，美国经济正以2.5%的年成长 率在扩张。房屋建设与企业支出的减缓显现一些经济成长趋缓的讯号，因为前述两个问 题而受到压抑的成长率初步估计在3.5%的水平。 ``The economy will grow somewhat more slowly because of the correction in the housing market,'' Fisher said. ``Other pistons in our economic engine, particularly consumption, continue pumping.'' Consumer spending added 2.9 percentage points to growth last quarter. 费雪表示，由於房市的修正，经济的成长会稍微放缓，而其他美国经济引擎的活塞 ，特别是消费，正持续地扩张。根据显示，消费者支出上一季成长了2.9的百分点。 No Action 按兵不动 Fisher suggested that the Fed wouldn't act to halt a decline in property values. ``Our job in this regard is to be very careful that any meltdown in any sector does not infect the entire system,'' Fisher said in response to a question. ``I don't think we should be in the business of focusing on any one asset class. I don't think we should be in the business of making markets happy. If we do our job, then the markets will be happy.'' Fisher建议，联准会不该为了止住资产价值衰退而做出反应，同时他在回应问题时 也提到：「联准会的工作是要非常小心地处理，让任何一个小部分的衰退不至於影响到 整个体系。我认为我们不应该忙於关注任何单一种资产，我认为我们不应该忙於让市场 感到开心，如果我们做好我们的工作，市场自然就会因此获得好处。」 The former money manager said ``the subprime situation may well be a blessing in disguise'' because it may prompt lenders to discipline their practices. He said he expected the market to swiftly punish ``those who pressed the limits of imprudence or suffered selective amnesia.'' 先前的货币管理者表示，次级房贷的情况可能会被导入乐观的结果，因为那个问题 促使放款者重新检视她们的业务，他期待市场会很快地让那些不够谨慎或有选择性失忆 症的人受到惩罚。 __________________________以上 文章结束____________________________________ 老实说我本来是认为联准会很快就会降息 同时空头市场也准备要来了 但是看到这篇文章之後我的想法稍有改变 首先 我觉得今年联准会可能都不会降息 在原物料价格都这麽高的情况下 即使通膨水平逐渐回到2%以下的舒适区间 联准会大概也不会立刻放宽银根 也就是说 要联准会心甘情愿地降息 一方面通膨水平要回到舒适区间内一段期间 另一方面还要原物料与能源价格降下来 其次 虽然联准会降息之日还有得等(至少我这麽认为) 但还是要小心美元会贬值 因为现在怕的是 即使原物料价格没有降 然而当美国通膨水平越来越接近2%或低於2%时 市场的预期心理还是有可能打击美元的 最後 反正美国景气还有一波可以走 在他真正降息以前都是看多的局面 所以今年全球股市应该还有看头 我倒是觉得美国降息比较可怕 尤其今年以来渐渐可看到新兴亚洲的走势与美国脱钩的情形 这也许是好事 意味着地球上开始有些地区 其股市不会因美股的不确定因素而波动太大 当然 不包括自视甚高却老是跟着美股起伏的欧洲国家 ^^ ※ 引述《drewlin (小卓..)》之铭言： : (不是针对原po) : 我觉得板上时常出现 "已经在高点了" 或 "太高了" : 虽然提供给大家居高思危的意识 : 但看看过去2003~2004新兴市场或欧元汇率 是否在04年底就觉得高点已到? : 接着看2003~2005 是否在05年底时觉得06年不会再像过去如此大丰收? : 时间过去了 证明高点还可以在更高 : 纯粹一点心得 上上礼拜觉得拉美涨回来速度太快了 所以不太敢进场 : 结果这个礼拜还是在往上爬 还有欧元卖价44的时候 我就认为还会继续往上爬 : 所以先储备了一些 那时候也有一些朋友都跟我说"现在太高，过几天在看看" : 结果呢? 现在要44.5以上了 : 所以重点还是自己怎麽去看待整个局势 : 如果ECB还有打算继续升息 那欧元应该还有看头 : 如果该地区P/E仍低 或许还具有投资价值 : 如果不太了解我在说什麽的 可以找一只历史悠久一点的基金 : 看他过去绩效或是净值的变化 你大概就会懂了 : 高不高 低不低 只是一段时间内的比较而已 --

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