※ [本文轉錄自 FCU_Talk 看板] 作者: loveadan (冷情魅燕) 看板: FCU_Talk 標題: [考題] [作業研究][徐沅錫][95下期末考] 時間: Tue Jul 10 19:05:35 2007 [作業研究][徐沅錫][95下期末考] 一、您寫了一本小說，可以自己發行或把版權賣給書商，您的所得如下： ┌──────┬───────┬────────┐ꈊ │ꈠ │ 書賣的好 │ 書賣的不好 │ ├──────┼───────┼────────┤ꈊ │ 自己發行 │$ 1,000,000 │ -$200,000 │ ├──────┼───────┼────────┤ꈊ │版權賣給書商│ $ 500,000 │ $500,000 │ └──────┴───────┴────────┘ꈊ 根據過去經驗，此類小說，在市場上賣的好與不好的機率為60%與40%，但在您決定前 可以花$50,000請一80%可靠之書評或花$300,000請一100%可靠之書評先看過您的書並 告訴您您的書會賣的好或是不好，您的最佳決策為何？ 二、Truck using a single channel loading dock arrive accorive according to a Poisson probability distribution with a mean rate of 14 trucks per day. The time required to load/unload follows an exponential probability dis- tribution with a mean time of 1 hour per truck (or 24 trucks per day in average). Find the followings： a) What is the probability that there are exactly 8 trucks arrived in one day. b) What is the probability that a special truck requires less than 1 hour to load/unload? c) What is the probability that a truck must wait for load/unload after arrived? d) In average, how much time trucks need to waite before being load/unload? e) What percentage of time the loading dock is idle? 三、The ABC Electronics Inc. is attempting to determine which of the following 8 projects should be conducted. Expense Management Estimated Project Needed(in$) Scientist required Profit(in$) ────────────────────────────────── 1ꈠ $ 60,000 7 $ 36,000 2 110,000 9 82,000 3 53,000 8 29,000 4 47,000 2 16,000 5 92,000 7 57,000 6 85,000 6 61,000 7 73,000 3 48,000 8 65,000 5 41,000 The company is constrained by the number of available management scientists (40) and the total budget available for the projects($300,000). Furthermor; a) if project 4is selected, project 5 must be also be selected. b) project 1 and project 8 can not be implemented at the same time. Formulate a mathematical programming model for this problem to find the op- timal solution. 四、A project with the following information： Immediate Estimated Completion Time ──────────────────── Activity Predecessors Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic ─────────────────────────────────── A - 1 2 3 B - 2 3 4 C A 1 2 3 D B 2 4 6 E C 1 4 7 F C 1 2 9 G D,E 3 4 11 H F,G 1 2 3 (1) Find the critical path.(must draw the network and compute the slack times) (2) Explain the project completion time distribution. (3) If the project starts at time 0, what is the probability that the project that the project will be completed before time 16? (4) If you want to have 95% probability that the project will be completed time 16, how much ahead you must move your starting time? 五、One of the severs at WebServe Inc. goes on and down too often from hour to hour. The current situation is that if the server is on this hour, it has a 30% chance goes down next hour. If it is down this hour, it has a 20% still down next hour. Use simulation method to determine how often the server is down. Requirements：a) simulate 1000 hour, b) a flowchart, c) a computer program of any language based on your flowchart, and assumes the server is on initially. ＊五題任選四題寫，全部答對共125分。 　除了字典，其餘皆可使用。(open book) ────────────────────────────────────── 聽說這個老師愛考考古題，果然不錯哩!!! 這一次的期末考，聽說和上一屆的考題幾乎類似...... 不過考古題絕對不能在老師面前看唷!~~~ 被他發現~~考古題可就行不通哩!~~~ --

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