※ [本文转录自 FCU_Talk 看板] 作者: loveadan (冷情魅燕) 看板: FCU_Talk 标题: [考题] [作业研究][徐沅锡][95下期末考] 时间: Tue Jul 10 19:05:35 2007 [作业研究][徐沅锡][95下期末考] 一、您写了一本小说，可以自己发行或把版权卖给书商，您的所得如下： ┌──────┬───────┬────────┐ꈊ │ꈠ │ 书卖的好 │ 书卖的不好 │ ├──────┼───────┼────────┤ꈊ │ 自己发行 │$ 1,000,000 │ -$200,000 │ ├──────┼───────┼────────┤ꈊ │版权卖给书商│ $ 500,000 │ $500,000 │ └──────┴───────┴────────┘ꈊ 根据过去经验，此类小说，在市场上卖的好与不好的机率为60%与40%，但在您决定前 可以花$50,000请一80%可靠之书评或花$300,000请一100%可靠之书评先看过您的书并 告诉您您的书会卖的好或是不好，您的最佳决策为何？ 二、Truck using a single channel loading dock arrive accorive according to a Poisson probability distribution with a mean rate of 14 trucks per day. The time required to load/unload follows an exponential probability dis- tribution with a mean time of 1 hour per truck (or 24 trucks per day in average). Find the followings： a) What is the probability that there are exactly 8 trucks arrived in one day. b) What is the probability that a special truck requires less than 1 hour to load/unload? c) What is the probability that a truck must wait for load/unload after arrived? d) In average, how much time trucks need to waite before being load/unload? e) What percentage of time the loading dock is idle? 三、The ABC Electronics Inc. is attempting to determine which of the following 8 projects should be conducted. Expense Management Estimated Project Needed(in$) Scientist required Profit(in$) ────────────────────────────────── 1ꈠ $ 60,000 7 $ 36,000 2 110,000 9 82,000 3 53,000 8 29,000 4 47,000 2 16,000 5 92,000 7 57,000 6 85,000 6 61,000 7 73,000 3 48,000 8 65,000 5 41,000 The company is constrained by the number of available management scientists (40) and the total budget available for the projects($300,000). Furthermor; a) if project 4is selected, project 5 must be also be selected. b) project 1 and project 8 can not be implemented at the same time. Formulate a mathematical programming model for this problem to find the op- timal solution. 四、A project with the following information： Immediate Estimated Completion Time ──────────────────── Activity Predecessors Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic ─────────────────────────────────── A - 1 2 3 B - 2 3 4 C A 1 2 3 D B 2 4 6 E C 1 4 7 F C 1 2 9 G D,E 3 4 11 H F,G 1 2 3 (1) Find the critical path.(must draw the network and compute the slack times) (2) Explain the project completion time distribution. (3) If the project starts at time 0, what is the probability that the project that the project will be completed before time 16? (4) If you want to have 95% probability that the project will be completed time 16, how much ahead you must move your starting time? 五、One of the severs at WebServe Inc. goes on and down too often from hour to hour. The current situation is that if the server is on this hour, it has a 30% chance goes down next hour. If it is down this hour, it has a 20% still down next hour. Use simulation method to determine how often the server is down. Requirements：a) simulate 1000 hour, b) a flowchart, c) a computer program of any language based on your flowchart, and assumes the server is on initially. ＊五题任选四题写，全部答对共125分。 　除了字典，其余皆可使用。(open book) ────────────────────────────────────── 听说这个老师爱考考古题，果然不错哩!!! 这一次的期末考，听说和上一届的考题几乎类似...... 不过考古题绝对不能在老师面前看唷!~~~ 被他发现~~考古题可就行不通哩!~~~ --

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