Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox Floyd won 17 games with a 3.84 ERA in 2008, and as a result he was overvalued by many heading into '09. Alas, he hasn't performed anywhere near last year's levels in the traditional measures. He is 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. Do the underlying numbers tell a different story? Let's take a look. 2008: 6.32 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB 2009: 7.11 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 1.52 K/BB Though his K-rate is up, that walk rate has exploded, and last year's barely passable K/BB mark has regressed substantially to a dangerous level. Unless he significantly cuts back his walk rate, there is little to hang one's hat on if a rebound is being hoped for. 2008: .268 BABIP, 1.31 HR/9, G/F 1.04 2009: .375 BABIP, 1.22 HR/9, G/F 1.09 The first reaction would be to look at the increase in his BABIP and say "his current number will regress since it is more than .100 points above last years' mark." Well, it should regress since .375 is ridiculously high, but it will not approach last year's number, which was the ninth-best mark in baseball. In fact, if we look at his career mark, it's .299, which just so happens to be smack on the major league average. As for his HR/9 (which is actually a career low 11.1% right now) and G/F rates, it is clear that he allows a few too many fly balls, and as a result his ERA will always be subject to fluctuation. Verdict: Eight starts into the year people are bailing, as well they should be, but hopefully you avoided this whole situation and didn't even bother rostering him this season unless he fell really late in your draft. Of course, Floyd will rebound from where his numbers currently are, but the upside isn't likely to approach his levels of production from last season. So, like others on this list, there is no reason to rush out to add him to your roster right now. Gavin Floyd去年的17W讓人對他的實力有點高估，讓我們來看看他到底出了什麼問題。 跟08年比起來，他的K率其實還上升，所以關鍵在於他那爆炸性上升的BB%。另外他的BABIP 是荒謬的.375，我知道你會說，看吧!他去年的BABIP是.268，只要他BABIP回到去年的水準 ，那就沒問題了。錯!大錯特錯!他現在的BABIP是太高沒錯，但他去年的BABIP也過低，那 是全MLB第九名的成績。另外他被擊出的飛球比例也偏高，這對ERA絕對不是好事。 總評:首先，希望你根本就沒有選到這個年輕人。如果你有的話，那我跟你說，他的成績 絕對會比現在好(還能比這更差?)，但是我們過去就說過他去年的成績不合理的好， 所以他的反彈力道相信也是有限的。因此如果Floyd現在沒有在你的球員名單中， 那就別麻煩了，讓他繼續躺在FA吧。 -- 更多亂七八糟的Fantasy Baseball News http://www.wretch.cc/blog/moneyball --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.192.192.222 ※ 編輯: charliee 來自: 123.192.192.222 (05/24 20:14)