Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox Floyd won 17 games with a 3.84 ERA in 2008, and as a result he was overvalued by many heading into '09. Alas, he hasn't performed anywhere near last year's levels in the traditional measures. He is 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. Do the underlying numbers tell a different story? Let's take a look. 2008: 6.32 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB 2009: 7.11 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 1.52 K/BB Though his K-rate is up, that walk rate has exploded, and last year's barely passable K/BB mark has regressed substantially to a dangerous level. Unless he significantly cuts back his walk rate, there is little to hang one's hat on if a rebound is being hoped for. 2008: .268 BABIP, 1.31 HR/9, G/F 1.04 2009: .375 BABIP, 1.22 HR/9, G/F 1.09 The first reaction would be to look at the increase in his BABIP and say "his current number will regress since it is more than .100 points above last years' mark." Well, it should regress since .375 is ridiculously high, but it will not approach last year's number, which was the ninth-best mark in baseball. In fact, if we look at his career mark, it's .299, which just so happens to be smack on the major league average. As for his HR/9 (which is actually a career low 11.1% right now) and G/F rates, it is clear that he allows a few too many fly balls, and as a result his ERA will always be subject to fluctuation. Verdict: Eight starts into the year people are bailing, as well they should be, but hopefully you avoided this whole situation and didn't even bother rostering him this season unless he fell really late in your draft. Of course, Floyd will rebound from where his numbers currently are, but the upside isn't likely to approach his levels of production from last season. So, like others on this list, there is no reason to rush out to add him to your roster right now. Gavin Floyd去年的17W让人对他的实力有点高估，让我们来看看他到底出了什麽问题。 跟08年比起来，他的K率其实还上升，所以关键在於他那爆炸性上升的BB%。另外他的BABIP 是荒谬的.375，我知道你会说，看吧!他去年的BABIP是.268，只要他BABIP回到去年的水准 ，那就没问题了。错!大错特错!他现在的BABIP是太高没错，但他去年的BABIP也过低，那 是全MLB第九名的成绩。另外他被击出的飞球比例也偏高，这对ERA绝对不是好事。 总评:首先，希望你根本就没有选到这个年轻人。如果你有的话，那我跟你说，他的成绩 绝对会比现在好(还能比这更差?)，但是我们过去就说过他去年的成绩不合理的好， 所以他的反弹力道相信也是有限的。因此如果Floyd现在没有在你的球员名单中， 那就别麻烦了，让他继续躺在FA吧。 -- 更多乱七八糟的Fantasy Baseball News http://www.wretch.cc/blog/moneyball --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.192.192.222 ※ 编辑: charliee 来自: 123.192.192.222 (05/24 20:14)