http://ppt.cc/7Bl9 來自洋基球探網站 If Masahiro Tanaka translates like Yu Darvish I haven’t run a real 2014 projection yet for Masahiro Tanaka because I generally wait until I have a more comprehensive list of players who could be moving over from Japan to MLB, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start playing around with some crude ways to estimate how his performance in Japan would translate to the majors. So for this first quick and dirty iteration, I just took a 3/2/1 weighted average of what Yu Darvish did in his last three seasons in Japan and compared it to his average over his first two MLB seasons, pro-rated to match his MLB innings. 目前還沒有針對田中將大做2014年預測，但仍可以根據與達比修在日本數據之間 的比較看出一些端倪。擷取達比修最後3年在日職的數據與在MLB前2年數據， 藉此推敲田中將大在MLB的數據預估。 Here are the main things to look at. Hits: 1.07 R: 1.9 ER: 2.1 HR: 4 BB: 2.2 SO: 1.11 HBP: 1.5 These are the ratios of his MLB stats to his Japanese stats over the same number of innings. For example, he allowed home runs at a rate four times greater than he did in Japan. What’s interesting is his strikeout rate went up pretty significantly, but as you’d expect everything else was worse. 以下為2者比較 基本上數據到大聯盟都會變比較差 So here are four sets of stat lines to peruse. Stat IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP 達比修最後3年NPB平均數據 Darvish 200 141 40 35 5 39 225 1.81 1.59 1.87 達比修前2年MLB平均數據 Darvish 200 151 79 75 20 85 249 3.52 3.34 3.31 田中最後3年NPB平均數據 Tanaka 174 143 33 28 5 23 163 1.69 1.44 2.07 預測田中大聯盟數據 Tanaka 174 153 64 59 20 50 181 3.28 3.04 3.45 As nice as Tanaka’s statistical performance appears to translate, I’d have concerns about a few things. First of all is that I don’t think there’s any question that Darvish has a better fastball than Tanaka. Tanaka supposedly sits in the low 90s and his fastball is straight. He’s been successful thanks to his secondary pitches, primarily his splitter and his slider. If he can’t use his fastball to set those pitches up, then they’re likely to be less effective against the best hitters on the planet. Second of all, most pitchers who’ve come over from Japan have not had the same level of success in making the transition that Darvish has had thus far. It’ s also worth noting that Tanaka’s FIP is a bit higher than Darvish’s even though his R/ER translate better. 第一，達比修無疑比田中擁有更好的速球，田中速球均速落在90初mph，田中之所以成功， 要感謝他的第2顆球種，主要是指叉及滑球。如果他不能將速球控制好，面對大聯盟打者 將會較沒效率;第二，目前從日本過來的投手，沒有人比達比修更成功的了，值得注意的是 田中的FIP較達比修高，雖然他的R/ER比較好看。 On the plus side, Tanaka exhibited better control than Darvish. The last time I ran my translations for a larger population of pitchers, I found that MLB strikeout rate was 0.82 of Japan’s. If we assume that’s a more realistic scenario for Tanaka, then you’re probably looking at 148 strikeouts instead of 181 and a FIP of 3.75. 另外，田中控球似乎比達比修好。 從數據顯示，大聯盟三振率為日職的0.82倍，預估田中應有148次三振及FIP=3.75 It’s probably worth noting that both pitchers pitched in Japan’s Pacific League, which does use a designated hitter. So at the very least we don’t have to worry about a hidden advantage in Tanaka’s line. I guess it’s also worth nothing that Darvish’s increase in home run rate is anomalously high relative to other pitchers who’ve crossed over. The Yankees need to add talent to the organization, and ideally they should do it in a way that doesn’t cost them other avenues of doing so. Winning a posting for Tanaka and signing him would not cost them a draft pick and would have less impact on their payroll for luxury tax purposes. But he also carries the risk of not being worth the total cost he will command. But if he ’s a bust, he just costs them money and a few wins. 田中所處的聯盟也是有DH制度的，所以比較少我們看不見一些advantage 但達比修增長的被HR率也是相當高的(比起其他日職投手過海而來的) 洋基必須增加一些有天分的球員，聰明作法就是他們應該要去搶(既不會喪失選秀權 入札金又不算入豪華稅)，但仍然是一個風險賭注。 -- 其他有關田中的球探報告 1.http://ppt.cc/6FH9 2.Bleacher Report:Is Japanese Ace Masahiro Tanaka Worth All the Hype? http://ppt.cc/bV7p 3.天使LAA: http://ppt.cc/cBwN http://ppt.cc/uCgq http://ppt.cc/3fo5 4.洋基NYY:http://ppt.cc/WVV3 http://ppt.cc/Cokm http://ppt.cc/h7-Z 5.藍鳥TOR:http://ppt.cc/0JKJ 6.紅襪BOS:http://ppt.cc/O4Xz 7.道奇LAD:http://ppt.cc/WX3y http://ppt.cc/~-pZ 8.小熊CHC:http://ppt.cc/E~1o 9.大都會NYM:http://ppt.cc/AaGv -- 因為找達爾的東西 整個月只找到一堆田中 @@ 順手整理一下 喜歡田中的可以自己去看看喔~ --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.32.222.155 ※ 編輯: anijen 來自: 163.32.222.155 (10/28 16:28)