http://ppt.cc/7Bl9 来自洋基球探网站 If Masahiro Tanaka translates like Yu Darvish I haven’t run a real 2014 projection yet for Masahiro Tanaka because I generally wait until I have a more comprehensive list of players who could be moving over from Japan to MLB, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start playing around with some crude ways to estimate how his performance in Japan would translate to the majors. So for this first quick and dirty iteration, I just took a 3/2/1 weighted average of what Yu Darvish did in his last three seasons in Japan and compared it to his average over his first two MLB seasons, pro-rated to match his MLB innings. 目前还没有针对田中将大做2014年预测，但仍可以根据与达比修在日本数据之间 的比较看出一些端倪。撷取达比修最後3年在日职的数据与在MLB前2年数据， 藉此推敲田中将大在MLB的数据预估。 Here are the main things to look at. Hits: 1.07 R: 1.9 ER: 2.1 HR: 4 BB: 2.2 SO: 1.11 HBP: 1.5 These are the ratios of his MLB stats to his Japanese stats over the same number of innings. For example, he allowed home runs at a rate four times greater than he did in Japan. What’s interesting is his strikeout rate went up pretty significantly, but as you’d expect everything else was worse. 以下为2者比较 基本上数据到大联盟都会变比较差 So here are four sets of stat lines to peruse. Stat IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP 达比修最後3年NPB平均数据 Darvish 200 141 40 35 5 39 225 1.81 1.59 1.87 达比修前2年MLB平均数据 Darvish 200 151 79 75 20 85 249 3.52 3.34 3.31 田中最後3年NPB平均数据 Tanaka 174 143 33 28 5 23 163 1.69 1.44 2.07 预测田中大联盟数据 Tanaka 174 153 64 59 20 50 181 3.28 3.04 3.45 As nice as Tanaka’s statistical performance appears to translate, I’d have concerns about a few things. First of all is that I don’t think there’s any question that Darvish has a better fastball than Tanaka. Tanaka supposedly sits in the low 90s and his fastball is straight. He’s been successful thanks to his secondary pitches, primarily his splitter and his slider. If he can’t use his fastball to set those pitches up, then they’re likely to be less effective against the best hitters on the planet. Second of all, most pitchers who’ve come over from Japan have not had the same level of success in making the transition that Darvish has had thus far. It’ s also worth noting that Tanaka’s FIP is a bit higher than Darvish’s even though his R/ER translate better. 第一，达比修无疑比田中拥有更好的速球，田中速球均速落在90初mph，田中之所以成功， 要感谢他的第2颗球种，主要是指叉及滑球。如果他不能将速球控制好，面对大联盟打者 将会较没效率;第二，目前从日本过来的投手，没有人比达比修更成功的了，值得注意的是 田中的FIP较达比修高，虽然他的R/ER比较好看。 On the plus side, Tanaka exhibited better control than Darvish. The last time I ran my translations for a larger population of pitchers, I found that MLB strikeout rate was 0.82 of Japan’s. If we assume that’s a more realistic scenario for Tanaka, then you’re probably looking at 148 strikeouts instead of 181 and a FIP of 3.75. 另外，田中控球似乎比达比修好。 从数据显示，大联盟三振率为日职的0.82倍，预估田中应有148次三振及FIP=3.75 It’s probably worth noting that both pitchers pitched in Japan’s Pacific League, which does use a designated hitter. So at the very least we don’t have to worry about a hidden advantage in Tanaka’s line. I guess it’s also worth nothing that Darvish’s increase in home run rate is anomalously high relative to other pitchers who’ve crossed over. The Yankees need to add talent to the organization, and ideally they should do it in a way that doesn’t cost them other avenues of doing so. Winning a posting for Tanaka and signing him would not cost them a draft pick and would have less impact on their payroll for luxury tax purposes. But he also carries the risk of not being worth the total cost he will command. But if he ’s a bust, he just costs them money and a few wins. 田中所处的联盟也是有DH制度的，所以比较少我们看不见一些advantage 但达比修增长的被HR率也是相当高的(比起其他日职投手过海而来的) 洋基必须增加一些有天分的球员，聪明作法就是他们应该要去抢(既不会丧失选秀权 入札金又不算入豪华税)，但仍然是一个风险赌注。 -- 其他有关田中的球探报告 1.http://ppt.cc/6FH9 2.Bleacher Report:Is Japanese Ace Masahiro Tanaka Worth All the Hype? http://ppt.cc/bV7p 3.天使LAA: http://ppt.cc/cBwN http://ppt.cc/uCgq http://ppt.cc/3fo5 4.洋基NYY:http://ppt.cc/WVV3 http://ppt.cc/Cokm http://ppt.cc/h7-Z 5.蓝鸟TOR:http://ppt.cc/0JKJ 6.红袜BOS:http://ppt.cc/O4Xz 7.道奇LAD:http://ppt.cc/WX3y http://ppt.cc/~-pZ 8.小熊CHC:http://ppt.cc/E~1o 9.大都会NYM:http://ppt.cc/AaGv -- 因为找达尔的东西 整个月只找到一堆田中 @@ 顺手整理一下 喜欢田中的可以自己去看看喔~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.32.222.155 ※ 编辑: anijen 来自: 163.32.222.155 (10/28 16:28)