※ 引述《yyhong68 (come every now and then)》之銘言： : 這一份是來自一個blog : 因為有表格但是很難貼 : 所以就只有PO文字部分 : Looking Ahead to 2007: Chien-Ming Wang 前進2007 : 王建民 : by SG : "For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to : career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to : notice that basketball players tend to be tall." "當一個棒球迷無法發現'三振率和生涯長度有密切的關係'時,我會說,這就像是在籃球場上 ,一個球迷沒發現球員大多長的非常高." : Bill James from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract : No one can deny that Chien-Ming Wang's career to this point has been : successful. However, his K rate has been historically low, which is : typically a poor indicator for career longevity. However, Wang has : one thing that the majority of low K pitchers did not have, and that's : top-shelf stuff. 沒有人可以否認小王到現在為止的表現算是十分成功.但是,他的三振率真是歷史性的低,而 這個狀況通常不是一個棒球員的生涯利多.不過,小王有著其他低三振率的投手所沒有的 東西--頂尖的stuff. : Wang's projections for 2007 aren't particularly good, mainly because : he's such a statistical anomaly. 對小王2007年的預測大多並不好,主要是因為他是個數據上的怪咖. : http://tinyurl.com/2y8kpc (2007 projections) 上面是07年的預測 : Wang was great last year, saving 28 runs above the average pitcher. The : projection systems think he's going to lose 20 runs of value, although : at least part of that is based on a projected shortfall of 40 innings. 小王去年表現得十分優異,比其他投手平均少掉了28分(RSAA--見註).預測系統認為他將要 少掉20分的價值,儘管部分是因為大家估計他會少投40局. 註:RSAA-Runs Saved Above Average 用來評估一個投手的效率和貢獻度,計算方式是:用投手的RA(每九局失分,包含責失跟非責 失)除以局數(IP),來減掉聯盟平均的RA/IP,再乘以局數.簡單地來說,這個指標會受到 "失分"和"局數"的影響. 參考棒球術語介紹THT Glossary http://0rz.tw/5b2wF : I do have concerns about Wang's health, because he went from a : career-high 150 innings in 2005 to 218 last season and because of : the rotator cuff scare in 2005, but he was strong all year so it may : not be that much of a concern. With the recent news of his hamstring : injury, I guess I should have been concerned. It sounds like Wang : shouldn't miss more than 2-3 starts thankfully. 我的確會擔心小王的健康--他從05年投的150局,到06年的生涯新高218局;並且還有他05年 旋轉肌的傷勢--但是他去年一整年都很健康,所以或許我們不必那麼擔心.不過前一陣子 傳來他大腿拉傷的傷勢,看來我之前應該注意這點的XD.不過還好聽說他只會錯過2-3場先發 而已. : To me, Wang fits a profile similar to Mariano Rivera. There are players : who operate in an area where projection systems designed for the : collective major league baseball population just won't work. I think : the Marcel projection is probably the fairest one because of that. 對我而言,小王和Mo有不少相似之處.那邊就是有些球員和MLB的"數據多數"背道而馳. 我覺得Marcel的預測(註:四人中最好的一個XD...RSAA=15)大概是當中最中肯的一個. : Wang has succeeded despite his low K rate because he does two other : things well. He has good control, and he keeps the ball in the park. : Opponents have slugged just .373 against Wang so far in his career. 儘管小王擁有很低的三振率,但是他依然已經獲得了成功--由於他另兩件事情幹得很好. 首先,他有很好的控球.此外,他能夠把球"留在場內"--小王生涯中對手的長打率只有0.373. : If he can continue to do that, he should be ok. Here's how Wang's ERA : and FIP tracked over 2006. (這個圖無法用tinyurl,so help youself) 如果他可以繼續辦到這些事,那麼他就能夠繼續在大聯盟混下去. : Wang outperformed his FIP this season, but not to a level that would : show he was extremely lucky in 2006. Wang's FIP of 3.96 ranked 15th among : ERA-qualified AL starters last season. 小王去年在FIP(註)上的表現也十分突出,但還沒到"十分幸運"的地步.(指的就是,作者並不 認為小王去年的表現算是他的大爆發--例如像是某些人合約年的表現XD)去年他的FIP在 大聯盟局數足夠的投手中排名第十五. 註:FIP,Fielding Independent Pitching 這個數據表達了一個投手在不考慮野手協助下,平均每局的投球狀況.計算方式有點複雜, 是把(全壘打數*13+保送數[含四壞跟觸身]*3-三振*2)這個數值再除以局數,最後加上一個 每季會有點差異的常數(大約3.2左右),以讓這個數值可以和ERA對照. 簡單地來說,假如一個投手 被全壘打越少(影響很大).保送越少.三振越多,在這個數值上就 會表現得越好.小王的三振並不多,他是靠著很少的被全壘打,以及很少的保送(好控球)而 使得他的FIP很優異.作者引用這個數據來表示,小王並不是只靠著隊友的防守和打擊才能 得到好成績. : One thing Wang's struggled with in his career to this point is pitching : on the road. Here are Wang's career Home/Road splits, including batted-ball : types. http://tinyurl.com/2cl9rt 小王到現在為止,表現比較不好的一項就是他在客場出戰的表現. (連結是小王在客場與主場表現的比較.) : For whatever reason, Wang gets a lower percentage of grounders on : the road. He gives up more fly balls and line drives as a result. : Wang's lefty-right splits are not as extreme as I thought they might be. : http://tinyurl.com/2396b5 不管是哪一季,小王在客場出戰的滾地球率都比較低.同時地,他就被打了比較多的飛球和 平飛安打.不過,他面對左右打的狀況倒沒有我想像的那麼極端.(連結是面對左右打的比較) : Lastly, these splits are pretty interesting to me. Here's how Wang : has done based on the # of outs. : http://tinyurl.com/ypzddu 最後,這些分析讓我覺得很有趣.這邊是小王面對不同出局數的表現. : Here's the link(http://tinyurl.com/yvhn4o) to the tables above for those : who can't see them on the blog. : For whatever reason, with two outs, Wang's K rate spikes up considerably. : This tells me he may have the skill to strike out batters more frequently : than he has to this point, but is comfortable with his current approach : since it's working. It's worth mentioning that even if you apply that : 12.2% K/BF to all his innings, it's still just a K rate of about 4.5 : per 9 innings. 不管是什麼理由,小王在兩出局後的三振率有顯著的提升.這件事告訴了我們,他或許擁有 不錯的三振技巧,只是他現在似乎在他"得"三振時才會送出三振.但是,既然現在這樣子 還不賴,那似乎也沒什麼需要改變的.額外一提,就算你把他在兩出局後的三振率套上所有 的狀況,那也只是個4.5左右的K/9而已. : I know what the numbers say, but I also know what I see when I watch : Wang pitch. Wang should be able to continue to succeed in the majors, : although he may have to make some adjustments along the way if his : current style stops working. I think he's talented enough to do that, : and I think he'll be fine, perhaps with some growing pains as he makes : those adjustments. 我知道數據在表達些什麼,但我也知道我看小王比賽時看到了些什麼.小王應該能夠繼續 在大聯盟享有著他的成功,儘管他一路上大概會需要一點調整--如果他現在這個模式出了 點問題的話.我想他應該有足夠的天賦去做到,而我也認為他可以表現得很好--大概不過是 在調整過程中會有點陣痛期罷了. : http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/ 這篇似乎也集合了不少的數據 不過要搞清楚那些評估公式真是令人頭痛XD 終於翻完了 也請大家指教嘍~ -- 翻譯外電有什麼功用呢? 賺P幣.學英文.拼優文和爆文....很多很多 但是 絕對不能少了一股passion--我翻外電 因為我愛 王建民 我愛 棒球 所以我在電腦前用生命翻譯 用生命愛小王 (謎之音:沒錯!) 如果你覺得我翻的有問題 那一定要告訴我 這是我進步的動力 如果你覺得我翻的很棒 那就請你X->1 然後告訴我你的感受或者是心裡的感動 我是翔魚 請大家多多指教~ --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 210.60.107.237 ※ 編輯: soaringfish 來自: 61.225.14.58 (03/28 23:42)