※ 引述《yyhong68 (come every now and then)》之铭言： : 这一份是来自一个blog : 因为有表格但是很难贴 : 所以就只有PO文字部分 : Looking Ahead to 2007: Chien-Ming Wang 前进2007 : 王建民 : by SG : "For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to : career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to : notice that basketball players tend to be tall." "当一个棒球迷无法发现'三振率和生涯长度有密切的关系'时,我会说,这就像是在篮球场上 ,一个球迷没发现球员大多长的非常高." : Bill James from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract : No one can deny that Chien-Ming Wang's career to this point has been : successful. However, his K rate has been historically low, which is : typically a poor indicator for career longevity. However, Wang has : one thing that the majority of low K pitchers did not have, and that's : top-shelf stuff. 没有人可以否认小王到现在为止的表现算是十分成功.但是,他的三振率真是历史性的低,而 这个状况通常不是一个棒球员的生涯利多.不过,小王有着其他低三振率的投手所没有的 东西--顶尖的stuff. : Wang's projections for 2007 aren't particularly good, mainly because : he's such a statistical anomaly. 对小王2007年的预测大多并不好,主要是因为他是个数据上的怪咖. : http://tinyurl.com/2y8kpc (2007 projections) 上面是07年的预测 : Wang was great last year, saving 28 runs above the average pitcher. The : projection systems think he's going to lose 20 runs of value, although : at least part of that is based on a projected shortfall of 40 innings. 小王去年表现得十分优异,比其他投手平均少掉了28分(RSAA--见注).预测系统认为他将要 少掉20分的价值,尽管部分是因为大家估计他会少投40局. 注:RSAA-Runs Saved Above Average 用来评估一个投手的效率和贡献度,计算方式是:用投手的RA(每九局失分,包含责失跟非责 失)除以局数(IP),来减掉联盟平均的RA/IP,再乘以局数.简单地来说,这个指标会受到 "失分"和"局数"的影响. 参考棒球术语介绍THT Glossary http://0rz.tw/5b2wF : I do have concerns about Wang's health, because he went from a : career-high 150 innings in 2005 to 218 last season and because of : the rotator cuff scare in 2005, but he was strong all year so it may : not be that much of a concern. With the recent news of his hamstring : injury, I guess I should have been concerned. It sounds like Wang : shouldn't miss more than 2-3 starts thankfully. 我的确会担心小王的健康--他从05年投的150局,到06年的生涯新高218局;并且还有他05年 旋转肌的伤势--但是他去年一整年都很健康,所以或许我们不必那麽担心.不过前一阵子 传来他大腿拉伤的伤势,看来我之前应该注意这点的XD.不过还好听说他只会错过2-3场先发 而已. : To me, Wang fits a profile similar to Mariano Rivera. There are players : who operate in an area where projection systems designed for the : collective major league baseball population just won't work. I think : the Marcel projection is probably the fairest one because of that. 对我而言,小王和Mo有不少相似之处.那边就是有些球员和MLB的"数据多数"背道而驰. 我觉得Marcel的预测(注:四人中最好的一个XD...RSAA=15)大概是当中最中肯的一个. : Wang has succeeded despite his low K rate because he does two other : things well. He has good control, and he keeps the ball in the park. : Opponents have slugged just .373 against Wang so far in his career. 尽管小王拥有很低的三振率,但是他依然已经获得了成功--由於他另两件事情干得很好. 首先,他有很好的控球.此外,他能够把球"留在场内"--小王生涯中对手的长打率只有0.373. : If he can continue to do that, he should be ok. Here's how Wang's ERA : and FIP tracked over 2006. (这个图无法用tinyurl,so help youself) 如果他可以继续办到这些事,那麽他就能够继续在大联盟混下去. : Wang outperformed his FIP this season, but not to a level that would : show he was extremely lucky in 2006. Wang's FIP of 3.96 ranked 15th among : ERA-qualified AL starters last season. 小王去年在FIP(注)上的表现也十分突出,但还没到"十分幸运"的地步.(指的就是,作者并不 认为小王去年的表现算是他的大爆发--例如像是某些人合约年的表现XD)去年他的FIP在 大联盟局数足够的投手中排名第十五. 注:FIP,Fielding Independent Pitching 这个数据表达了一个投手在不考虑野手协助下,平均每局的投球状况.计算方式有点复杂, 是把(全垒打数*13+保送数[含四坏跟触身]*3-三振*2)这个数值再除以局数,最後加上一个 每季会有点差异的常数(大约3.2左右),以让这个数值可以和ERA对照. 简单地来说,假如一个投手 被全垒打越少(影响很大).保送越少.三振越多,在这个数值上就 会表现得越好.小王的三振并不多,他是靠着很少的被全垒打,以及很少的保送(好控球)而 使得他的FIP很优异.作者引用这个数据来表示,小王并不是只靠着队友的防守和打击才能 得到好成绩. : One thing Wang's struggled with in his career to this point is pitching : on the road. Here are Wang's career Home/Road splits, including batted-ball : types. http://tinyurl.com/2cl9rt 小王到现在为止,表现比较不好的一项就是他在客场出战的表现. (连结是小王在客场与主场表现的比较.) : For whatever reason, Wang gets a lower percentage of grounders on : the road. He gives up more fly balls and line drives as a result. : Wang's lefty-right splits are not as extreme as I thought they might be. : http://tinyurl.com/2396b5 不管是哪一季,小王在客场出战的滚地球率都比较低.同时地,他就被打了比较多的飞球和 平飞安打.不过,他面对左右打的状况倒没有我想像的那麽极端.(连结是面对左右打的比较) : Lastly, these splits are pretty interesting to me. Here's how Wang : has done based on the # of outs. : http://tinyurl.com/ypzddu 最後,这些分析让我觉得很有趣.这边是小王面对不同出局数的表现. : Here's the link(http://tinyurl.com/yvhn4o) to the tables above for those : who can't see them on the blog. : For whatever reason, with two outs, Wang's K rate spikes up considerably. : This tells me he may have the skill to strike out batters more frequently : than he has to this point, but is comfortable with his current approach : since it's working. It's worth mentioning that even if you apply that : 12.2% K/BF to all his innings, it's still just a K rate of about 4.5 : per 9 innings. 不管是什麽理由,小王在两出局後的三振率有显着的提升.这件事告诉了我们,他或许拥有 不错的三振技巧,只是他现在似乎在他"得"三振时才会送出三振.但是,既然现在这样子 还不赖,那似乎也没什麽需要改变的.额外一提,就算你把他在两出局後的三振率套上所有 的状况,那也只是个4.5左右的K/9而已. : I know what the numbers say, but I also know what I see when I watch : Wang pitch. Wang should be able to continue to succeed in the majors, : although he may have to make some adjustments along the way if his : current style stops working. I think he's talented enough to do that, : and I think he'll be fine, perhaps with some growing pains as he makes : those adjustments. 我知道数据在表达些什麽,但我也知道我看小王比赛时看到了些什麽.小王应该能够继续 在大联盟享有着他的成功,尽管他一路上大概会需要一点调整--如果他现在这个模式出了 点问题的话.我想他应该有足够的天赋去做到,而我也认为他可以表现得很好--大概不过是 在调整过程中会有点阵痛期罢了. : http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/ 这篇似乎也集合了不少的数据 不过要搞清楚那些评估公式真是令人头痛XD 终於翻完了 也请大家指教喽~ -- 翻译外电有什麽功用呢? 赚P币.学英文.拼优文和爆文....很多很多 但是 绝对不能少了一股passion--我翻外电 因为我爱 王建民 我爱 棒球 所以我在电脑前用生命翻译 用生命爱小王 (谜之音:没错!) 如果你觉得我翻的有问题 那一定要告诉我 这是我进步的动力 如果你觉得我翻的很棒 那就请你X->1 然後告诉我你的感受或者是心里的感动 我是翔鱼 请大家多多指教~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 210.60.107.237 ※ 编辑: soaringfish 来自: 61.225.14.58 (03/28 23:42)