今早看到的一篇，或許大家看了會覺得ooxx 不過，還是翻一下讓大家看看各種觀點 熬夜看球，精神不是太好，翻譯應該有不少錯漏，請指教包涵： -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 原文出處：http://0rz.net/b31NA Here's a sampling of the adjectives used to modify Chien-Ming Wang's sinking fastball ... hard powerful devastating filthy nasty electrifying heavy Got it? We'll return to Wang's super-sinker in a moment. 以下是一些用來形容王建民伸卡球的形容詞： 強硬的、有力的、有破壞力的、邪惡的、刁鑽的、令人振奮的、沈重的 看出些端倪了嗎？就讓我們馬上來看看王建民的超級伸卡球吧。 On April 30, 2005, Wang made his major league debut, starting for the Yankees against the Blue Jays. And in a game that proved exceptionally prophetic, Wang pitched seven innings, allowed only two runs … and didn't strike out a single Toronto hitter. 2005 4/30，洋基對上藍鳥，是王建民的大聯盟初登版。那場比賽中，王建民 投出了出乎大家意料的數字：7IP 2ER，但是，沒有三振掉任何一位藍鳥隊的 打者。 At the time, this seemed exceptionally anomalous; in nine Triple-A starts, Wang had struck out 51 batters. It wasn't, though. As a rookie last season, Wang's strikeout rate was low. This season, it's been exceptionally low. 當時這樣的數字讓人納悶，因為他在9場3A的比賽中，一共三振了51個打者， 但同樣的數字並沒有出現在他大聯盟的出賽中。王建民在去年菜鳥年的三振率 極低，即使是今年，這個數字仍然沒有改善。 How low? 到底有多低？ This season, 87 major league pitchers have thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Of those 87, 86 have struck out at least 3.5 batters per nine innings; the No. 86 slot is held by Twins sinkerballer Carlos Silva. 今年87位出賽局數足夠排上防禦率榜的投手中，其中86位每9局至少可三振3.5 人，那第86名的投手是雙城的伸卡球投手Carlos Silva。 Nate Cornejo Cornejo Kirk Rueter And No. 87? Why, our man Wang of course, at 2.96 strikeouts per nine innings. Now, it should be said that 2.96, while low, is not historically low. In 2004, Kirk Rueter -- a perennial "leader" in this category -- struck out only 2.65 batters per nine innings. And in 2003, Detroit's Nate Cornejo managed only 2.13 K's per nine innings. But those are the two lowest figures of the last 11 seasons, and generally the MLB "leader" is in the 3.5 K/9 range. 那第87名呢？還用問嗎，當然就是王建民的2.96 k/9了，儘管這個數字即使低， 也還沒打破歷史最低的K/9紀錄。2004年時，常年在K/9榜上「掛頭牌」的Kirk Rueter K/9值是2.65；2003年時，老虎隊的Nate Cornejo更是低到只有2.13， 但以上這兩位是過去11年來K/9值最低的兩位，一般而言，大聯盟K/9值的「領 先者」也都有3.5左右的「水準」。 And about those guys: Rueter's 2004 stat was easily the worst of his career. He posted a 4.98 ERA that season, was worse the next season, and this season he's spending a lot of time with his family. Cornejo posted a 4.67 ERA in his low-K season, spent most of the next season on the DL, and hasn't pitched in the majors since. So you might say the recent history of low-K pitchers hasn't been really encouraging (and the runner-up in this category is Carlos Silva, who's had problems of his own this season). 關於以上這兩位仁兄，Rueter在2004年時經歷他職業生涯的最低潮：ERA 4.98 ，隔年甚至更差，於是今年他把大部分的時間花在陪伴他的家人上；Cornejo在 他如此低K/9值的那一季繳出4.67 ERA的成績，隔年多數的時間都在傷兵名單上 ，此後就再也沒出現在場上了。所以你可能會說，從歷史經驗來看，過低的K/9 值實在不是件讓人振奮的事（看看今年的「亞軍」Carlos Silva，同樣也是有一 些問題在）。 What's amazing about Wang isn't how few batters he's struck out. What's amazing is that he's been able to strike out so few batters and post a 3.81 ERA, 11th best in the American League and wedged between up-and-comers Dan Haren and Erik Bedard. Way back in February, Peter Gammons predicted that Wang would be one of the 10 best pitchers in the league this season, and as strange as that prediction might have sounded to those of us watching Baseball Tonight, it might come true. 王建民讓大家吃驚的並不在於他的三振數是那麼的少，而在於他同時能夠繳出 3.81 ERA，排在Dan Haren和Erik Bedard中間為美聯第11名的成績（現在是第九 了，嘿嘿）。今年二月，Peter Gammons預測王建民將是今年聯盟10大頂級投手之 一，奇妙的是，對正觀看今晚比賽的我們來說，這言猶在耳的預測似乎就要成真了。 So how is he doing it? Wang's control has been good, but not great; four of the five American Leaguers with more innings have issued fewer walks, and a number of other starters have issued fewer walks per nine innings. The real key, as you might expect, has been Wang's pronounced ability to make batters hit the ball on the ground. He's given up only 11 home runs in 179 innings, and his 3.13 ground-to-fly ratio is tops in the league. 他到底是怎麼辦到的？王建民的控球雖然不錯，但還沒到達傑出的境界，美聯5個 出賽局數比他多的投手中，有4人的保送次數比他更少，其他有部分投手的BB/9也 比王建民低。你也許或說，真正的關鍵就在於他那已經眾所周知的能力--讓打者打 成滾地球。他在179局的投球中，只被打出11支HR，而他3.13的滾飛比更是聯盟頂尖。 That said, Wang's groundball stats aren't that impressive. They're not as good as Brandon Webb's or Derek Lowe's, and they're just a bit better than Aaron Cook's and Jake Westbrook's (all of these pitchers are noted sinkerballers and groundballers). 但我們得說，王建民的滾地球數據還不夠讓人印象深刻，它雖比Cook和Westbrook 好一點，可是畢竟不像Webb和Derek那麼傑出（這些人都被稱為伸卡球與滾地球投 手）。 When people in my line of work write about Wang's low strikeout rate, they have an easy explanation: "He's not trying to strike anybody out. He's trying to make them hit the ball on the ground." Perhaps. But couldn't the same be said of Webb and Lowe and Westbrook, the three top groundball pitchers of this century? Here are G/F ratios and K-rates for the aforementioned hurlers (counting Lowe's numbers only since his return to the rotation in 2002): G/F K/9 Webb 3.79 7.22 Lowe 3.32 5.28 Westbrook 2.74 4.76 Cook 2.71 3.37 Wang 3.06 3.23 當我的同事們在探討王建民的三振率時，他們簡單的得出這樣的結論：「他並不追 求三振打者，而是試圖讓打者把球擊成滾地球」，或許吧。那能否說王和本世界最 頂尖的三大滾球投手（Webb、Lowe、Westbrook）是一樣的呢？下面是前面提到的三 位投手的滾飛比與三振率： G/F K/9 Webb 3.79 7.22 Lowe 3.32 5.28 Westbrook 2.74 4.76 Cook 2.71 3.37 Wang 3.06 3.23 If there's a comparable pitcher to Wang, it's Aaron Cook, statistically and also stylistically. A few months ago, a scout told The Sporting News, "Cook has a great sinker -- absolutely great. He is kind of at the stage where Webb was at a couple of years ago. He's just finding enough consistency and command with it, but he can really just pound you with that sinker." Cook's not getting the acclaim that Wang is, because he's just 9-12 and he plays in Denver. But Cook's 3.99 ERA over the last three seasons (including 2006) is pretty impressive. And his strikeout rate last season was even lower than Wang's this season. 在統計上以及投球風格上，如果要說有一個和王建民比較的例子，應該是Aaron Cook。 幾個月前，一個球探告訴Sporting News：「Cook有真的很棒的伸卡球，他現在就像幾 年前的Webb一樣，雖然還在尋求持續而穩定的控制它，但也已經足夠用這種球來擊敗你 」，但是由於他目前所在的球隊是Denver，而且戰績只有9勝12敗，所以沒有像王建民 一樣得到那麼多的喝采。但是Cook過去三季3.99 ERA（包含今年）仍是相當傑出的，而 且他去年的三振率甚至比現在的王建民還要低。 So it can be done. A pitcher with an exceptionally low strikeout rate apparently can thrive, at least for a while, if his groundball rate is exceptionally high. Is it a winning formula, though, for long-term success? A certain well-known sabermetrician of my acquaintance, using tools beyond my reach, came up with a list of starting pitchers younger than 30 (Wang is 26 this season) who recorded seasons with exceptionally low strikeout rates and exceptionally good ERAs, all relative to their league. Here are the top 10 on the list, with their stats in the particular season and their career stats afterward: 所以我們可以這樣說：一個擁有異常低三振率的投手仍能大放異彩，只要他的滾球比率 夠高，至少也能夠有一段時間的成功。但是這能夠成為長期的勝利方程式嗎？我們來看 看下面這個名單：這些著名的球員，都是在30歲（王建民26歲）前投出極低三振率但卻 保持不錯防禦率的投手，看看他們在那個特別的球季以及那之後的生涯表現： Year Age 當年 之後(累積勝敗, ERA) Randy Jones 1975 25 20-12, 2.24 65-83, 3.54 Joe Horlen 1967 29 19- 7, 2.06 42-59, 3.63 Randy Jones 1976 26 22-14, 2.74 43-69, 3.80 Steve Kline 1972 24 16- 9, 2.40 9-17, 4.62 M. Stottlemyre 1969 27 20-14, 2.82 67-66, 3.11 Al. Anderson 1988 24 16- 9, 2.45 29-39, 4.36 Randy Jones 1978 28 13-14, 2.88 24-43, 4.00 Ricky Bones 1994 25 10- 9, 3.43 29-46, 5.27 Jim Barr 1974 26 13- 9, 2.74 68-75, 3.74 S. McGregor 1983 29 18- 7, 3.18 42-51, 4.81 Randy Jones -- who specialized in a slow sinker -- is the big star here, with three solid seasons in four years. But the single best predictor of future success has always been strikeout rate, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that not one of these eight pitchers won even 70 games in the majors after his special season. We would expect some regression to the mean, of course, but these are the best low-strikeout pitchers. Randy Jones這個專投慢速伸卡球的投手，是裡頭的最耀眼的，他在四年中有三年都有著 可靠的成績。但對於一個投手未來能否成功的最佳觀測點往往還是三振率，所以或許我 們並不驚訝在上列的8個投手中在那個沒特別的球季後沒有人能達到70勝，而且這些人已 經是最好的低三振率投手，在正常分析下，我們其實應該看這類（低三振率）投手的平均 值才對。 That doesn't bode particularly well for Chien-Ming Wang's future (or for that matter, Aaron Cook's). Yes, Wang throws a nasty, heavy, power sinker, which just might be the most devastating and electrifying pitch in the game. But if it really is that devastating, where are the strikeouts? Brandon Webb throws a filthy sinker, and strikes out five or six batters per start. Kevin Brown used to throw the vilest, grubbiest, scuzziest sinker in the world, and he would strike out six or seven batters per start. 但這並非特別用來預言王建民未來會如何（對Cook也是）。沒錯，王建民能夠在比賽中 投出極有破壞力而賞心悅目、刁鑽、沈重而有力的伸卡球，但如果這球真的如此驚人， 那為何無法三振打者呢？Webb也投的一手好伸卡，但他仍然同時可在每場球三振個5、6 個打者；KB也曾是世上最好的伸卡球投手之一，他也是一樣每次出賽總能三振個6、7人。 Maybe there's something different about Wang, or maybe there's something different about the game today. But if he builds a long and productive career on three strikeouts every nine innings, he'll be the first of his kind that most of us have ever seen. 也許王建民真的和其他人不同，或者是今日的比賽也已經和以往不同。如果他真能以每 9局僅三振3次的數字，維持長期具有競爭力的生涯成績，那他將是我們所知的這個領域 中前所未見的第一人。 --

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