今早看到的一篇，或许大家看了会觉得ooxx 不过，还是翻一下让大家看看各种观点 熬夜看球，精神不是太好，翻译应该有不少错漏，请指教包涵： -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 原文出处：http://0rz.net/b31NA Here's a sampling of the adjectives used to modify Chien-Ming Wang's sinking fastball ... hard powerful devastating filthy nasty electrifying heavy Got it? We'll return to Wang's super-sinker in a moment. 以下是一些用来形容王建民伸卡球的形容词： 强硬的、有力的、有破坏力的、邪恶的、刁钻的、令人振奋的、沈重的 看出些端倪了吗？就让我们马上来看看王建民的超级伸卡球吧。 On April 30, 2005, Wang made his major league debut, starting for the Yankees against the Blue Jays. And in a game that proved exceptionally prophetic, Wang pitched seven innings, allowed only two runs … and didn't strike out a single Toronto hitter. 2005 4/30，洋基对上蓝鸟，是王建民的大联盟初登版。那场比赛中，王建民 投出了出乎大家意料的数字：7IP 2ER，但是，没有三振掉任何一位蓝鸟队的 打者。 At the time, this seemed exceptionally anomalous; in nine Triple-A starts, Wang had struck out 51 batters. It wasn't, though. As a rookie last season, Wang's strikeout rate was low. This season, it's been exceptionally low. 当时这样的数字让人纳闷，因为他在9场3A的比赛中，一共三振了51个打者， 但同样的数字并没有出现在他大联盟的出赛中。王建民在去年菜鸟年的三振率 极低，即使是今年，这个数字仍然没有改善。 How low? 到底有多低？ This season, 87 major league pitchers have thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Of those 87, 86 have struck out at least 3.5 batters per nine innings; the No. 86 slot is held by Twins sinkerballer Carlos Silva. 今年87位出赛局数足够排上防御率榜的投手中，其中86位每9局至少可三振3.5 人，那第86名的投手是双城的伸卡球投手Carlos Silva。 Nate Cornejo Cornejo Kirk Rueter And No. 87? Why, our man Wang of course, at 2.96 strikeouts per nine innings. Now, it should be said that 2.96, while low, is not historically low. In 2004, Kirk Rueter -- a perennial "leader" in this category -- struck out only 2.65 batters per nine innings. And in 2003, Detroit's Nate Cornejo managed only 2.13 K's per nine innings. But those are the two lowest figures of the last 11 seasons, and generally the MLB "leader" is in the 3.5 K/9 range. 那第87名呢？还用问吗，当然就是王建民的2.96 k/9了，尽管这个数字即使低， 也还没打破历史最低的K/9纪录。2004年时，常年在K/9榜上「挂头牌」的Kirk Rueter K/9值是2.65；2003年时，老虎队的Nate Cornejo更是低到只有2.13， 但以上这两位是过去11年来K/9值最低的两位，一般而言，大联盟K/9值的「领 先者」也都有3.5左右的「水准」。 And about those guys: Rueter's 2004 stat was easily the worst of his career. He posted a 4.98 ERA that season, was worse the next season, and this season he's spending a lot of time with his family. Cornejo posted a 4.67 ERA in his low-K season, spent most of the next season on the DL, and hasn't pitched in the majors since. So you might say the recent history of low-K pitchers hasn't been really encouraging (and the runner-up in this category is Carlos Silva, who's had problems of his own this season). 关於以上这两位仁兄，Rueter在2004年时经历他职业生涯的最低潮：ERA 4.98 ，隔年甚至更差，於是今年他把大部分的时间花在陪伴他的家人上；Cornejo在 他如此低K/9值的那一季缴出4.67 ERA的成绩，隔年多数的时间都在伤兵名单上 ，此後就再也没出现在场上了。所以你可能会说，从历史经验来看，过低的K/9 值实在不是件让人振奋的事（看看今年的「亚军」Carlos Silva，同样也是有一 些问题在）。 What's amazing about Wang isn't how few batters he's struck out. What's amazing is that he's been able to strike out so few batters and post a 3.81 ERA, 11th best in the American League and wedged between up-and-comers Dan Haren and Erik Bedard. Way back in February, Peter Gammons predicted that Wang would be one of the 10 best pitchers in the league this season, and as strange as that prediction might have sounded to those of us watching Baseball Tonight, it might come true. 王建民让大家吃惊的并不在於他的三振数是那麽的少，而在於他同时能够缴出 3.81 ERA，排在Dan Haren和Erik Bedard中间为美联第11名的成绩（现在是第九 了，嘿嘿）。今年二月，Peter Gammons预测王建民将是今年联盟10大顶级投手之 一，奇妙的是，对正观看今晚比赛的我们来说，这言犹在耳的预测似乎就要成真了。 So how is he doing it? Wang's control has been good, but not great; four of the five American Leaguers with more innings have issued fewer walks, and a number of other starters have issued fewer walks per nine innings. The real key, as you might expect, has been Wang's pronounced ability to make batters hit the ball on the ground. He's given up only 11 home runs in 179 innings, and his 3.13 ground-to-fly ratio is tops in the league. 他到底是怎麽办到的？王建民的控球虽然不错，但还没到达杰出的境界，美联5个 出赛局数比他多的投手中，有4人的保送次数比他更少，其他有部分投手的BB/9也 比王建民低。你也许或说，真正的关键就在於他那已经众所周知的能力--让打者打 成滚地球。他在179局的投球中，只被打出11支HR，而他3.13的滚飞比更是联盟顶尖。 That said, Wang's groundball stats aren't that impressive. They're not as good as Brandon Webb's or Derek Lowe's, and they're just a bit better than Aaron Cook's and Jake Westbrook's (all of these pitchers are noted sinkerballers and groundballers). 但我们得说，王建民的滚地球数据还不够让人印象深刻，它虽比Cook和Westbrook 好一点，可是毕竟不像Webb和Derek那麽杰出（这些人都被称为伸卡球与滚地球投 手）。 When people in my line of work write about Wang's low strikeout rate, they have an easy explanation: "He's not trying to strike anybody out. He's trying to make them hit the ball on the ground." Perhaps. But couldn't the same be said of Webb and Lowe and Westbrook, the three top groundball pitchers of this century? Here are G/F ratios and K-rates for the aforementioned hurlers (counting Lowe's numbers only since his return to the rotation in 2002): G/F K/9 Webb 3.79 7.22 Lowe 3.32 5.28 Westbrook 2.74 4.76 Cook 2.71 3.37 Wang 3.06 3.23 当我的同事们在探讨王建民的三振率时，他们简单的得出这样的结论：「他并不追 求三振打者，而是试图让打者把球击成滚地球」，或许吧。那能否说王和本世界最 顶尖的三大滚球投手（Webb、Lowe、Westbrook）是一样的呢？下面是前面提到的三 位投手的滚飞比与三振率： G/F K/9 Webb 3.79 7.22 Lowe 3.32 5.28 Westbrook 2.74 4.76 Cook 2.71 3.37 Wang 3.06 3.23 If there's a comparable pitcher to Wang, it's Aaron Cook, statistically and also stylistically. A few months ago, a scout told The Sporting News, "Cook has a great sinker -- absolutely great. He is kind of at the stage where Webb was at a couple of years ago. He's just finding enough consistency and command with it, but he can really just pound you with that sinker." Cook's not getting the acclaim that Wang is, because he's just 9-12 and he plays in Denver. But Cook's 3.99 ERA over the last three seasons (including 2006) is pretty impressive. And his strikeout rate last season was even lower than Wang's this season. 在统计上以及投球风格上，如果要说有一个和王建民比较的例子，应该是Aaron Cook。 几个月前，一个球探告诉Sporting News：「Cook有真的很棒的伸卡球，他现在就像几 年前的Webb一样，虽然还在寻求持续而稳定的控制它，但也已经足够用这种球来击败你 」，但是由於他目前所在的球队是Denver，而且战绩只有9胜12败，所以没有像王建民 一样得到那麽多的喝采。但是Cook过去三季3.99 ERA（包含今年）仍是相当杰出的，而 且他去年的三振率甚至比现在的王建民还要低。 So it can be done. A pitcher with an exceptionally low strikeout rate apparently can thrive, at least for a while, if his groundball rate is exceptionally high. Is it a winning formula, though, for long-term success? A certain well-known sabermetrician of my acquaintance, using tools beyond my reach, came up with a list of starting pitchers younger than 30 (Wang is 26 this season) who recorded seasons with exceptionally low strikeout rates and exceptionally good ERAs, all relative to their league. Here are the top 10 on the list, with their stats in the particular season and their career stats afterward: 所以我们可以这样说：一个拥有异常低三振率的投手仍能大放异彩，只要他的滚球比率 够高，至少也能够有一段时间的成功。但是这能够成为长期的胜利方程式吗？我们来看 看下面这个名单：这些着名的球员，都是在30岁（王建民26岁）前投出极低三振率但却 保持不错防御率的投手，看看他们在那个特别的球季以及那之後的生涯表现： Year Age 当年 之後(累积胜败, ERA) Randy Jones 1975 25 20-12, 2.24 65-83, 3.54 Joe Horlen 1967 29 19- 7, 2.06 42-59, 3.63 Randy Jones 1976 26 22-14, 2.74 43-69, 3.80 Steve Kline 1972 24 16- 9, 2.40 9-17, 4.62 M. Stottlemyre 1969 27 20-14, 2.82 67-66, 3.11 Al. Anderson 1988 24 16- 9, 2.45 29-39, 4.36 Randy Jones 1978 28 13-14, 2.88 24-43, 4.00 Ricky Bones 1994 25 10- 9, 3.43 29-46, 5.27 Jim Barr 1974 26 13- 9, 2.74 68-75, 3.74 S. McGregor 1983 29 18- 7, 3.18 42-51, 4.81 Randy Jones -- who specialized in a slow sinker -- is the big star here, with three solid seasons in four years. But the single best predictor of future success has always been strikeout rate, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that not one of these eight pitchers won even 70 games in the majors after his special season. We would expect some regression to the mean, of course, but these are the best low-strikeout pitchers. Randy Jones这个专投慢速伸卡球的投手，是里头的最耀眼的，他在四年中有三年都有着 可靠的成绩。但对於一个投手未来能否成功的最佳观测点往往还是三振率，所以或许我 们并不惊讶在上列的8个投手中在那个没特别的球季後没有人能达到70胜，而且这些人已 经是最好的低三振率投手，在正常分析下，我们其实应该看这类（低三振率）投手的平均 值才对。 That doesn't bode particularly well for Chien-Ming Wang's future (or for that matter, Aaron Cook's). Yes, Wang throws a nasty, heavy, power sinker, which just might be the most devastating and electrifying pitch in the game. But if it really is that devastating, where are the strikeouts? Brandon Webb throws a filthy sinker, and strikes out five or six batters per start. Kevin Brown used to throw the vilest, grubbiest, scuzziest sinker in the world, and he would strike out six or seven batters per start. 但这并非特别用来预言王建民未来会如何（对Cook也是）。没错，王建民能够在比赛中 投出极有破坏力而赏心悦目、刁钻、沈重而有力的伸卡球，但如果这球真的如此惊人， 那为何无法三振打者呢？Webb也投的一手好伸卡，但他仍然同时可在每场球三振个5、6 个打者；KB也曾是世上最好的伸卡球投手之一，他也是一样每次出赛总能三振个6、7人。 Maybe there's something different about Wang, or maybe there's something different about the game today. But if he builds a long and productive career on three strikeouts every nine innings, he'll be the first of his kind that most of us have ever seen. 也许王建民真的和其他人不同，或者是今日的比赛也已经和以往不同。如果他真能以每 9局仅三振3次的数字，维持长期具有竞争力的生涯成绩，那他将是我们所知的这个领域 中前所未见的第一人。 --

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