https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/t_16x9/t_w2208/mlb/ywgfkwzdcxw3e9mukyz9.jpg World Series could turn into a track meet. Can either team slow the other down? 世界大賽可能演變成一場田徑競速賽。兩支球隊之中，有哪一隊能設法壓制對手的跑動攻 勢？ 12:00 PM GMT+8 Thomas Harrigan https://shorturl.at/25BYT Rays execute double steal in the 7th https://www.mlb.com/rays/video/rays-execute-double-steal-in-the-7th The Brewers and Rays have spent all season running wild. With a World Series title on the line, neither figures to slow down now. 釀酒人（Brewers）與光芒（Rays）整個球季都不斷展現積極的跑壘風格。如今世界大賽 冠軍就在眼前，兩隊都沒有理由在這個時候放慢腳步。 Speed could be one of the defining factors of this year’s Fall Classic. The Brewers are MLB’s fastest team, ranking first(*1) in both average Sprint Speed and total runs clocked at the elite threshold of 30 ft/sec or faster (aka a “ bolt”)(*2) in the regular season. The Rays aren’t as fast on average, but they recorded the second-most bolts behind Milwaukee. 速度可能成為今年世界大賽（Fall Classic）的關鍵因素之一。釀酒人是大聯盟速度最快 的球隊，在例行賽的平均衝刺速度（Sprint Speed），以及達到每秒 30 英尺或更快頂尖 速度的跑壘次數上，都排名全大聯盟第一。這種頂尖速度也被稱為「閃電衝刺」（bolt） 。光芒的平均速度雖然不如釀酒人，但在達到這項頂尖速度標準的跑壘次數上，仍高居全 大聯盟第二，僅次於密爾瓦基。 That speed has translated into plenty of stolen bases for both clubs. The Rays tied for second in the Majors with 164 steals during the regular season, while the Brewers ranked fifth with 162. 這樣的速度優勢，也轉化成兩隊大量的盜壘成功。光芒在例行賽期間以 164 次盜壘成功 ，並列大聯盟第二；釀酒人則以 162 次排名第五。 They've continued to run aggressively in October, too. Tampa Bay has stolen 11 bases without being caught over its nine playoff games. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has 10 steals on 12 attempts in eight games. 進入 10 月季後賽後，兩隊依然維持積極的跑壘策略。坦帕灣在 9 場季後賽中成功盜壘 11 次，而且從未遭到抓到出局。另一方面，密爾瓦基在 8 場比賽中嘗試盜壘 12 次，成 功 10 次。 With the Fall Classic set to get underway on Friday, here’s a look at the historical context of this matchup, the baserunners to watch and which club is better equipped to slow down the opposing running game. 隨著世界大賽預定於週五正式開打，以下將從歷史紀錄、值得關注的跑壘球員，以及兩隊 之中哪一隊更有能力壓制對手的跑壘攻勢等角度，分析這場對決。 A rare World Series matchup 罕見的世界大賽組合 Few World Series teams in recent memory have run as much as these two. In fact, only one pennant winner in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) has produced more regular season stolen bases than these Rays and Brewers did. 近年來，很少有參加世界大賽的球隊，像光芒與釀酒人這樣頻繁地發動盜壘。事實上，自 外卡制度時代（1995 年起）以來，只有一支贏得聯盟冠軍的球隊，在例行賽的盜壘成功次 數比今年的光芒與釀酒人更多。 Most stolen bases by a pennant winner, Wild Card Era 1. 2023 D-backs: 166 2. 2026 Rays: 164 3. 2026 Brewers: 162 4. 2001 Yankees: 161 5-T. 2014 Royals: 153 5-T. 1998 Yankees: 153 外卡制度時代以來，贏得聯盟冠軍球隊的例行賽盜壘成功次數排名 1. 2023 年響尾蛇（D-backs）：166 次 2. 2026 年光芒（Rays）：164 次 3. 2026 年釀酒人（Brewers）：162 次 4. 2001 年洋基（Yankees）：161 次 5. 並列：2014 年皇家（Royals）：153 次 5. 並列：1998 年洋基（Yankees）：153 次 A Fall Classic pairing between two prolific base-stealing teams such as these is rarer still. This is just the fourth time in the Divisional Era (since 1969) that two of the top five teams in stolen bases have played in that year's World Series. 像這樣由兩支擅長盜壘的球隊在世界大賽交手，更是難得一見。自分區賽制時代（1969 年 起）以來，這只是第四次有兩支例行賽盜壘次數排名前五的球隊，在同一年世界大賽中正 面交鋒。 It hasn’t happened since 2008, when a Rays team that led the Majors in steals (142) squared off with the Phillies, who ranked fourth (136). Although that Fall Classic went only five games, the two teams combined for 14 steals -- the most in a World Series this century. 上一次出現這種情況是在 2008 年。當時，例行賽以 142 次盜壘成功高居大聯盟第一的光 芒，對上以 136 次排名第四的費城人。儘管那年的世界大賽只打了五場，兩隊合計仍完成 14 次盜壘，是本世紀世界大賽中最多的紀錄。 It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers and Rays challenge that mark in 2026. 因此，若釀酒人與光芒在 2026 年世界大賽挑戰這項紀錄，也不會令人感到意外。 Chandler Simpson swipes his 43rd and 44th bases https://www.mlb.com/rays/video/chandler-simpson-swipes-his-43rd-and-44th-base Baserunners to watch 值得關注的跑壘球員 The Rays’ running attack revolves around Chandler Simpson, whose extreme offensive profile makes him unlike almost any other player in the sport today. Simpson has yet to homer in his career and rarely walks, but he batted .306 while leading MLB in infield hits (42) and the American League in steals (46) in 2026. He’s added three more steals in the playoffs. 光芒的跑壘攻勢主要圍繞著 Chandler Simpson 展開。他獨特的進攻型態，讓他成為當今 棒球界極少見的球員。Simpson 職業生涯至今尚未擊出全壘打，而且很少選到四壞球保送 ；然而，他在 2026 年例行賽打擊率高達 .306，並以 42 支內野安打領先大聯盟，同時以 46 次盜壘成功拿下美國聯盟盜壘王。進入季後賽後，他又增加了 3 次盜壘成功。 Taylor Walls (21) and Cedric Mullins (21) also reached the 20-steal plateau for the Rays in 2026, while Richie Palacios and Jonny DeLuca stole 17 bags apiece. Victor Mesa Jr. chipped in nine steals in 79 games for the Rays during the regular season. Those five have combined for eight steals this October. Taylor Walls（21 次）與 Cedric Mullins（21 次）在 2026 年也都為光芒完成至少 20 次盜壘。Richie Palacios 和 Jonny DeLuca 則各有 17 次盜壘成功。Victor Mesa Jr. 在例行賽為光芒出賽 79 場，貢獻 9 次盜壘成功。上述五名球員在今年 10 月的季後賽中 ，合計已完成 8 次盜壘。 The Brewers have no single speed threat like Simpson, but there’s more balance on Milwaukee’s side. While Tampa Bay’s lineup includes a number of plodders who rarely run, such as Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz, seven Brewers stole at least 11 bases this season. David Hamilton led the way with 30 stolen bases over 121 games, and he has gone 3-for-3 in steals this October despite starting only three of Milwaukee’s eight games. 釀酒人陣中沒有像 Simpson 這樣特別突出的單一速度威脅，但密爾瓦基的跑壘火力分布得 更加平均。坦帕灣的打線中，有幾名跑壘速度較慢、很少嘗試盜壘的球員，例如 Junior Caminero 和 Yandy Díaz；相較之下，釀酒人本季共有七名球員至少完成 11 次盜壘。 David Hamilton 是其中的領先者，他在 121 場比賽中完成 30 次盜壘。今年 10 月季後 賽期間，儘管他只先發出賽釀酒人 8 場比賽中的 3 場，仍把握機會完成 3 次盜壘，成 功率為 100％。 Jackson Chourio hasn’t had many opportunities to run while reaching base at a .211 clip in these playoffs, but his base-stealing bona fides are well established on the heels of three straight seasons with 20-plus stolen bases. Keep an eye on rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt, too. He stole 19 bases over 74 games after making his MLB debut in June. Jackson Chourio 在今年季後賽的上壘率只有 .211，因此可供他發動盜壘的機會不多。不 過，他的盜壘實力早已獲得充分證明，過去三個球季都至少完成 20 次盜壘。此外，也別 忽略菜鳥游擊手 Cooper Pratt。他在 6 月完成大聯盟初登場後，出賽 74 場便成功盜壘 19 次，同樣是釀酒人值得關注的速度戰力。 Controlling the running game 壓制對手的跑壘攻勢 With speed on both sides, the question becomes which team can keep it in check, and the Brewers did a much better job of that in 2026. Milwaukee allowed the second-fewest steals (71) in the Majors during the regular season, while Tampa Bay yielded the sixth most (131). 兩隊都擁有出色的速度戰力，因此，接下來的關鍵就在於哪一隊更能有效壓制對手的跑壘 攻勢。2026 年球季，釀酒人在這方面的表現明顯更勝一籌。密爾瓦基在例行賽僅被對手成 功盜壘 71 次，是全大聯盟第二少；坦帕灣則被對手成功盜壘 131 次，排名全大聯盟第六 多。 At first glance, the Brewers seem to hold a huge advantage on the catching front. William Contreras registered a caught-stealing rate of 34% in 2026, compared to just 15.9% for Liam Hicks. But catchers are only partially responsible for preventing steals, and Statcast's catcher throwing metric actually rated the two quite similarly(*3) based on how they did with the opportunities they saw. 乍看之下，釀酒人在捕手方面似乎擁有相當大的優勢。William Contreras 在 2026 年的 阻殺率達到 34％，而 Liam Hicks 的阻殺率則只有 15.9％。不過，防止對手盜壘並非只 取決於捕手的能力。根據 Statcast 的捕手傳球評估指標，考量兩人面對實際盜壘機會時 的表現後，他們的評價其實相當接近。 **兩人Arm Strength 臂力也差不多 It was a different story on the mound. The Brewers’ pitching staff has been one of MLB’s best at preventing steals(*4) this year. Rays pitchers, meanwhile ,rank among the worst. 然而，若將焦點轉向投手丘，情況就截然不同了。釀酒人的投手群本季在防止對手盜壘方 面，名列大聯盟最佳之列；相較之下，光芒的投手群在這方面的表現卻是全大聯盟最差的 幾支球隊之一。 Net bases prevented by pitchers, 2026 regular season + postseason Expresses the skill of pitchers at preventing baserunners from advancing on the bases, via steal attempts or pickoffs/balks 1. Cubs: +31 2. Royals: +27 3. Yankees: +27 4. Mets: +25 5-T. Brewers: +21 5-T. Nationals: +21 -- 28. Rays: -28 29. Marlins: -36 30. Blue Jays: -48 2026 年例行賽與季後賽：投手成功阻止對手推進的壘包淨值 這項數據用來衡量投手阻止跑者推進壘包的能力，包括防止盜壘，以及透過牽制出局或投 手犯規等方式，阻止跑者取得額外壘包。 1. 小熊（Cubs）：+31 2. 皇家（Royals）：+27 3. 洋基（Yankees）：+27 4. 大都會（Mets）：+25 5. 並列：釀酒人（Brewers）：+21 5. 並列：國民（Nationals）：+21 -- 28. 光芒（Rays）：-28 29. 馬林魚（Marlins）：-36 30. 藍鳥（Blue Jays）：-48 That gap shows up in the Game 1 starting pitching matchup between Milwaukee’ s Jacob Misiorowski and Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen. The hard-throwing Miz has proven incredibly difficult to steal against, while Rasmussen is one of the easiest pitchers to run on(*5). Only three pitchers had more steals against them than Rasmussen's 23. 這項數據上的差距，也反映在世界大賽第一戰的先發投手對決中：密爾瓦基由 Jacob Misiorowski 掛帥，坦帕灣則推出 Drew Rasmussen 先發。擁有強勁球速的 Misiorowski ，已證明自己是極難被對手盜壘的投手；相反地，Rasmussen 卻是大聯盟中最容易被跑者 發動盜壘的投手之一。本季只有三名投手被對手成功盜壘的次數比 Rasmussen 更多，而 Rasmussen 被成功盜壘的次數高達 23 次。 *官網首戰先發，釀酒人已掛上 Misiorowski；光芒仍為 TBD。 光芒公佈先發為 Nick Martinez Then again, Rasmussen has done well to keep the bases clean this October. He’ s allowed only 13 hits and three walks en route to a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings. 話雖如此，Rasmussen 在今年 10 月的季後賽中，仍成功限制對手上壘，表現相當出色。 他在 21 局投球中僅被擊出 13 支安打、投出 3 次四壞球保送，防禦率只有 1.29，有效 減少了對手發動跑壘攻勢的機會。 If either pitching staff is going to prevent this World Series from turning into a track meet, that's the surest way to do it. After all, runners can’t steal if they don’t get on base. 如果兩隊之中有哪一方的投手群能避免這場世界大賽演變成一場速度競賽，那麼最可靠的 方法，就是設法限制對手上壘。畢竟，跑者如果無法上壘，自然也就沒有機會發動盜壘。 ∮Thomas Harrigan is a reporter for MLB.com.∮ ──────────────────── (*1) ranking first Leaderboard -- type: TEAM ~ Sprint Speed (ft / sec) https://shorturl.at/UVCrq (*2) (aka a “bolt”) Bolt Definition https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/bolt https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard (*3) actually rated the two quite similarly Catcher Throwing Leaderboard -- type: CATCHERS ~ Catcher's CS Above Averag Statcast 指標，旨在衡量捕手在面對跑壘員盜壘嘗試時，將其成功阻殺的能力；該指標 會綜合考慮捕手所面臨的具體情境。 https://shorturl.at/U7Ik0 (*4) one of MLB’s best at preventing steals Pitcher Running Game Leaderboard -- type: TEAM ~ Net Bases Prevented 一項 Statcast 指標，旨在衡量投手阻止跑壘員在壘上推進（無論是透過盜壘嘗試，還是 透過牽製或投手犯規）的能力。 https://shorturl.at/b5Xi9 (*5) one of the easiest pitchers to run on Pitcher Running Game Leaderboard -- type: PITCHERS ~ Net Bases Prevented ~Net Bases Prevented 前面排名 Imanaga, Shota (今永昇太) 9 Bibee, Tanner 9 McGreevy, Michael 9 Bradley, Taj 8 Skenes, Paul 8 Messick, Parker 8 Griffin, Foster 8 https://shorturl.at/4wHAH --

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